Yesterday, my second cousin Ann, whom I haven’t seen for just over 21 years, phoned to say Merry Christmas. She doesn’t use email, so we have been out of touch for that long, except for Christmas cards, and we havn’t been very chatty in those. I had just finished typing today’s first short take, and I told her about it, and she said that was a wonderful Christmas gift from me. I hope everyone feels that way. I certainly thought it was a BFD. I tried for all good news today, so I have probably left something out … but I hope I can do it again tomorrow.
Cartoon –
Short Takes
Crooks and Liars – WOW: Walter Reed Scientists Develop A Universal Covid Vaccine
Quote – The achievement is the result of almost two years of work on the virus. The Army lab received its first DNA sequencing of the COVID-19 virus in early 2020. Very early on, Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch decided to focus on making a vaccine that would work against not just the existing strain but all of its potential variants as well. Click through for more. Of course thos would take longer than the strain-targeted vaccines to develop. I’m surprised it’s even possible. WO# indeed.
Law & Crime – Ex-Cop Kim Potter Convicted of All Charges for Shooting and Killing Daunte Wright
Quote – To convince the jury of the highest count, first-degree manslaughter, the state was required to prove that Potter caused Wright’s death during the commission of a lesser offense. Here, the lesser alleged offense was the reckless handling or use of a firearm. That lesser offense had to be proven in full and beyond a reasonable doubt as follows, according to the jury instructions the judge read before deliberations. Notably, the state was required to prove that Potter’s actions were a “conscious and intentional” act: Click through for story. It is a step in the direction of accountability for police. Although it does sound like this one knew from the get-go that she was responsible, which is unusual.
AP News – Tribes Lacking Water see glimmer of hope with massive bill
Quote – Now, there’s a glimmer of hope in the form of a massive infrastructure bill signed last month that White House officials say represents the largest single infusion of money into Indian Country. It includes $3.5 billion for the federal Indian Health Service, which provides health care to more than 2 million Native Americans and Alaska Natives, plus pots of money through other federal agencies for water projects. Click through fpr details and scope. It is a crying shame that native Americans, who as a groupdid more over more centuries to preseve clean and ample water supply are among the groups being cheated out of it. The bill referred to here is the infrastructure bill which already passed and has been signed into law. May it be a lifeline.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
We never used to, and mostly still don’t, think of winter as tornado season. (We also don’t think of earthquakes in the eastern United Sttes, ot hurricanes reaching New Yor, or sea level rise.) But it looks as though we are going to have to start thinking about all of these things.
Of course there is a lot science still doesn’t know. One limitation of science is that in order to actually study something – as opposed to making a model, which is what climate scientists have been doing – that something has to actually exist. And I guarantee there are many things we undoubtedly hope we will never have to know, if they don’t make it from model to reality. But winter tornadoes are not one of those things. They are here.
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Tornadoes and climate change: What a warming world means for deadly twisters and the type of storms that spawn them
The deadly tornado outbreak that tore through communities from Arkansas to Illinois on the night of Dec. 10-11, 2021, was so unusual in its duration and strength, particularly for December, that a lot of people including the U.S. president are asking what role climate change might have played – and whether tornadoes will become more common in a warming world.
Both questions are easier asked than answered, but research is offering new clues.
I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies severe convective storms like tornadoes and the influences of climate change. Here’s what scientific research shows so far.
Climate models can’t see tornadoes yet – but they can recognize tornado conditions
To understand how rising global temperatures will affect the climate in the future, scientists use complex computer models that characterize the whole Earth system, from the Sun’s energy streaming in to how the soil responds and everything in between, year to year and season to season. These models solve millions of equations on a global scale. Each calculation adds up, requiring far more computing power than a desktop computer can handle.
To project how Earth’s climate will change through the end of the century, we currently have to use a broad scale. Think of it like the zoom function on a camera looking at a distant mountain. You can see the forest, but individual trees are harder to make out, and a pine cone in one of those trees is too tiny to see even when you blow up the image. With climate models, the smaller the object, the harder it is to see.
Tornadoes and the severe storms that create them are far below the typical scale that climate models can predict.
What we can do instead is look at the large-scale ingredients that make conditions ripe for tornadoes to form.
