Oct 142012
 

Last week, I warned that my projections did not take public reactions to either nthe first Presidential debate or the improved unemployment rate into account. My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do and they paint a picture far less positive than last week’s.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  Especially because the most recent polls do not reflect public reactions to the Vice Presidential debate, these numbers are also subject to change.

President:

14ElecProjPres

Even States

 

 

 

State

EV

Obama

Romney

CO

9

47

47

FL

29

47

48

MI

16

48

45

NC

15

47

48

NH

4

46

50

NV

6

48

46

OH

18

48

45

VA

13

49

47

WI

10

50

47

This represents an electoral vote count of 227 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama.  States with a combined electoral total of 63 votes, that Obama led by 5% or more one week ago, are now in doubt.  Of the even states Obama leads in five (64 votes), Romney leads in three (40 votes).  One is tied (9 votes)

The Senate:

14ElecProjSen

Even Senate

 

 

AZ

Carmona – D

43

 

Flake – R

43

CT

Murphy -D

48

 

McMahon – R

45

IN

Donnelly -D

40

 

Mourdock – R

38

MA

Warren – D

48

 

Brown – R

46

MT

Tester – D

45

 

Rehberg – R

43

ND

Heitkamp – D

47

 

Berg – R

47

NV

Berkley – D

41

 

Heller – R

44

TN

Clayton – D

48

 

Corker – R

51

VA

Kaine – D

48

 

Allen – R

45

The current tally is:

Democrats: 46

Republicans: 43

Independent: 2

Undecided: 9

Of the even races, Democrats lead in six states, Republicans in one, and six are tied.

Map credit: 270 to Win

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.

It still appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and Democrats will hold the Senate, but the races are closer than the done deal they appeared to be a week ago.

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.

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Oct 122012
 

12Debate

Photo credit:CBS

I enjoyed watching last night’s Vice Presidential debate, as much as I cringed during the first Presidential debate.  Uncle Joe was magnificent.  We could easily determine the winner from the Republican Ministry of Propaganda, Faux Noise.  They called Biden rude, unhinged, and a cranky old man.  Their whining, instead of crowing, is a dead giveaway.  Here are some of my observations of the debate, but first, in case you missed it, here is the complete video.

Or if you prefer, the debate transcript is here.

If Ryan won a point it was the segment on Benghazi.  Biden correctly refuted that the Administration was wrong in their initial reports, because that’s the information they were getting from the intelligence community.  He also nailed Ryan for accusing Obama of inadequate security when Republicans, under Ryan’s budgetary leadership, cut $300 million from embassy security.  But he was not prepared to explain the entire issue.

Ryan embarrassed himself on Afghanistan.  He just could not understand how Afghan troops are replacing US troops being withdrawn.

On domestic policy, Biden won going away.  The high point was rubbing Ryan’s nose in his own letters requesting stimulus funds, because they would ‘create jobs’.  He also pinned Ryan to his record on Social Security, Medicare, Taxes and women’s rights.

The process was so upsetting to Ryan that he actually said something true by mistake once or twice, but he lived up to his reputation as Lyin’ Ryan.

Here are a few of Ryan’s lies:

He said the US should apologize for troops burning Korans and urinating on Afghan corpses, but he and Romney have criticized Obama for doing so.

He accused Obama of watering sanctions against Iran, when what Obama had done was negotiate a set of sanctions the international community would support.

He said Romney is a ‘car guy’, who supports auto workers.

He repeated the thoroughly debunked $716 billion Medicare lie.

He repeated the thoroughly debunked death panel lie.

He said Obamacare will force one out of six hospitals out of business.

He said Obamacare will make 21,000 lose their health insurance.

He said that a Democratic Senator from Oregon supports his Medicare plan.

He said that ending Bush tax cuts for the top 2% would raise the taxes of over one million small businesses.

He said Obama called Assad a reformer during the Syria crisis.

He said the greatest personal trait he offers is complete honesty.

That last one is a real doozy!  Now Ryan did not rise to the standard of Lord Willard, but who could ever outdo the Lord of Lies.

