Ahoy, me hearties (today is International Talk Like a Pirate Day.) Yesterday, I deliberately went looking for climate news becuse I wantedto use tis cartoon today. I realize that sounds pretty shallow. But it is true that the climate is getting pushed out of the news in favor of violence and other stupidities. And not finding any climate-related news in my ususal sources made me more aware that more attention needs to be paid to it. It’s enough to make a pirate say Aaarrrgh! And I may do it again before the election, though that’s not a promise.
The AP could not resist putting a few beautiful photos in among the more obviously disastrous ones in this photo-essay. But it’s still quite eye-opening. Something else that is eye-opening is that herein Colorado we are starting to have climate refugees who have been our neighbors. At 5000 feet ablove sea level, it’s not from sea level rise, nor is it from flooding, or heavy snowfall (which quite reasonably might happen here, as evaporation puts more water into the air. The last two blizzards here were IMO caused by that.) It is related to dryness though. There’s a fire in Larimer County (where Virgil grew up) which has taken a lot of homes and displaced a lot of people. Our wildfire seasons are not as bad as California’s yet, but we are headed that way.
And Reuters has a potpourri of snippet articles, some of which are as devastating as some of the pictures from the AP. Fortunately that’s not true of all of them.
Yesterday, I read Joyce Vance’s take on Jack Smith’s brief, filed Tuesday in the documents case. She says it’s very clear that Cannon is wrong and that, if it would stop at the 11th Circuit, she would be reversed and that would be the end of it. But if it goes to the Supremes, anything might happen. She doesn’t mention that now Republicans are claiming that Harris in ineligible to be President because of the Dred Scott decision (which of course the Fourteenth and Fiftennth amendments make mincemeat of.) But yeah, with Republicans, anything can happen – especially anything unconstitutional. Also – probably because of the time difference – she’s vacationing in Scotland – last night’s post went up in the daytime, so I can link to it also. It’s about the superseding indictment in the DC (insurrection0 case.
Arbuckle, CA is in Colusa County, about 50 miles northwest of Sacramento. The whole county is rural, mostly agricultural, with rice v=beine the main crop, but almonds and wallnuts are also brown enough to get mentions. The article calls Arbuckle a “one-stoplight town.” The Census Bureau calls it a “designated place.” I expect that in the Middle Ages it would have been called a “hamlet.” None of that is any excuse for the behavior cited in the lawsuit not otherwise mentioned in the article. You know, if I wanted to, I could chare an article like this every day and never run out of material. And this is a huge part of or problems as a nation – this and the fact that for every lawsuit there are heaven knows how many more incidents which we never hear about, and never will.
Yesterday, Trinette was by. She brought in my mail, including my ballot. which I filled out, and she took it with her to mail. Such a gem. She also said her son will be by this week to tackle my weeds (That is contingent on it not being too hot, and also on there not being lightning, of course.) He’s a gem also.
As scary as this is, I think I see one small good takeaway, and that is, thank goodness those extremists who make the local extremists look normal are no longer in California. The more of them move to Idaho, the better for California.
For once, the Washington Post has figured out that something important is important (gift link from Robert Hubbell). This would destroy our economy so fast that our heads would swim for the rest of our lives (which would not be that long actually.)
Yesterday, after looking into and at the State of the Union address, it was impressed upon me that someone – some journalist – some newspaper or website – should each year find out and make public all the guests invited by the legislators (and anyone else who is allowed an invite.) Legislators speak through their guests, sometimes well and sometimes not so well. But I’d like the opportunity to hear what they are all saying. Just two examples – one legislator invited the first person born through IVF in the US. My Senator Bennet invited the head of Ukrainians of Colorado. CPR News has learned and published the identities of the guests (if any) of all members of the Colorado delegation except two who had not decided. And that’s helpful. But I’d like to see more. Also yesterday, I heard from Barry Burton that Carrie has broken her leg and is in the hospital – there’s a steel bar on her femor now and a cast and a full leg brace over it. And she is not getting anywhere near the care I was getting. If anyone would like to call her, shoot me an email and I’ll send you her cell number. It’s not terribly new, but it has changed since she moved to Alabama. And in any case, thoughts and prayers will be appreciated
If you remember the Biblical story of the widow’s mite – you will have no trouble recognizing the similarity. I hope, wherever he is, that TC can see it or otherwise learn about it. (Hanky alert)
This is a referral from Wonkette. It does explain why I was going to be grieving over the Cakifornia Senate primary no matter what. I did know – because an email from Katie informed me – that losers of the primary would not be able to return to Congress. So, yes, we have lost Katie and we have lost Barbara Lee also. Of course it’s not impossible for her to run again in two years. But as a single mom who never took a penny of rich people’s money, it might be prohibitively difficult for her.
Yes, this is a BFD. And just think where it might be able to go from here. I’m thinking college football, since those players are in just as much danger from concussion as the pros – if not more, since they are younger and more fragile.
