Yesterday, I received an email from HuffPost with the subject line, “Drag is free speech.” I’ve never seen it put that way – but, as a former costumer, amateur and professiona – dam right it is! A fashion sttement is as much a statement as anything in words (and more so than some of the word salads we hear.) Back in the 19th century, when costume began to be thought of in terms of authenticity of period and place (prior to that it was mostly contemporary garb, but with some class distinctions and of course some drag) there was an actor/playwright named Dion Boucicault who would not start practiving his part until he had settled his costume – he actually used it as a means of getting into character. I’m not aware of any thespian today who is that exreme – but they don’t really have to be. The field of costuming today already requires costumer to be a little bit historians and a little bit psychologists. Also, at The New Yorker, David Remnick had an article about how much like a mobster Trump** is – and how bad at it he is. And elsewhere, a quote from Mike Pence revealed that he actually does know what his wife’s name is (unfortunately – if appropriately – it is Karen.)
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Letters from an American – August 21, 2023
Quote – Today [August 21] the president and First Lady Dr. Jill Biden visited Maui, where after seeing the devastation, President Biden said that “the country grieves with you, stands with you, and we’ll do everything possible to help you recover, rebuild, and respect culture and traditions when the rebuilding takes place.” He promised that we will “rebuild the way the people of Maui want to build.”Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) said, “We in Hawaii have been through hurricanes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions—but we have never seen such a robust federal response. Thank you.” Click through for full letter. It details everything done by the White House to support Hawaii. This includes a whole lot of stuff which did not make it into the mainstream media, and all of which goes to support Senator Schatz’s remark.
ProPublica – New York Workers Are Waiting on $79 Million in Back Wages
Quote – But the Department of Labor, which is responsible for both investigating wage theft claims and recovering back wages, has not been able to collect even a penny on behalf of [Saprina] James. [Mugisha F.] Sahini [and his company, Riverside Line,] flatly refused to pay for more than a year, James said, and then appealed the case, claiming that he wasn’t aware that the workers were earning less than minimum wage. The appeal has since been rejected, but James has yet to receive any payment. About to turn 60, James said she’s now unemployed and running through her savings to pay her bills. “I’m so upset,” she said. “This is ridiculous. I don’t understand why it takes so long.” Sahini did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Click through for article. And, of course, this is exactly why the rich want government underfunded and cash-strapped – because it help them get away with theft and greed. How they manage to get so many people who are being hurt by their theories to believe them has always been a mystery … but then division and hate are also a mystery to emotionally healthy people.
Food For Thought
This is a screenshot, so the video is not live. Sorry.
Yesterday, I was able to keep up with Hilary, but I had to hunt for it. I may be misremembering, but it seems to me we don’t have to search for news on hurricanes and tropical storms in The South – instead it’s challenging to avoid updates. That may have something to do with “If it bleeds, it leads,” since there are few or no fatalities from Hilary. And that has to do both with the storm losing power and also with the measures taken by governments to prepare. I did find a WaPo article which i was able to see and read, I assume because it’s been so long since I have tried that its server forgot me. The overall impression was “Major cleanup, but lives spared.” Incidentally, thee’s another storm in the Gulf heading for Texas.
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PolitiZoom – Poll Shows MAGAs Trust Trump More Than Their Own Mother
Quote – However bizarre, it’s true. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll show that Trump voters aka MAGAs, trust their Mango Messiah above family, church leaders and other conservative figures — and by no small margin, we want you to know. By a considerable margin. He may be Trumpty Dumpty to you and me but to them he is the God of their understanding. Take a look and try not to let your jaw hit the laptop, those keyboards are hard…. They may trust Ben Shapiro or Franklin Graham or Mom or brother to some extent but not like they trust Trumpty. Yes, it is enough to make you sick. Click through for article. I’ve always thought that all humor is based on some kind of incongruity – and this is so incongruous that it ought to be hysterical – but it isn’t (at not least in the humorous sense.) When my mom was alive, there were people I might have tructed more than I did her on some particular topics – quantum physics, for instance – but not on “common sense” matters. Incidentally, it gets stranger the farther you read, and the trend continues into the comments.
