Yesterday was one of those days I just couldn’t seem to get ahead. Sometimes that happens – but it doesn’t give me a lot to talk about, nor time to talk in. Not being Seinfeld, or one of his writers, I can’t really get any content out of it. Maybe that’s not a bad thing.
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Crooks & Liars – GOP Activist Who Couldn’t Wait For RBG To Die Shoots Wife, Kills Self
Quote – Fun fact: Alembik first received national attention after he tweeted that “Ruth Bader Ginsburg can’t die soon enough,” and of course, now he’s dead…. I’m glad his wife was not killed. Btw, we need common sense gun laws. Everyone in his orbit seemed to know that he was struggling with mental health issues — and he had a gun. In fact, he had a concealed carry permit, or at least he did in 2007 Click through for story. Personally, I”m wondering what’s wrong with people who said he was always smiling. That’s not a smile. (Not to be confused with “alembic,” which was a medieval Arabian still used in alchemy.)
Western Slope Now – Ouray’s new via ferrata!
Quote – A via ferrata is a protected mountain pathway consisting of a series of rungs, rails, cables, and bridges embracing the rock face…. the via ferratas became a civilian attraction in Europe by the 1950’s and have moved into the USA only within the last decade…. This course climbs 1200 feet across 12 pitches, with trails intermixed between. Click through for details. Yes this article is lightweight. That’s fine with me. Ouray, named for a Ute chief, is an adorable little town, sadly in a very red part of Colorado. There’s a small hotel where Lillie Langtry once stayed. The website has a short video which includes some lovely scenery.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
As we first noticed in 2016 (I’m mot saying that was when it was first done; I’m pretty confident that was not the case) there are people all over the world who are willing and able to use all kinds of disinformation to influence elections in a nation other than their own. Most, maybe all, of them, believing they have no obligations to any nation other than their own, are utterly unscrupulous. (and I am sure that the US does it also – and that we are by no means immune from being utterly unscrupiulous.) And now, in addition to all the social media – much of which is so corrupt that any thinking person must doubt anything seen or heard there – there is Artificial Intelligence. I know I have addressed this subject before, more than once (maybe too many times, if that is possible), but it just keeps getting worse. This article addresses some of the latest – “advances.”
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AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024
The intersection of politics and social media is fertile ground for AI-powered disinformation. AP Photo/John Minchillo
Elections around the world are facing an evolving threat from foreign actors, one that involves artificial intelligence.
Countries trying to influence each other’s elections entered a new era in 2016, when the Russians launched a series of social media disinformation campaigns targeting the U.S. presidential election. Over the next seven years, a number of countries – most prominently China and Iran – used social media to influence foreign elections, both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. There’s no reason to expect 2023 and 2024 to be any different.
But there is a new element: generative AI and large language models. These have the ability to quickly and easily produce endless reams of text on any topic in any tone from any perspective. As a security expert, I believe it’s a tool uniquely suited to internet-era propaganda.
This is all very new. ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022. The more powerful GPT-4 was released in March 2023. Other language and image production AIs are around the same age. It’s not clear how these technologies will change disinformation, how effective they will be or what effects they will have. But we are about to find out.
A conjunction of elections
Election season will soon be in full swing in much of the democratic world. Seventy-one percent of people living in democracies will vote in a national election between now and the end of next year. Among them: Argentina and Poland in October, Taiwan in January, Indonesia in February, India in April, the European Union and Mexico in June and the U.S. in November. Nine African democracies, including South Africa, will have elections in 2024. Australia and the U.K. don’t have fixed dates, but elections are likely to occur in 2024.
Many of those elections matter a lot to the countries that have run social media influence operations in the past. China cares a great deal about Taiwan, Indonesia, India and many African countries. Russia cares about the U.K., Poland, Germany and the EU in general. Everyone cares about the United States.
AI image, text and video generators are already beginning to inject disinformation into elections.
And that’s only considering the largest players. Every U.S. national election from 2016 has brought with it an additional country attempting to influence the outcome. First it was just Russia, then Russia and China, and most recently those two plus Iran. As the financial cost of foreign influence decreases, more countries can get in on the action. Tools like ChatGPT significantly reduce the price of producing and distributing propaganda, bringing that capability within the budget of many more countries.