Yesterday, arguments about whether DiFi should resign came to an end with her passing. Governor Newsom has said he will make an interim appointment. Even Chuck Grassley said nice things about her. Since I was born and grew up in California, in the San Francisco Bay Area, this feels like the end of an era to me. I have known of her, and of her achievements, for so long – it’s true that at my age when someone who has been a fixture of one’s life for so long, one doesn’t grieve just that person, but also one’s own lost youth. Also, The White House made available online a partial transcript of Joe Biden’s speech at the John McCain Library in Tempe, AZ. There’s also an opportunity at this link to sign up for pratial transcripts whenever anyone in the administration says something significant. Wow. The first plea deal in the Fulton COunty case was sealed. And last (and kind of least compared to the preceding) my Dark Brandon mug came. So I immediately made a cup of coffee. And it works as advertised (what with being carried in a postal vehicle in the sun all day and then stuffed into a hot mailbox, the eyes were actually red when I opened it. The directions advised putting it in the freezer for a few minutes – which worked like a charm.)
Cartoon –
Short Takes –
The Daily Beast – Why Are Republicans Playing Politics With Ukraine?
Quote – Over the course of more than 30 interviews with members of Congress, The Daily Beast set out to trace exactly how and why providing aid to Ukraine became such a controversial endeavor among Republicans. To Democrats, the $24 billion package in front of Congress right now is the best money Washington could spend on national defense…. The issue, many Republicans in Congress agree, shouldn’t be partisan. But these Republicans are also keenly aware of the reality—that it is…. The story of how that happened is a case study in the workings of a congressional GOP loyal to Donald Trump, one in which the former president and a small handful of right-wing figures wield immense power to set the agenda of the party base, which in turn commands immense power to shape the actions of lawmakers eager to use uncompromising tactics to achieve their goals. Click through for full article. One thing that leaps out – if the poll cited is accurate, and 55% of Americans nationally do not support aiding Ukreaine, we need to ne doing a better job of messaging. 62% Democratic support isn’t enough.
Colorado Public Radio – What the impending government shutdown means for Coloradans
Quote – Perhaps the biggest impacts will be felt by the state’s approximately 38,000 federal employees and 12,000 active duty military service members, who will not get a paycheck during a government shutdown. Their first missed payday will be October 13, if the shutdown drags on that long…. Gov. Jared Polis is ordering the Colorado Department of Natural Resources to develop a plan to use state money to keep the parks and other federal land in the state open, although any plan will need a federal sign off…. The governors of Arizona and Utah have also said they’ll use state funds to keep some of their parks open…. States that opened their parks in 2013 were never reimbursed…. When it comes to airport travel, a shutdown could fuel passenger exasperation and worsen staffing challenges at Denver International Airport…. Click through. As promised, here’s the shutdown article. Not every state is going to step in on National Parks (or anything else), and it’s not certain that Colorado is this time. But – like everything else – red states are going to suffer the most. And there’s more. CPR really looked at everything they could. It’s very thorough.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
So today is – or was – depending on when you get here – the first hurricane to land on California in living memory – and when I say living memory, I mean the people who were alive in California at the time of the Spanish conquest. And probably much longer – but we don’t have records on that. As a native of California myself, I didn’t feel that I could ignore this. But it’s an issue much bigger than California – after all, New York didn’t get hurricanes either – until it did. Climate change is bringing tropical storms out of tropical areas nd into the temperate zone. I don’t think it’s wise to wait until the first hurricane hits Alaska to read up on, and discuss, the subject.
==============================================================
Hurricane Hilary triggers Southern California’s first tropical storm warning ever, with heavy rain and flash flooding forecast
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA NESDIS
Hurricane Hilary headed for Mexico’s Baja peninsula on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, and was forecast to speed into Southern California at or near tropical storm strength on Sunday. For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for large parts of Southern California and warned of a “potentially historic amount of rainfall” and “dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.”
Hurricane scientist Nick Grondin explains how the storm, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring flash flooding, wind damage and mudslides to the U.S. Southwest.
How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?
California has only had one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called the Long Beach Tropical Storm. It caused about US$2 million dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A hurricane in 1858 came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.
What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are more common in the region than people might think.
Just last year, Hurricane Kay took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, Hurricane Nora in 1997 made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, particularly to fruit trees and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year. National Hurricane Center
A study led by atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Ritchie in 2011 found that, on average, about 3.1 remnant systems from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.
Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, though it wouldn’t be unprecedented. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a moderate risk of flooding across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.
The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
What are the risks?
The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.
In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts on Aug. 18 showed Death Valley likely to get about 4 inches of rain over a three-day period from the storm – that’s about twice its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding Aug. 19-22 and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds.
As Hurricane Hilary heads toward landfall in Baja California, forecasters are expecting dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage in Mexico before the storm reaches Southern California.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Service offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This article was updated Aug. 19, 2023, with the National Hurricane Center upgrading the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, no matter how far one lives from a coast, it’s time to start thinking about what to do in the event of a hurricane. If you’re separated from the coast by a tall mountain range, you may have a little extra time – but I doubt whether California’s coastal range (which we always belittlingly referred to as “the foothills”) are going to stop a storm. And the Mississippi River would appear to give any hurricane a straight route northwards. Anyone outside the US, I’m not knowledgeable enough to address.
Beau of the Fifth Column, who lives in Florida, has made many a video advising people there, and through the south and even the northeast, how to prepare. They include about everything you would think of and some things that you wouldn’t. He just made his first one for California. It includes tips on how to read the weather maps – excellent advice for a newbie – but I didn’t hear him mention having a plan for your pets in case evacuation becomes necessary. Well, maybe from fires, Californians will be aware of that.