A researcher with NOAA and the Oklahoma Cooperative Institute prepares a light detection and ranging system to collect data at the edge of a storm. Mike Coniglio/NOAA NSSL
Two key ingredients for severe storms are (1) energy driven by warm, moist air promoting strong updrafts, and (2) changing wind speed and direction, known as wind shear, which allows storms to become stronger and longer-lived. A third ingredient, which is harder to identify, is a trigger to get storms to form, such as a really hot day, or perhaps a cold front. Without this ingredient, not every favorable environment leads to severe storms or tornadoes, but the first two conditions still make severe storms more likely.
By using these ingredients to characterize the likelihood of severe storms and tornadoes forming, climate models can tell us something about the changing risk.
Rising global temperatures are driving significant changes for seasons that we traditionally think of as rarely producing severe weather. Stronger increases in warm humid air in fall, winter and early spring mean there will be more days with favorable severe thunderstorm environments – and when these storms occur, they have the potential for greater intensity.
What studies show about frequency and intensity
Over smaller areas, we can simulate thunderstorms in these future climates, which gets us closer to answering whether severe storms will form. Several studies have modeled changes to the frequency of intense storms to better understand this change to the environment.
We are already seeing evidence in the past few decades of shifts toward conditions more favorable for severe storms in the cooler seasons, while the summertime likelihood of storms forming is decreasing.
The December tornadoes destroyed homes and buildings in communities from Arkansas to Illinois and claimed dozens of lives, including people in Mayfield, Ky. Scott Olson/Getty Images
For tornadoes, things get trickier. Even in an otherwise spot-on forecast for the next day, there is no guarantee that a tornado will form. Only a small fraction of the storms produced in a favorable environment will produce a tornado at all.
Several simulations have explored what would happen if a tornado outbreak or a tornado-producing storm occurred at different levels of global warming. Projections suggest that stronger, tornado-producing storms may be more likely as global temperatures rise, though strengthened less than we might expect from the increase in available energy.
The impact of 1 degree of warming
Much of what we know about how a warming climate influences severe storms and tornadoes is regional, chiefly in the United States. Not all regions around the globe will see changes to severe storm environments at the same rate.
In a recent study, colleagues and I found that the rate of increase in severe storm environments will be greater in the Northern Hemisphere, and that it increases more at higher latitudes. In the United States, our research suggests that for each 1 degree Celsius (1.8 F) that the temperatures rises, a 14-25% increase in favorable environments is likely in spring, fall and winter, with the greatest increase in winter. This is driven predominantly by the increasing energy available due to higher temperatures. Keep in mind that this is about favorable environments, not necessarily tornadoes.
What does this say about December’s tornadoes?
To answer whether climate change influenced the likelihood or intensity of tornadoes in the December 2021 outbreak, it remains difficult to attribute any single event like this one to climate change. Shorter-term influences like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation may also complicate the picture.
There are certainly signals pointing in the direction of a stormier future, but how this manifests for tornadoes is an open area of research.
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================================================================ Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, this is an article aimed at general audiences. In the comments, another scientist addresses another aspect, and Professor Allen replaies that that was omitted deliberately to keep the article clearer for the general reader. In actuality, there are many factors which affect, say, tornadoes. As a general reader myself, I would ask something mike, “Given other contributing factors such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, if surface warming were not present, would this tornado have happened when it did,. the way it did?” And I suspect the answer to that is “No.” But even if it’s only “Maybe,” I don’t understand why we still continue to take such chances with our and other people’s lives.
Glenn Kirschner – Mark Meadows’ Treason-Dream PowerPoint and His Upcoming Contempt of Congress Charge
Meidas Touch – Treason Texts
Thom Hartmann – What Should Liberals Do About Rural America?
Taylor Mali – What Teachers Make (a classic)
Transcript: He says, “The problem with teachers is what’s a kid gonna learn from someone who decided his best option in life is to become a teacher?” [Laughs] He reminds the other dinner guests that “It’s true what they say about teachers – that those who can, do, and those who can’t, teach.” [Laughs] I decide to bite my tongue instead of his and resist the urge to remind the other dinner guests that it’s also true what they say about lawyers, because we’re eating after all, and this is polite conversation. “I mean, you’re a teacher, Taylor. Be honest – what do you make?” and I wish he hadn’t done that – asked me to nebe honest – because, you see, I have a policy about honesty and ass-kicking, which is if you ask for it, then I have to let you have it.