Election interference
A couple of months ago, I attended a conference with representatives from all of the cybersecurity agencies in the U.S. They talked about their expectations regarding election interference in 2024. They expected the usual players – Russia, China and Iran – and a significant new one: “domestic actors.” That is a direct result of this reduced cost.
Of course, there’s a lot more to running a disinformation campaign than generating content. The hard part is distribution. A propagandist needs a series of fake accounts on which to post, and others to boost it into the mainstream where it can go viral. Companies like Meta have gotten much better at identifying these accounts and taking them down. Just last month, Meta announced that it had removed 7,704 Facebook accounts, 954 Facebook pages, 15 Facebook groups and 15 Instagram accounts associated with a Chinese influence campaign, and identified hundreds more accounts on TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), LiveJournal and Blogspot. But that was a campaign that began four years ago, producing pre-AI disinformation.
Russia has a long history of engaging in foreign disinformation campaigns.
Disinformation is an arms race. Both the attackers and defenders have improved, but also the world of social media is different. Four years ago, Twitter was a direct line to the media, and propaganda on that platform was a way to tilt the political narrative. A Columbia Journalism Review study found that most major news outlets used Russian tweets as sources for partisan opinion. That Twitter, with virtually every news editor reading it and everyone who was anyone posting there, is no more.
Many propaganda outlets moved from Facebook to messaging platforms such as Telegram and WhatsApp, which makes them harder to identify and remove. TikTok is a newer platform that is controlled by China and more suitable for short, provocative videos – ones that AI makes much easier to produce. And the current crop of generative AIs are being connected to tools that will make content distribution easier as well.
Generative AI tools also allow for new techniques of production and distribution, such as low-level propaganda at scale. Imagine a new AI-powered personal account on social media. For the most part, it behaves normally. It posts about its fake everyday life, joins interest groups and comments on others’ posts, and generally behaves like a normal user. And once in a while, not very often, it says – or amplifies – something political. These persona bots, as computer scientist Latanya Sweeney calls them, have negligible influence on their own. But replicated by the thousands or millions, they would have a lot more.
Disinformation on AI steroids
That’s just one scenario. The military officers in Russia, China and elsewhere in charge of election interference are likely to have their best people thinking of others. And their tactics are likely to be much more sophisticated than they were in 2016.
Countries like Russia and China have a history of testing both cyberattacks and information operations on smaller countries before rolling them out at scale. When that happens, it’s important to be able to fingerprint these tactics. Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognize them, and recognizing them requires looking for and cataloging them now.
Even before the rise of generative AI, Russian disinformation campaigns have made sophisticated use of social media.
In the computer security world, researchers recognize that sharing methods of attack and their effectiveness is the only way to build strong defensive systems. The same kind of thinking also applies to these information campaigns: The more that researchers study what techniques are being employed in distant countries, the better they can defend their own countries.
Disinformation campaigns in the AI era are likely to be much more sophisticated than they were in 2016. I believe the U.S. needs to have efforts in place to fingerprint and identify AI-produced propaganda in Taiwan, where a presidential candidate claims a deepfake audio recording has defamed him, and other places. Otherwise, we’re not going to see them when they arrive here. Unfortunately, researchers are instead being targeted and harassed.
Maybe this will all turn out OK. There have been some important democratic elections in the generative AI era with no significant disinformation issues: primaries in Argentina, first-round elections in Ecuador and national elections in Thailand, Turkey, Spain and Greece. But the sooner we know what to expect, the better we can deal with what comes.
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AMT, in continuing TomCat’s blog, I hope to influence elections myself. I hope to influence people in the US to support and vote for candidates like Joe Biden and to vote a full Democratic ticket right down to the proverbial dog catcher (which, at least in my area, is no longer an elective office. But definitely as far down as school boards, and farther if possible.) But I don’t want to do it with disinformation. I’m not above emotional appeal, however. In fact, I am working on four possibilities for a meme which I hope will be scary enough to get attention. The first two have appeared in the Open Threads for October 2 and October 11, and I expect to post the final two on October 17 and October 27 respectively. I’m soliciting reactions to try to determine which is most effective (or whether a mix and match version would be better than any of them.) The fastest way to reach them would probably be to use the Archives, the bottom feature in the right sidebar on the home page or any individual post’s page. As in national elections, the more people voting, the better the result.
