Politics Plus

My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to all the Presidential debates.  If a candidate is 3% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 3% or less. I reduced this from 5%, because the election is only two days away.  I am also including my final projection, in which I predict all the states, no matter how close.  For the toss up states, I relied on the age of the available polls, the reliability of the research companies that conducted them, the methodologies they published, and when all else failed, gut instinct.  We’ll see how I did soon.

President:

Even States
State	EV	Obama	Romney
CO	9	47	47
FL	29	48	48
NC	16	46	48
VA	18	47	47

This represents an electoral vote count of 281 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama. .  Of the even states Obama leads in none , Romney leads in one (16 votes).  Three are tied (56 votes).  Overall this is a significant improvement for Obama.

The Senate:

Even Senate
MT	Tester – D	48
	Rehberg – R	47
ND	Heitkamp – D	48
	Berg – R	48
VA	Kaine – D	46
	Allen – R	45
WI	Baldwin -D	46
	Thompson -R	45

The current tally is:

Democrats: 50

Republicans: 45

Independent: 2

Undecided: 4

Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in 2 states, Republicans in 1 state.  1 state is tied.

This is a significant improvement for Democrats.

Map credit: 270 to Win

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.

It now appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and that Democrats will hold the Senate. 

Here are my final projections, with all states called.

President:

I expect Obama to win 303 to 235

The Senate:

I expect that the new Senate will include 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents. 

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.  The two things I cannot factor in are voter disenfranchisement, and Republican election theft crimes.

I don’t know if I can holds out, but on election  night I intend to live blog, updating maps as results come in.

Photo credit: Politico

In last night, Barack Obama was the clear winner.  He demonstrated that he has both a command of world affairs and a plan for the US within the community of nations.  Willard Romney, on the other hand, demonstrated that he has neither.  He was not comfortable in his own skin, as he parroted the same talking points over and over.  He not only switched positions on most foreign policy issues, but he also disavowed ever having held the opposite view, prompting me to coin the term Mittzophrenia.  In case you missed it, here is complete debate video.

If you prefer, here is the complete debate transcript.

Here are a few observations of mine.  Romney repeatedly parroted the phrase that we “need to help countries reject extremism on their own.”  Only once did he suggest how he would do that.  Trying to hijack Obama’s policy as his own, he included supporting economic development, better education, and gender equality.  I found this hard to imagine, since he goes to such great lengths to oppose these same policies here at home.

Romney was particularly maladroit when he referred to Syria as Iran’s route to the sea.  I can’t fathom how this could be since Syria is almost landlocked and Iran has over 1,500 miles of coastline.

Obama was masterful, when he schooled Romney that we don’t need as many ships as we did in 1916, since we also have fewer horses and bayonets, since capabilities count, not numbers.

Romney’s arguments were sprinkled with lies, the most egregious being the false claim that he had supported government guarantees for US automakers.  He said that he would charge Iran with advocating genocide, when the US does not recognize the World Court.  He said that he has always supported tougher sanctions on Iran, while profiting from investments in companies that traded with Iran when Obama was trying to bring the world together on increasing the sanctions.

Obama did stretch the truth once.  He said that Romney wants to import the “foreign policy of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s, and the economic policies of the 1920.”  I’m sorry, bit that’s just too modern on social policies.  The social policies of the 1850s would be far more fitting.

I am not alone in my view that Obama won the debate.  According to the instant surveys, CBS gave it to Obama 53% to 23% among undecided voters, and CNN gave it to Obama 48% to 40% among likely voters.

I do have a complaint against Bob Schieffer, but it is not a partisan complaint.  His questions kept covering the same limited ground, when there are so many other areas that could have been addressed, including the financial crisis in the EU, border security, immigration policy, global climate change, and the war on drugs.

One thing about the debate worries me.  Anyone who was completely unfamiliar with Romney’s foreign policy stances over the last two years would not consider Romney dangerous, as he kept parroting his dedication to non-military solutions, despite having beaten the war drums for two years.  In fact, he is all the more dangerous, because he has no ideas of his own, so he will defer to his foreign policy handlers.  These are the same neocons that brought us the ready, fire, aim policies of the Bush Doctrine, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the intent to attack and conquer Libya, Somalia, Chad, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.  Nothing could be more dangerous.

Two weeks ago a stranger showed up to debate Willard Romney, and I have to say that I was worried that the stranger might return.  My concern was in vain.  Barack is back!  After last night, I may have to change my nickname for Romney, Lord Willard, to Lord Lunch.  After providing you with the complete video of the debate, in case you missed it or wish to review it, I shall share some of my own observations.

First, here is the complete video.

If you prefer text, here is the transcript.

Romney arrived with an Etch-a-Sketch in each hand, and trotted out a cavalcade of lies, very similar to the list he inflicted on America during the first debate.  This time, Obama came loaded for skunk, and he bagged one.  Instead of letting Romney get away with his lies, Obama called him on them.  Here are just a few of the lies.  Romney said that fewer people are working today than there were before Obama took office, when there are more now.  The difference would be much larger but for the huge losses that occurred during the first six months, before any of Obama’s policies had gone into effect.  Romney said he appreciates wind energy jobs, when he had recently called them phantom jobs.  Romney said energy production on public land has decreased.  It has increased.  Romney said all women should have access to contraceptive care.  He has been campaigning on the exact opposite.  Romney said Obama doubled the deficit.  He has not.  Romney said automatic weapons are illegal.  They used to be, but Bush refused to renew the ban.  Romney actually said that self-deportation is just allowing people to make their own choices.  Ha!  Romney said he would crack down on China.  Not only did he object, when Obama did so, but also, cracking down on China would cost Willard a small fortune.

Romney even lied about asking for binders full of women.  He did not.  The binders full of women were prepared by MassGAP, a bipartisan group of women who wanted to address the lack of women in cabinet positions.  They did this and provided information to both parties before the election.  Then they presented the binders to Romney, upon his election.  The hype that Romney recognized the inequity and ordered the hunt to find qualified women is pure garbage!

Romney’s only strong point was that he succeeded of making himself appear competent on the economy by failing to answer any specifics about what he will cut.  It seems that some people are willing to assume being in business gives him the know-how, and to take it on faith

Romney was so must more aggressive than before, that Obama appeared to be defending himself from a bully, as indeed he was.  Romney also tried to bowl over Candy Crowley and looked very foolish when she put him in his place.

There were two high points.  When Romney said Obama had not called the Benghazi attack an act of terror and confronted Obama, Obama said “Please proceed”.  I knew that Romney was toast.  Romney was caught with his fingers on the Etch-a-Sketch.  Obama finished by pinning Romney’s avowed disrespect for 47% of Americans on him.

I’m not the only one calling this an Obama victory.  All the polls said Obama won, except Fox.  When the Republican Ministry of Propaganda, Faux Noise, calls it a ‘split decision’, you know it was a disaster for Republicans.

Welcome back, Barack!