Axios – Trump’s bail set at $200,000 in Georgia 2020 election case
Quote – Former President Trump’s bail has been set at $200,000 in the Fulton County prosecution over his alleged efforts to subvert 2020 election results in Georgia.,,,
Monday’s court filing, signed by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and Trump’s lawyers, also includes strict conditions on witness intimidation.
“The defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice,” per the court filing.
“The above shall include, but are not limited to, posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media,” the order adds. Click through for likely even more details than I had. Of course he will post the bail., and of course he will violate tha conditions. And that will be when it gets intresting.
[I think Glenn means “in to” rather than “into” – and hope that gives you a chuckle. It did me.]
Glenn Kirschner – Trump to turn himself into GA authorities. Here’s how DA Fani Willis CAN give Trump a speedy trial.
PoliticsGirl – This Must Stop
VoteVets – AWOL
Armageddon Update – Year Of The Weasel!
Tiny Stray Kitten Follows Guy Home And Never Leaves
Beau – Let’s talk about Santos, fundraising, and another indictment….
Yesterday, I kept periodically checking on Hurricane Hilary. PP has at least one reader in southern Cal, and my BFF has family there. Just to make life more intresting, there was a 5.1 magnitude earthquake near Ojai (Ventura Coounty) – if you hadn’t heard, that’s probably because compared to the storms it was trivial. And then there’s southern Nevada and Arizona, which are now in the path. Hilary had been staying a cat 4 into the afternoon, but they were not ruling out Cat 5 status being reached, and the flooding was being considered the biggest danger. We could be continuing to see the ongoing effects for another day or two before it finishes. And then there’a another system in the Pacific and 4 more in the Atlantic.
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HuffPost – Trump Lawyer On Georgia Case Has Eyebrow-Raising Tie To Prosecutor Fani Willis
Quote – Findling gave $1,440 to Fani Willis’ successful Democratic primary bid for Fulton County DA in July 2020, the outlet wrote, citing data from the Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission. Meanwhile, he donated $8,400 for Biden’s White House bid…. He told Insider at the time that differing political views do not stand in the way of him offering a vigorous defense against “wrongful investigations.” Click through for details. I doubt that this means anything (except that he might be competent), but I’m surprised that Trump** isn’t all over it like stink on you-know-what.
Orlando Sentinel (via Yahoo! News) – ‘Parenting with Pride’ aims to take on conservative Moms for Liberty in Florida schools
Quote – “This is what Florida families really look like,” said Brandon Wolf, spokesperson for Equality Florida as he gestured to the group of people with varying races, gender identities, sexualities and immigration statuses who had come to support the new initiative. “For years, parents and families just like the ones behind me have been under assault. … Politicians have waged war on these families turning their classrooms into political battlefields and descending school districts into utter chaos. But today marks a turning of the tide. Today marks a rise in the resistance against that agenda.” Click hrough for article. Yahoo! News provides news articles straight from their sources, which is why I cited the Sentinel. However, I did not look at the comments, and I recommend (based on prior experience) that ypu don’t either if you value your blood pressure. Too many little-y yahoos.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
So today is – or was – depending on when you get here – the first hurricane to land on California in living memory – and when I say living memory, I mean the people who were alive in California at the time of the Spanish conquest. And probably much longer – but we don’t have records on that. As a native of California myself, I didn’t feel that I could ignore this. But it’s an issue much bigger than California – after all, New York didn’t get hurricanes either – until it did. Climate change is bringing tropical storms out of tropical areas nd into the temperate zone. I don’t think it’s wise to wait until the first hurricane hits Alaska to read up on, and discuss, the subject.