Glenn Kirschner – Colorado Judge REFUSES to dismiss lawsuit to disqualify Trump from running for president
The Lincoln Project – Even Fox
MSNBC – Gold Star father Khizr Khan: Trump ‘incapable’ of leading U.S. again
Steve Shives – If Republicans Said the Quiet Parts Loud to Workers (long, but WOW! It hits EVERYTHING. You or someone you know might need it to pass on to make a point.)
Yesterday, the radio opera was one of the ones which have me so excited – “Assassinio nella cattedrale” by Ildebrando Pizzetti. That means “Murder in the Cathedral,” and it is based on the T. S. Eliot play. So, though I didn’t even know it existed, I knew it could not have been written before 1935. In fact, it debuted in March 1958., at La Scala in Milan. The premier was recorded, as was a live radio broadcast in December of the same yesr. (I was 12 in March and 13 in December of that year. I had seen my first live opera – whe I was 8 – but I was definitely not tuned in to the international opera landscape then. I think I would have liked it. I certainly did yesterday.) The bass who sang Becket said {I’m paraphrasing) that if there was one word for what he wanted his character to conve y it would be “sincere.” I think he did that. Basses have it rough in opera when it comes to juicy parts, but this definitely is one. With luck, perhaps a bass with star clout will come along and make a case for doing it at the Met. Hey, I can dream. Certainly I’m not the only person who was excited about this production. The materials made available included 174 pictures. So I can tell you from photographic evidence that it was fully staged in a church (The Chicago Temple, to be precise) with gorgeous stained glass windows. Also, my new keyboard came. It has the Logitech layout, wich is what I am used to (with a few tiny differences) and is so fancy I had to go to support online to figure out how to set it up. It’s working now, I typed this sentence on it, but I am running late now.
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New York Magazine/Intelligencer – A Left That Refuses to Condemn Mass Murder Is Doomed
Quote – And no small number of supposed leftists found in all this cause for celebration. Others, meanwhile, loudly refused to condemn Hamas’s atrocities, insisting it was not their place to decry the “military strategy” or “violent resistance” of oppressed Palestinians. In my view, these responses constitute a betrayal of the left’s most fundamental values. Either one upholds the equal worth of all human lives, opposes war crimes, and despises far-right ethno-nationalist political projects or one doesn’t. What’s more, cheering (or publicly announcing your refusal to condemn) the murder of children isn’t just morally grotesque but also politically self-defeating. Click through for argument (I doubt anyome here will disagree.) Other publications tend to be more generous with their archives than the latest news – New York mag does it the opposite way – this article is free “for a limited time.” So I “printed” it (by which I mean I converted it to a pdf file which I can easily email if anyone gets here too late for the free time. I almost never print on paper any more.) Possibly sounding like a broken record, I do think it’s a mistake to talk of this in terms of left and right. Left and right represent economic theories. This is a matter of authoritarian as opposed to egalitarian (yes, after a couple of hours with multiple thesauruses I finally came up with what I believe is the best word to use unstead of “Libertarian,” which has been poisoned by the so-called Libertarian party.) It’s natural to assume that leftism goes with egalitarianism because both require at least some compassion, and because with an economic theory with the principle that everyone should have enough money, it’s reasonable to pair that with the idea that everyone should have enough power. And vice versa. But human beings are not always consistent, and the author here is addressing leftist authoritarians.
Wonkette (on Substack) – What If Crowdfunding Is *Not* A Great Healthcare System?