Chris Matthews with Joy-Ann Reid and Martin O’Malley think there may be a post-debate bounce.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

In the end, Biden had several advantages.  He is passionate about supporting the 99%.  The things, about which Ryan is passionate, are things he cannot afford to admit.  Biden is linked with Barack Obama.  Ryan is saddled with Willard Romney.  Ryan was outclassed by Biden’s skill.

Biden’s face was wonderfully animated, and will Ryan did well at keeping a silly grin pasted on his face, the way his beady eyes kept shifting left me with the image of Ryan in Eddie Munster mode at a time when Thing has escaped from his box, has worked his way up Ryan’s pants leg, and has struck pay dirt.

I do hope Obama follows suit.

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Oct 042012
 

4Debate

Photo credit: Washington Post

I sat down to watch last nights Presidential debates expecting Barack Obama to clean the floor with Willard Romney.  I was shocked!  If you missed the debate, I’m including the complete video for you to see for yourself.  The worst performance of the evening was by Jim Lehrer.  He allowed Romney to dominate him, rudely and petulantly, throughout the night.   He gave Romney the last word in every segment, and failed to insist that Romney answer the questions asked.  Barack Obama was lethargic.  His normal animation was AWOL.  He appeared detached and disinterested.  He allowed himself to be attacked in the most despicable fashion and did not fight back.  From a perspective of style, Romney was the clear winner.  He appeared poised and confident.  He attacked Obama without rancor.  However, there was one problem that will come back to haunt him.  The policies and positions of the Romney at the debate had absolutely nothing in common with the policies and positions of the Romney that has been campaigning for months.

First, here is the debate video:

Next the meat of the debate can be found by comparing the lies told by the two candidates.

Romney’s Lies:

He [Romney] will not cut taxes for the rich.

Obama increased taxes and spending.

He will reduce the tax burden paid by the middle class.

He is not proposing a $5 trillion tax cut.

He will not reduce the taxes of high income families.

He will not raised taxes on middle income families.

Obama will raise business taxes from 35% to 40%.

His tax cuts will increase revenue.

His tax cuts will create jobs.

Obama gave $90 billion to green energy companies, and half of them went out of business.

There are no tax breaks to help companies move plants overseas.

Obama cut $716 billion from Medicare.

He will put that $716 billion back into the program.

Obama designated five banks as too big to fail.

Obamacare will cost families $2500 per year more.

Obamacare is killing jobs.

Obama pushed Obamacare through and was not bipartisan, because he did not negotiate for Republican support.

According to CBO, Obamacare will make 20 million lose coverage.

In Obamacare, an unelected board decides what kind of health care you can have.

He does not plan to cut education funding.

Obama will make 4 million people lose Medicare Advantage.

Is that a lot of lies or what?  I’m sure I missed a few.  He was lying faster than I can write.

Obama’s Lies:

Twenty years ago, Wednesday, Michelle Obama agreed to marry him.  (She did not.  Michelle Robinson agreed to marry him.)

I did check the fact checking sights and found that their claims about Obama were splitting hairs over irrelevant items.  They did not rise to the level of Romney’s whoppers.

There was virtually no mention of the 47%, the Republican War on Women, disenfranchising legitimate voters, papers please, Bain or labor, to my great dismay.

As uninspiring as Obama’s performance was, he did nothing that will put himself in jeopardy over the long term.  However, you can be sure there will be dozens of direct comparisons between what Romney said last night and what he has been saying all along.  The only people who will be convinced by his performance are those who knew absolutely nothing about the campaign to date.  Therefore, I doubt that the debate will significantly improve Romney’s chances.

There is one real plus here.  Romney’s big donors appeared about to abandon his campaign and funnel the money down-ticket.  Romney performed well enough to delay that, improving our chances in Congress and the states.

Nevertheless, Obama will need to improve his performance in  the next two debates.

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Sep 272012
 

Almost without exception Republican politicians are anti-union.  Their unequivocal support for so-called “right to work” laws, which really give employers the right to screw workers, leave unions no real way to protect workers against SCAB labor.  That’s why it is such a surprise when prominent Republicans condemn SCAB workers and support union workers as they have this week, resulting in a win for labor.

27RefsSo long, replacement refs. The NFL’s regular crews will be back on the field starting Thursday night.

After two days of marathon negotiations — and mounting frustration among coaches, players and fans — the NFL and the referees’ union announced at midnight Thursday that a tentative agreement had been reached to end a lockout that began in June.

