Yesterday, now that we’re a week into October, Wonkette posted a link to the 20 Most Haunted Places in the World (not a Substack site.) Many of them, maybe most, are quite beautiful – if I were a ghost there, I’d likely stay too. Also, here’s a link about an incident from World War II which demonstrates just how dangerous classified informmation can be in the wrong hands (and mouths.) Finally, I received an email from Eric Swalwell advertising a closeout price on a Kevin McCarthy Catnip Toy: “While Kevin’s on his way to the litter box to try and salvage the mess he’s made of the GOP, our team’s throwing Kevin the celebration he deserves: A clearance sale. Our Kevin McCatnip toys are now marked down to just $15, so you can watch your cat bat Kevin around the living room the way you’d like to!” Tomorrow, I’ll be seeing Virgil, and will post when I get home as always.
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Grist – How does climate change threaten your neighborhood? A new map has the details.
Quote – If you’ve been wondering what climate change means for your neighborhood, you’re in luck. The most detailed interactive map yet of the United States’ vulnerability to dangers such as fire, flooding, and pollution was released on Monday by the Environmental Defense Fund and Texas A&M University. The fine-grained analysis spans more than 70,000 census tracts, which roughly resemble neighborhoods, mapping out environmental risks alongside factors that make it harder for people to deal with hazards. Clicking on a report for a census tract yields details on heat, wildfire smoke, and drought, in addition to what drives vulnerability to extreme weather, such as income levels and access to health care and transportation. Click through for article and map. I see the South is expecting below-freezing temperatures this weekend, except for Florida’s peninsula, whereas I’m expecting some warming. Go figure. I actually seem to have made a pretty good choice of where to live in view of climate change – not that anywhere is perfect, of course. Literally the entire world is endangered.
Wonkette – Jimmy Carter’s Solar Panels And The Mellow Allman Brothers Climate Paradise That Could’ve Been (OK, some of that headline may not be scrupulously fact-checked.)
Quote – Reagan reversed the clean energy initiatives Carter had put in place, a far more concrete rejection of renewable energy than the symbolic removal of the panels. Solar panels would return to the White House eventually. In 2002, the National Park Service installed solar electricity and water heating systems elsewhere on the White House grounds, although the George W. Bush administration chose not to publicize that. In 2014, Barack Obama installed a photovoltaic system on the White House roof. And in 2017, Jimmy Carter installed a solar farm on 10 acres of his peanut farm; it provides about half the electricity for Plains. Carter, who’s now in hospice care at home, celebrated his birthday quietly at home with Rosalyn, his wife of 77 years, and with his children and grandchildren. I’ll assume the party was lit by solar, too. Click through for full article. In 1976 none of us who weren’t scientists were all that accurate on what the answers were – and what they weren’t – and the scientists weren’t telling – or at least, not the truth. Jimmy was trying. Ronny rejected it all. I’ll go to my grave beliebing that the 1980 Presidential election was a catastrophe and a creator of more catastrophes – and I think I”ll be correct. I’ll for sure be in good company.
Yesterday, the radio opera was “La Fanciulla Del West” by Giacomo Puccini. If you have ever seen “The Girl of the Golden WEst in any other incarnation (there was a movie with Jeanette MacDonald and Nelson Eddy, for instance) You’ll know the story, complete with the blood dripping through the ceiling. (Estlin Usher got a pic of the set for that scene, but before the blood started dripping. He also got two of the bar and one of the final scene – no horse – but they look like they were taken from the very last row.) Minnie is one of the few Puccini heroines who survives the opera, but though the lovers are together, their future is far from certain as they ride off into the sunset. We can hope – and most if not all do – that it all works out. This is the last production from Beijing this season (and it was recorded in 2019); the rest of the schedule is in place, and I’m excited about it. There are some 21st century operas and some rarities from traditional composers – a lot will be new to me to hear, even if I have read about some of the operas. It will take us into December. And the Met’s radio schedule, which will pick up where this leaves off, is also out, and I am excited about it too. But that can wait. Also yesterday, the Carters showed up at the Plains Peanut Festival parade (in a vehicle). That choked me up. Finally, yesterday I had to bring out the space heater. Sigh. Now, off to see Virgil.
Cartoon – 24 new Jay + yom kippur (both loaded)
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HuffPost – The UAW Strike Poses The Biggest Test — And Opportunity — For Joe Biden’s Economic Agenda
Quote – Since taking office, Biden cast his domestic economic agenda as a repudiation of the free-market economic policies that have dominated since President Ronald Reagan won election in 1980. Reaganomics, with its “trickle-down” upper-income tax cuts, corporate deregulation and anti-labor actions, “failed the middle class, it failed America,” Biden said in a June speech. More than any other single event, how Biden handles the UAW strike could determine the political and policy success of his grand agenda. Click through for explanation. HuffPost is talking about siding with the strikers. And my second take suggests that is exactly what he is doing – maybe not exactly the way that HuffPost suggests, but maybe even more strongly.