I make kids work harder than they ever thought they could. I can make an C+ feel like a Congressional Medal of Honor, and I can make an A- feel like a slap in the face – “How dare you waste my time with anything less than your very best.”
You want to know what I make? I make kids sit through 40 minutes of study hall in absolute silence. “No, you cannot work in groups…. Why won’t I let you go to the bathroom? Because you’re bored and you don’t really have to go.”
You want to know what I make? I make parents tremble in fear when I call home at around dinnertime. “I just want to talk to you about something that your son did. He said, ‘Leave the kid alone. I still cry sometimes. Don’t you?’ and it was the noblest act of courage that I have ever seen.” I make parents see their children for who they are, and who they can be. can be
You want to know what I make? I make kids question. I make them criticize and make them apologize. I make them read, I make them write write write, I make them spell “definitely beautiful” over and over and over until they can never misspell either one of those words again. I make them show all their work in math, and then hide it on their final drafts in English. I make them realize that if you’ve got this [points to head] then you follow this [points to heart] and if somebody tries to judge you based on what you think you give them this [shows middle finger].
Let me break it down for you so you know what I say is true: I make a goddamn difference now what about you
Really American – Misinformation leads to GOP Deaths
Glenn Kirschner – Federal Appeals Court Rules Against Trump; Announces “Direct Linkage” Between Trump & Capitol Attack
MSNBC – Brian Wiliams’s Farewell (It ends around 3:40 but I can’t cut off the end. Watch the rest if you want to.)
Thom Hartmann – Democracy’s Only Hope Is With BRAVE Progressives! [Thom says we are among the brave – we are paying attention. Not that those of us who see it don’t need to do more.]
politicsrus – Kentucky HD
Crooks and Liars – Jen Psaki (This is even more blunt than usual, and I applaud.)
If Smart TV Commercials Were Honest | Honest Ads
Beau – Let’s talk about the FDA, an FOIA, and 75 years….
Yesterday also quiet. Not that I got a whole lot done. I was trying to rest, and more or less did.
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Short Takes
Daily Kos (David Neiwert) – Right-wing so-called ‘journalists’ exploit Waukesha tragedy, drawing neo-Nazis there to protest
Quote – Ngo also disingenuously proffered as evidence a post by Brooks he described as “about how to get away with running people over on the street”—even though the post in question was actually written by an ex-Minneapolis police officer who encouraged drivers to run down BLM protesters, and Brooks had posted it as evidence of violent police attitudes. Of course, there is still zero evidence that Brooks ever participated in any BLM march or engaged in any protest organizing. Click through for details. I am honestly more sick of fake journalists than I am of fake news itself. And don’t think there aren’t any on the left. We have to be responsible for moderating our confirmation bias … because RWNJs certainly will not moderate theirs.
The Nib – Why Are Everyone’s Catalytic Converters Being Stolen?
Quote – But catalytic converters have been round for nearly 50 years. So why is this happening now? The economic downturn caused by the pandemic might be one factor. Another is the soaring price of the precious metals that put the catalyst in catalytic. Click through. Yes, this is what you might call a “graphic article.” But try to find a non-graphic one which lays out this information so clearly.
The 19th Explains: Women may soon qualify for the draft. Here’s what you need to know.
Quote – Kara Dixon Vuic, who studies gender and the U.S. military at Texas Christian University, said the passage of this amendment would be “huge, though largely symbolic” when it comes to the fight for women’s rights and gender equity in the military. “Right now, the only legal difference between what men and women do as civilians is men sign up for selective service,” said Vuic, who is currently writing a book on the history of military draft eligibility in the country. “It’s not that women don’t have to; it’s that they can’t.” Click through for the scoop. I have always felt that if one really wants to be treated equally, then one must accept being treated equally. As obvious as that soounds, it seems to be a difficult concept when it comes to feminism. Perhaps that at least partially explains why misogyny is more powerful than racism (as the 2016 election proved.)