Commissioner Roger Goodell, who was at the bargaining table Tuesday and Wednesday, said the regular officials would work the Browns-Ravens game at Baltimore.

"Welcome back REFS," Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller tweeted shortly after the news broke.

The replacements worked the first three weeks of games, triggering a wave of outrage that threatened to disrupt the rest of the season. After a missed call cost the Green Bay Packers a win on a chaotic final play at Seattle on Monday night, the two sides really got serious… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <Chicago Tribune>

Here’s video of that call:

As a member in good standing of the Church of the Ellipsoid Orb, this what happened, for those who do not understand.

Green Bay Quarterback, Aaron Rogers threw a pass end to the end zone, and Green Bay wide receiver Greg Jennings caught the ball, coming down in the end zone with the ball in his possession.  By NFL rules, the play was over at that point.  That’s where this should have ended, with Green Bay scoring a touchdown and winning the game.  But a Seattle defender, grabbed the ball and pulled it away from Jennings.  The replacement refs decided to call the play an interception, so Seattle won the game.

Now where politics comes into this is that it is a labor issue.  The NFL replacement refs are SCAB workers, completely unqualified to do the job.  Some have no higher experience than grade school football.  Some had no experience at all.  One had actually been fired for incompetence by the Lipstick League, a league featuring teams of scantily clad women.  The real officials were not there, because then NFL had locked them out over a dispute with their labor union.

SCAB workers, like the Replacement refs, are poster children for Republican union busting, so you would think that Republicans would be supporting their so-called “right to work”.  Not so much.  Few people are more notorious for union busting than Scott Walker, Fartfuhrer of the Totalitarian Corporate Plutocracy of Fitzwalkerstan (formerly Wisconsin).

Packers fans, Gov. Scott Walker and the president himself share your anger and anguish over Monday night’s Seahawks game.

In what many would have never thought possible, Walker and President Barack Obama are agreeing over a labor dispute. Tuesday morning, the Republican governor and Packers fan tweeted to a Twitter stream #Returntherealrefs dedicated to ending the lockout that has removed the real NFL referees from pro football games…

Inserted from <Milwaukee Journal Sentinel>

Equally notorious for union busting is Lord Willard’s boy wonder, Paul “Lyin’” Ryan.

GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan on Tuesday criticized the replacement referees who made a disputed call that caused the Green Bay Packers to lose the Monday Night Football game.

“You guys watch that Packer game last night?” Ryan said at his Cincinnati, Ohio, town-hall meeting. “I mean give me a break. It’s time to get the real refs…

Inserted from <The Hill>

What a surprise!

For me, I’m glad to see the return of the union refs, and as for the anti-union Republicans…

27Walker-Ryan

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Sep 232012
 

Like the last two weeks, here is my 2012 election map with my projections.  Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic.  I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article.

23ElecProj

Map credit: 270 to Win

I moved Wisconsin back into the blue column, because Obama now leads by over 5%.  I also moved Virginia into the blue column for the same reason.  That makes the electoral vote count 260 for Obama and 191 for Romney, so Obama needs 10 more to win, barring changes, of course.

There are seven states too close to call, the two states I moves, and the latest poll averages.  I did make an adjustment to my calculations.  Ever since I was in opinion research I have thought that Rasmussen skews their results by using unrealistic populations.  I had hoped I could avoid doing this, because calculating the averages myself is a lot more work, but Rasmussen’s results deviate so far from most other polls in many states, that I removed them. Other polls, whether liberal or conservative in their orientation, usually yielded results within a standard deviation of each other.

Swing States

 

 

 

State

EV

Obama

Romney

CO

9

48.5

45.7

FL

29

48

46.5

IA

6

48.5

43.5

NV

6

48.7

46

NH

4

46.5

43.5

NC

15

47

47.8

OH

18

49.2

44.4

VA

13

49.7

44.6

WI

10

51.8

43.8

Polling data credit: Real Clear Politics 

The remainder of this article remains unchanged from last week.

While I still consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency.  There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.