Axios – Biden to join UAW strike and picket with auto workers
Quote – President Biden said he’ll picket alongside the United Auto Workers in Michigan next week — in a rare act of a president visibly joining a labor movement…. Biden, who has previously called himself the “most pro-union president ever,” had urged U.S. automakers last week to share more of their “record profits” with the workers on strike. Biden’s visit is set for the day before former President Trump is expected to appear in Michigan instead of attending the second GOP primary debate. Click through for details. HuffPost was not expecting this. But they also carry the story so if you like, you can compare the coverages.
Glenn Kirschner – Meadows loses in federal court; will be tried in Georgia state court together w/Trump in RICO case
Robert Reich – Why Does Flying Suck So Much?
Ring of Fire – Biden Comes Out Swinging With Harsh Insult Aimed At Climate Change Deniers
Brando has done vids for Meidas Touch, but this is on his own channel. Looks like we didn’t stop posting Maher a minute too soon.
Tennessee Brando – What Happened to Bill Maher?
Yesterday, Mitch McConnell froze again, Idalia made landfall in Florida’s “Big Bend” region (which is exactly where you think it would be), our Mitch emailed his list that he and his are in no danger, and, by evening, Idalia was down to a tropical storm. Late the night before, I read that Fani Willis has asked the judge to put all the speedy-trial-demanders into a single trial, and therefore on the same date, October 23, if legally possible. It hadn’t occurred to me that it might not be so I was assuming they would all be tried together (Eastman is number three.) It’s consederably more complex than I thought. Harry Litman explains the contingencies, in this vodeo, which has CC and therefore generates a transcript (click the 3 dots tp the right of the up-down-share line and “open trancript”.) I hope it works out with the minimum number of seperate trials (which i believe would be four – but what do I know.) Georgia’s doing us all a big favor and should not be required to break the bank to do it.
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The Daily Beast – Family Recalls Jacksonville Shooting Victim’s Last Call With Daughter
Quote – Several other relatives told the Associated Press that Gallion was a devoted father, and though his relationship with the child’s mother didn’t work out, he still had the respect of her family. “He never missed a beat,” Sabrina Rozier, the child’s maternal grandmother, said Sunday at a vigil honoring the victims. “He got her every weekend. As a matter of fact, he was supposed to have her (Saturday).”… “My heart melted for my granddaughter, because she was his world and he was her world. And now we’re trying to figure out how to tell her, because we haven’t told her yet and she’s only 4.” Click through for more. I do appreciate the Beast telling the story in a respectful way. We don’t always see that.
Robert Reich – Globaloney: Why the Democrats’ love affair with “free trade” is over
Quote – But “globalization” is not a force of nature. How it works and whom it benefits or harms depend on specific, negotiated rules about which assets will be protected and which will not. In most trade deals, the assets of American corporations (including intellectual property) have been protected. If another nation adopts strict climate regulations that reduce the value of U.S. energy assets in that country, the country must compensate the American firms. Wall Street has been granted free rein to move financial assets into and out of our trading partners. But the jobs and wages of American workers have not been protected. Why shouldn’t American corporations that profit from trade be required to compensate American workers for job losses due to trade? Click through for full assessment. It’s not news that unregulated anything helps only the wealthiest and hurts the reat of us. This does point up that regulation itself needs to be both accurately designed andproperly administered
CPR – [Senator] John Hickenlooper showed up at a SAG-AFTRA rally, and not just as a supporter — he’s paid his dues (literally)
Quote – He was there not just as a supporter, he said, but as a dues-paying member of SAG-AFTRA’s local chapter. That’s because the senator’s cousin, the late filmmaker George Hickenlooper, had a habit of casting him for bit parts. Among them was the film “Casino Jack,” released in 2010 when Hickenlooper was mayor of Denver. He played a U.S. Senator with one big line: “Remove that man.” “My cousin George made me do 28 takes,” Hickenlooper told the crowd near the City Park boathouse. Click through – I’m not going to be able to keep up three a day, even in a week like this, but I thought this was cute, and I didn’t want to bump anything else for something this light. It was news to me.
