Yesterday evening at 5:51 PM PDT, I watched the gates at the border of Kuwait closing behind the last vehicle of the last combat brigade to leave Iraq. I could not help but reflect on the long struggle to bring this war to an end. For me it began in 2001. On the morning of September 11, I was at work and, like most Americans, feeling stunned. My job that day was to contact CTOs and VP ITs in Fortune 500 companies in Manhattan to arrange site visits by a research team from a major software manufacturer. A made two calls, actually talked to someone in the WTC. The man asked me to call his wife and tell her that he loved her. I did. I felt totally freaked out! After that I refused to make more calls and was almost fired, but our company’s President showed up, sided with me, and suspended operations for the rest of the day. We gathered in the lunch room and a friend asked me what it all meant. I correctly identified Al Qaeda as the most likely culprit, and added that I felt certain that Bush would use the attack as an excuse to invade Iraq and curtail the rights of US citizens. Little did I know jusyt how prophetic I was. Nine long years later, these questions remain.
Why?
Bush took us to war for two, perhaps three reasons. Many neocons in the AEI and PNAC wanted GHW Bush to overthrow Saddam and had wanted to finish the job ever since, but this is the least of the factors. The dominant radical Wahhabi sect in Saudi Arabia takes strong exception to the presence of foreign troops so close to Islam’s two most sacred shrines. Thus, it would have been beneficial to Saudi relations to establish permanent military bases elsewhere in the Gulf. Iraq was an ideal location. Bush wanted to control the world’s fourth largest oil reserves for his cronies in US oil companies. UK participation cut BP in on the deal. Operation Iraqi Freedom was always a Republican lie, along with WMD and connections to 9/11. Iraq was always Bush’s war for oil and conquest.
Is it over?
In a word, No. 6.000 more combat troops will fly home within a week, and US forces remaining will officially be on combat status until August 31. Even after that, 50,000 troops will remain in so-called noncombatant roles. Those roles include embedding with Iraqi units as advisors. Having embedded troops in combat units is combat. Those roles will also include special forces operations against terrorists. Operations against terrorists is combat. So this withdrawal is more a media event than anything else. The two good things here are that Obama is completing the withdrawal on time and the the last 50,000 troops must be out by the end of 2011.
Who won?
The Iraqi people did not win. They may have gotten rid of a horrific dictator, but who can say if what comes will be any better? Far too many Iraqis have been killed. Estimates range from 160,000 to 1,300,000 as of October, 2008. Since the highest comes from Lancet, I consider it the most credible. Millions have been dislocated. The nation’s infrastructure is destroyed. Despite billions spent by taxpayers to restore it, Bush’s Republican minions squandered the money on corrupt Iraqi officials and criminal US corporations. Women had more rights under Saddam than they do now. At this point, Iraq doesn’t even have a government.
The US did not win. 4,415 of our fine troops have been killed and thousands more maimed. We have squandered about $800 billion on direct war costs, and that does not even include the cost of reequipping our units or providing well-deserved care for vets whose minds and bodies have been shattered in this war. Through no fault of our fine troops, we have not achieved any of the objectives we had when we entered the war.
If anyone has won, it is Iran. Since the majority of Iraqis are Shia, and since Iraq is divided on sectarian lines, Iran will exert more influence over that nation than anyone else. Considering the current impasse between Iran and the US, the consequences of Iran’s increased role in Iraq could well be dire.
Now What?
First we need to pray, hope, or whatever it is that you do, that the country does not fall apart before our final exit at the end of 2011. Second, we need to learn from our mistakes in Iraq. Even though we are the world’s only super power, we cannot achieve our goals through military action, unless we are supported by a broad coalition of partners who share equally in the combat and cost. Even then, military force must be a last resort. Third, we cannot remake the world in our image. Different cultures develop at different rates, and we cannot change that. Fourth and most important, Afghanistan presents far more military problems than Iraq ever did. The sooner we cut our losses there, the better.