Now, if I could I would change the system in two ways.  I would do away with the Electoral College and make the vote for President a national populate vote.  That would eliminate all the economic benefits of the election going to a few swing states.  It would also end the imbalance that makes a vote in Wyoming count over twice what a vote in California does.  Second, I would place plurality rile with true majority rule with preference voting in all elections.  Voters would cast ballots with their first second and third choice candidates.  If counting everyone’s first choice does not produce a majority the ballots would be recounted, substituting the highest choice that made the top two for all voters whose first choice did not.  In that way we get true majority rule without stigmatizing third parties.

Every Vote Matters…

Especially Yours!

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Sep 162012
 

Like last week, here is my 2012 election map with my projections.  Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic.  I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article.

16ElecProj

Map credit: 270 to Win

I moved Wisconsin out of the blue column and put it back in the toss-up states, because Ryan’s activity there has moved the race closer than it was last week.  That makes the electoral vote count 237 for Obama and 191 for Romney, so Obama needs 33 more to win.

There are nine states too close to call, and here are the latest poll averages.

Toss-up States

 

 

 

State

EV

Obama

Romney

CO

9

48.3

45.3

FL

29

47.8

46.5

IA

6

45

44.8

NV

6

49

45.7

NH

4

47.3

43.3

NC

15

45

49.8

OH

18

48.5

44.3

VA

13

47.3

47

WI

10

48.2

46.8

Polling data credit: Real Clear Politics

Obama increased his lead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio.  Romney increased his lead in North Carolina and decreased Obama’s lead in Virginia and Wisconsin.  Iowa and Nevada were unchanged.

While I still consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency.  There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.

Now, if I could I would change the system in two ways.  I would do away with the Electoral College and make the vote for President a national populate vote.  That would eliminate all the economic benefits of the election going to a few swing states.  It would also end the imbalance that makes a vote in Wyoming count over twice what a vote in California does.  Second, I would place plurality rile with true majority rule with preference voting in all elections.  Voters would cast ballots with their first second and third choice candidates.  If counting everyone’s first choice does not produce a majority the ballots would be recounted, substituting the highest choice that made the top two for all voters whose first choice did not.  In that way we get true majority rule without stigmatizing third parties.

Every Vote Counts

Especially YOURS!

 

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Sep 112012
 

11-911Firemen

Eleven years ago this morning, I was getting ready for work when the first airliner hit the twin towers.  Like most Americans, I felt confused and wondered just what was going on.  The second airline hit just as I was walking out the door.  I realized then that it was a terrorist attack.  When I arrived at work, my job for that day was to talk to executives in fortune 500 companies in New York City to arrange research visits by a team from a major manufacturer of operating systems.  The account exec had not yet arrived, so I talked to his assistant and told her that I did not consider it appropriate to be calling New York companies, many of which were headquartered in the WTC, under those circumstances.  She ordered me to proceed, saying that terrorists cannot stop doing business, so I followed my orders.  As I called. most of my contact phones were out of order.  The few that I did reach were irate about me contacting them at that time.  One man answered the phone and told me that he was in one of the towers above the fire line.  He could not reach his wife, so he have me her number and asked me to call and tell her he loved her.  I did.  I don’t know which of us was crying harder.  That was it.  I could not keep making calls, so I went back to the Account Exec’s office and told him so.  He seemed shocked that I had been calling and asked why.  I told him I was following orders, he asked what idiot had told me to do that.  Needless to say, his assistant is a Republican.  The company cancelled all projects for the day.  Most of us gathered in the lunch room.  Because everyone knew I was an activist, they asked me what I thought would happen.  I told them that I expected the Bush Regime would use it as an excuse to do two things: crack down on civil liberties in the US and attack Iraq.  I wish I had been wrong.

In years past I have always avoided issues of culpability, but this year I cannot do so in good conscience.  That is because Republicans keep presenting themselves as the party that has kept America safe and Democrats as the party that puts America at risk.  On August 6, 2001, President Bush was given a top secret Daily Brief that Osama bin Laden intended to attack the US using explosives and hijacked Airliners.  The Bush Regime ignored the warning.  That is not the way to keep us safe.  Bush and the Republican party did not do so, nor were they able to bring Osama to justice.  It took a Democratic administration to do that.  I have no desire to politicize the day, but will do so as long as Republicans keep lying about it.  That explains the controversial “cartoon” I included in the Open Thread immediately preceding this article.