Quote – Olympic gymnast Mary Lou Retton is very sick and in the hospital with what is being referred to as “a rare form of pneumonia.” That’s very sad, as is the fact that she does not have health insurance and thus cannot afford her stay in the ICU. They started a crowdfund for her, which has since blown past its $50,000 goal all the way to over $375,000. This included one $50,000 donation from Linda McIngvale, wife of Gallery Furniture magnate Jim McIngvale…. Now, when I first heard that Retton didn’t have health insurance and her family was raising money on GoFundMe to pay for her medical treatment, I immediately assumed it was some kind of very tragic Erin Moran/Brett Butler situation and that despite her former fame, she couldn’t even afford health insurance…. “How very American!” thought I, until I looked into it and saw that she is, in fact, likely still very rich, lives in a very fancy 9,000 square foot mansion, and very likely just kind of chose not to have health insurance. Click through for article. I think we all know that crowdfunding does not a great healthcare system make – particularly when the crowdfunding is abused, which I am not saying this is, but it would be hard not to notice that it looks like it. I think we also all know that a Democratic supermajority in both the House and the Senate would be needed to effectively put in a health care ayatem which would be great.
Glenn Kirschner – In NY fraud trial, Trump prepares to make mean faces at former lawyer turned witness Michael Cohen
The Lincoln Project – Appeasement
PBS – Amanpour & Company – Historian Heather Cox Richardson: GOP “Has Become an Extremist Faction”
It’s all good, but I cut off some at the beginning that I thought was more fammiliar to make it more watchable length-wise, and get straight to the nitty-gritty.
Liberal Redneck – Liberal Redneck – RFK Jr. Runs as Independent (ad in middle – ignore or skip)
Giant Dogs Get New Baby Brother To Look After
Beau – Let’s talk about Trump being worried about another candidate….
Yesterday, I got to thinking that a House of Representatives with no Speaker, at a time when we have no budget, and have our foreign policy focused on the Middle East shooting war, is pretty damned convenient for Russia. Ukraine is holding strong so far, but there’s going to come a point when it will need resources badly. Is anyone investigating, or contemplating investigating, Matt Gaetz for being a Russian agent? Yes, I know he’s a pedophile and is himself intellectually and emotionally an adolescent (and will probably never grow up.) But that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful to Russia. Au contraire. See the Food for Thought below.
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The Root – What In The Actual Hell: CVS Abortion Med Mixup Led To Black Woman’s IVF Termination
Quote – [Timika] Thomas and her husband had trouble getting pregnant and after two ectopic pregnancies, Thomas had to have her fallopian tubes removed. Even though their insurance didn’t cover IVF, they decided to do it and pay out of pocket anyway. Thomas’ doctor prescribed a vaginal suppository to replace the injections required to jumpstart her hormones. After taking two of her required doses, she immediately knew something was wrong…. “They just killed my baby. Both my babies, because I transferred two embryos,” [Thomas said.] Click through for story. This would be unacceptable, no matter how the pregnancy occurred, but for an IVF pregnancy it’s exponentially worse. IVF is expensive, so expensive that it’s a last resort among fertility treatmernts. It often doesn’t “take” for multiple attempts. The best analogy I can come up with is – one is like you studued and worked hard, took the SAT or whateve they are using, sweat blood over your essay, and got turned down. the other is like you decided when you were five you wanted to go to a particular college and started saving monet from your allowance and odd jobs. You applied in your seniot year of high school and wewre turned down. You alloied in the first year after graduation and were turned down again. the second and third year after graduation you applied again and were turned down both times. Finally, in the fourth year after graduation, you applied and were accepted. Two days before freshman orientation the college burned down.
PolitiZoom – Anti-WOKE: Even Your Name Can Get Book Banned
Quote – Imagine if you will having had a successful career as a children’s book author. Your work has been widely acclaimed, published in a dozen languages and you’ve won lots of awards. Your work includes several series including a pair of them about siblings – one from the perspective of a little girl named Stella and the other from her little brother named Sam. The Stella series which ran from 1999 to the last book about Stella and Sam building a doghouse was published in 2013. including one about the adventures of a little girl named Stella and her brother…. Does the book delve into topics that might, only might mind you raise “content” questions about whether topics like human sexuality or race relations or religion are “age appropriate?” Nope, as I’ve stated it’s about a pair of siblings building a dog house. So by now you’re wondering why the hell this book wound up on a “we’ve got to BAN these books from the library” list in the first place. The author’s name is Mary-Louise GAY. Click through for article. Yes, compared to the first short take, this is small potatoes indeed. But it still hurts people. And the people most harmed are among the most vulnerable.