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Hurricane Hilary triggers Southern California’s first tropical storm warning ever, with heavy rain and flash flooding forecast
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA NESDIS
Hurricane Hilary headed for Mexico’s Baja peninsula on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, and was forecast to speed into Southern California at or near tropical storm strength on Sunday. For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for large parts of Southern California and warned of a “potentially historic amount of rainfall” and “dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.”
Hurricane scientist Nick Grondin explains how the storm, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring flash flooding, wind damage and mudslides to the U.S. Southwest.
How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?
California has only had one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called the Long Beach Tropical Storm. It caused about US$2 million dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A hurricane in 1858 came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.
What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are more common in the region than people might think.
Just last year, Hurricane Kay took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, Hurricane Nora in 1997 made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, particularly to fruit trees and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year. National Hurricane Center
A study led by atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Ritchie in 2011 found that, on average, about 3.1 remnant systems from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.
Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, though it wouldn’t be unprecedented. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a moderate risk of flooding across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.
The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
What are the risks?
The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.
In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts on Aug. 18 showed Death Valley likely to get about 4 inches of rain over a three-day period from the storm – that’s about twice its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding Aug. 19-22 and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds.
As Hurricane Hilary heads toward landfall in Baja California, forecasters are expecting dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage in Mexico before the storm reaches Southern California.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Service offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This article was updated Aug. 19, 2023, with the National Hurricane Center upgrading the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, no matter how far one lives from a coast, it’s time to start thinking about what to do in the event of a hurricane. If you’re separated from the coast by a tall mountain range, you may have a little extra time – but I doubt whether California’s coastal range (which we always belittlingly referred to as “the foothills”) are going to stop a storm. And the Mississippi River would appear to give any hurricane a straight route northwards. Anyone outside the US, I’m not knowledgeable enough to address.
Beau of the Fifth Column, who lives in Florida, has made many a video advising people there, and through the south and even the northeast, how to prepare. They include about everything you would think of and some things that you wouldn’t. He just made his first one for California. It includes tips on how to read the weather maps – excellent advice for a newbie – but I didn’t hear him mention having a plan for your pets in case evacuation becomes necessary. Well, maybe from fires, Californians will be aware of that.
Our planet is getting hotter – there is no denying this. Disasters such as wildfires and storms are getting worse. The tragic fires on Maui are shaping up to be the worst disaster in Hawaii’s history as a U.S. state. Corals are dying, ocean water is getting warmer, arctic ice is melting. The gulf stream could shut down in a few decades, possibly a few years, though only time will tell.
We all know about how climate change is affecting weather patterns, leading to more powerful storms, larger and more frequent wildfires, rising sea levels, increases in droughts and famines. Viruses that have long lain dormant in arctic ice and permafrost will escape, possibly triggering new epidemics. You thought the COVID pandemic was fun? Wait till something even nastier sweeps through the population.
Increasing temperatures affect our reproduction – and doubtless that of other species as well. Hight heat makes pregnancy riskier, increasing the probability of premature birth. Also, heat affects the effectiveness of birth control, including condoms and the morning-after pill. This makes the battle for reproductive rights all the more important.
As usual, the ones suffering most from the heat and the other effects of climate change are the poor, the old, the young, and residents of developing countries. The wealthy can go pretty much wherever they want, while the economically disadvantaged are pretty much stuck where they are. And if they must leave their present homes, they have limited resources to travel; many have nothing but their own feet for mobility. Owners of boats that transport refugees often charge exorbitant prices for passage, and provide very little necessities, if any at all.
Already hordes of refugees are fleeing stricken areas, and sadly some countries are trying to turn them aside. Wars will erupt as nations battle over dwindling resources. Since more heat means hotter tempers, anger will flare into violence again and again and again. Not only that, people will fight to the death when survival is at stake.
Increasing heat hurts us all both physically and mentally. It is in everybody’s interest to do what we all can to curtail the effects of climate change. Even if we have passed one or more tipping points, we may be able to avoid the worst ones. This will happen only when cooler heads prevail – and cool heads are hard to come by these days.