Let me close by honoring the fire firefighters and police who gave their lives and their health to save as many as they could and ask your thoughts and prayers for them and their families.  They were the heroes of that day.

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Jun 292012
 

A day has passed, and I got to spend most of it studying.  This is my best understanding of what happened and why, followed by three excellent video clips.  Please note that my thoughts on the motivations of Chief Justice Roberts are my own opinions only, and I do not present them as facts.

29ObamacareThe Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision upholding the nation’s health care law marks an enormous political victory for President Barack Obama in the heat of a re-election campaign, and affirmation as well for the Democrats’ decades-long drive to extend coverage to millions of Americans who now go without.

Yet if the sweeping changes mandated by the law will go forward, so, too, the political controversy. Presidential challenger Mitt Romney and Republicans seeking control of Congress will see to that, seizing on Chief Justice John Roberts’ ruling that the law levies a new tax on anyone refusing to purchase coverage.

The decision was rich in irony as well as in history.

It was the second time in four days — a ruling Monday threw out much of an Arizona state law on immigration — that a Roberts’-led majority upheld the Obama administration’s position on a noisy, contentious issue that has roiled the nation’s politics for years.

On this case, at least, Roberts seemed to be ruling through gritted teeth when he upheld the requirement that all Americans purchase health care.

“We do not consider whether the (law) embodies sound policies,” he wrote of the health care legislation that Republicans have vowed to erase. “That judgment is entrusted to the Nation’s elected leaders.”… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <Washington Post>

Frankly, I think this was a partially incorrect decision.  Roberts effectively ruled that the commerce clause does not apply, because an individual does not enter the health care market until he becomes ill.  However, the knowledge that one can be treated in an emergency room often plays a large part in the decision not to purchase health care.  Effectively people who can afford coverage, but are depending on the rest of us to pay their way, if needed, have entered the health care market by virtue of that decision.  Roberts could have ruled that way without stretching.  But Roberts is a highly partisan Republican.  I think he did not want to set a precedent favoring use of the commerce clause.  However, the Constitutionality of Obamacare is such a no-brainer, that I think Roberts was too concerned over the legacy of the Court bearing his name to hand down another boldly unconstitutional ruling so soon after Citizens United.  By calling the individual mandate a tax, he gave Republicans an arrow for their quiver.  Nothing incites Teabuggery faster than a new tax.  He also opened the door to repealing the tax in a future reconciliation (cannot be filibustered) budget.  To do that, Republicans need to do three things.  Keep the House, take the Senate, and keep the Regime goose-stepping in lock step, against the will of the people.  Roberts did as much as he could for his Republican allies, without producing another injustice on the order of Citizens United or Dred Scott.

According to factcheck.org, the minimum tax for people who can afford to, but refuse to purchase coverage will be $95 per person in 2014, $325 in 2015, and $695 from 2016 on.  The maximum tax per family will be $2,085.  Bear in mind that most trips to the emergency room cost $3,000 or more.  This should effect no more than 4 million people, not all Americans as Republicans deceptively claim.

In addition, the Court struck down part of the penalty to states that refuse Medicaid expansion.  Instead to taking all their Medicaid funding, the federal government can withhold only the additional funding targeted to the Medicaid expansion.  Many think this will lead to a two tier system with expanded Medicaid only in blue states, leaving millions in red states uncovered.  I disagree.  Obamacare reimburses states for Medicaid Expansion at 95%.  As much as Republicans love to bellow and whine about federal spending, they usually have no trouble not only taking federal money, but also, lying to take credit for getting it.  States who lose the expansion money will end up with 100% of the cost of sick people, until they join the Republican health care plan and die.  What a great incentive that will be for such states to turn blue.

Barack Obama spoke on what the ACA does.

He should have given this speech long ago and should keep giving it often.

Lawrence O’Donnell interviewed Michael Moore.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I’m pleased to note that Michael Moore, a demonstrably true progressive, supports Obama and Obamacare. I fully agree with Moore that we need to keep moving forward to improve Obamacare until it becomes like Medicare for for all.

Ed Schultz discussed what Obamacare will mean for America.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I agree with Ed.  All things considered this is a historic victory for Obama, The Democratic Party, and most of all, the American people.

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