Glenn Kirschner – DA Willis says Jim Jordan is “abusing” his authority & “obstructing” her RICO prosecution of Trump
The Lincoln Project – Good Night America – very soft, and no CC, so here’s transcript:
Mom: Hey, honey –
Child: what, mommy?
M: You asked me to wake you up to tell you the results of the election
C: Who won?
M: Trump. Trump won.
C: You said he could only be President two times.
M: (Whisper) Not any more
Mob chanting: I can’t make it out. It sounds to me like M-R-U or N-R-U but I can’t make sense of that.
Ring of Fire – Furious Sean Hannity Delivers Most Ironic Rant Ever On Fox News
Patrick Fitzgerald – The Longest Time (Donald Trump / Billy Joel Song Parody)
Bunny Thumps At Mom When He’s Mad
Beau – Let’s talk about an update and what we know….
Yesterday, Jim Jordan threw his support behind Steve Scalise, and a vote of the full House was held. The result was Scalise 113 to Jordan 99 (That adds up to 212, which, coincidentally, was the exact number of votes cast for Jeffries.) I am no fan of Scalise (except maybe = MAYBE – as compared to Gym Jordan) but he is at least predictable. Jordan and other MAGAts, you never know what cockamamie idea they will come up with nect – nor even whether they’re serious about it or just being outrageous. Planning is next to impossible. And then, after all that, Scalise dropped oout of the race! Also yesterday, the jury reached a verdict in the case of the two officers charged in the death of Elijah McClain (the forst of three trials for five defendants). From CPR: “One Aurora police officer was found guilty on Thursday for his role in the 2019 death of Elijah McClain. Randy Roedema has been convicted on the lesser charges of criminally negligent homicide and assault in the third degree. The other officer on trial, Jason Rosenblatt, was found not guilty.”
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Daily Beast – North Carolina Republicans Are Creating a ‘Secret Police Force’
Quote – This new entity, formally known as the Joint Legislative Committee on Government Operations, or “Gov Ops” for short, will be chaired by Senate Leader Phil Berger (R) and House Speaker Tim Moore (R). It grants the state the authority to investigate various matters, including “possible instances of misfeasance, malfeasance, nonfeasance, mismanagement, waste, abuse, or illegal conduct.” Gov Ops, a product of North Carolina’s most recent state budget, was established via a comprehensive bill passed in late September. Despite Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s refusal to sign the legislation, the Republican majority in the state legislature pushed it through just 10 days later, thanks to their veto-proof majority and the state’s laws restricting the governor’s ability to make line-item vetoes. Gov Ops is slated to take effect next week. Click through for more. I have fond memories of North Carolina from when I was stationed there. This kind of thing just sinks them as the iceberg sank the Titanic.
Atlanta Black Star – ‘Want to Go In … Start Flipping Over Desks’: Kamala Harris’ Supporters Race to Her Defense After Anonymous Staffer Criticizes Vice President for the ‘Amount of Time Dedicated to Hair Care’
Quote – According to The New York Times Magazine, Democrats have also insulted Harris and questioned her skill set. A top Democratic consultant reportedly claimed that the vice president “has a little Ron DeSantis in her.” Another Democrat donor said that Harris serving as the vice president “is not ideal, but there’s a hope she can rise to the occasion” as Biden’s running mate. One particularly petty microaggression revealed in the article noted the amount of time that the country’s first Black vice president spends grooming her hair. “Sometimes the arguments against her feel more petty,” said the article. “A member of Harris’ staff remarked on the amount of downtime the vice president schedules on trips, which includes an inordinate amount of time dedicated to hair care.” Click through for full article. All of this is petty, and IMO clearly more misgynistic than racist. 2016 should have taught us that Democratic misogyny is a force which is powerful, and which needs to be considered if we don’t want to lose our democracy. But no one wants to hear that. I find it terribly painful that some of the finest minds and greatest talents in the nation are not electable. But I find the prospect of living in 1984 Orwell – or 1930’s and 40’s Stalin – or Russia or Iran today even more painful. Another lesson we should have learned even longer ago – this one as long ago as Reconstruction – is that bigotry cannot be eradicated by ignoring it or denying it exists.