Yesterday, I was able to keep up with Hilary, but I had to hunt for it. I may be misremembering, but it seems to me we don’t have to search for news on hurricanes and tropical storms in The South – instead it’s challenging to avoid updates. That may have something to do with “If it bleeds, it leads,” since there are few or no fatalities from Hilary. And that has to do both with the storm losing power and also with the measures taken by governments to prepare. I did find a WaPo article which i was able to see and read, I assume because it’s been so long since I have tried that its server forgot me. The overall impression was “Major cleanup, but lives spared.” Incidentally, thee’s another storm in the Gulf heading for Texas.
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PolitiZoom – Poll Shows MAGAs Trust Trump More Than Their Own Mother
Quote – However bizarre, it’s true. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll show that Trump voters aka MAGAs, trust their Mango Messiah above family, church leaders and other conservative figures — and by no small margin, we want you to know. By a considerable margin. He may be Trumpty Dumpty to you and me but to them he is the God of their understanding. Take a look and try not to let your jaw hit the laptop, those keyboards are hard…. They may trust Ben Shapiro or Franklin Graham or Mom or brother to some extent but not like they trust Trumpty. Yes, it is enough to make you sick. Click through for article. I’ve always thought that all humor is based on some kind of incongruity – and this is so incongruous that it ought to be hysterical – but it isn’t (at not least in the humorous sense.) When my mom was alive, there were people I might have tructed more than I did her on some particular topics – quantum physics, for instance – but not on “common sense” matters. Incidentally, it gets stranger the farther you read, and the trend continues into the comments.
Axios – Trump’s bail set at $200,000 in Georgia 2020 election case
Quote – Former President Trump’s bail has been set at $200,000 in the Fulton County prosecution over his alleged efforts to subvert 2020 election results in Georgia.,,,
Monday’s court filing, signed by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and Trump’s lawyers, also includes strict conditions on witness intimidation.
“The defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice,” per the court filing.
“The above shall include, but are not limited to, posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media,” the order adds. Click through for likely even more details than I had. Of course he will post the bail., and of course he will violate tha conditions. And that will be when it gets intresting.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
So today is – or was – depending on when you get here – the first hurricane to land on California in living memory – and when I say living memory, I mean the people who were alive in California at the time of the Spanish conquest. And probably much longer – but we don’t have records on that. As a native of California myself, I didn’t feel that I could ignore this. But it’s an issue much bigger than California – after all, New York didn’t get hurricanes either – until it did. Climate change is bringing tropical storms out of tropical areas nd into the temperate zone. I don’t think it’s wise to wait until the first hurricane hits Alaska to read up on, and discuss, the subject.
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Hurricane Hilary triggers Southern California’s first tropical storm warning ever, with heavy rain and flash flooding forecast
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA NESDIS
Hurricane Hilary headed for Mexico’s Baja peninsula on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, and was forecast to speed into Southern California at or near tropical storm strength on Sunday. For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for large parts of Southern California and warned of a “potentially historic amount of rainfall” and “dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.”
Hurricane scientist Nick Grondin explains how the storm, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring flash flooding, wind damage and mudslides to the U.S. Southwest.
How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?
California has only had one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called the Long Beach Tropical Storm. It caused about US$2 million dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A hurricane in 1858 came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.
What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are more common in the region than people might think.
Just last year, Hurricane Kay took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, Hurricane Nora in 1997 made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, particularly to fruit trees and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year. National Hurricane Center
A study led by atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Ritchie in 2011 found that, on average, about 3.1 remnant systems from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.
Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, though it wouldn’t be unprecedented. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a moderate risk of flooding across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.
The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
What are the risks?
The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.
In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts on Aug. 18 showed Death Valley likely to get about 4 inches of rain over a three-day period from the storm – that’s about twice its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding Aug. 19-22 and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds.
As Hurricane Hilary heads toward landfall in Baja California, forecasters are expecting dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage in Mexico before the storm reaches Southern California.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Service offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This article was updated Aug. 19, 2023, with the National Hurricane Center upgrading the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, no matter how far one lives from a coast, it’s time to start thinking about what to do in the event of a hurricane. If you’re separated from the coast by a tall mountain range, you may have a little extra time – but I doubt whether California’s coastal range (which we always belittlingly referred to as “the foothills”) are going to stop a storm. And the Mississippi River would appear to give any hurricane a straight route northwards. Anyone outside the US, I’m not knowledgeable enough to address.
Beau of the Fifth Column, who lives in Florida, has made many a video advising people there, and through the south and even the northeast, how to prepare. They include about everything you would think of and some things that you wouldn’t. He just made his first one for California. It includes tips on how to read the weather maps – excellent advice for a newbie – but I didn’t hear him mention having a plan for your pets in case evacuation becomes necessary. Well, maybe from fires, Californians will be aware of that.
