Never in living memory has this country been so sharply divided. Not only that, the division isn’t so much along state lines as it is within states and even cities. It’s Left vs Right, Progressives vs MAGA-hat bugnuts. It’s neighbor vs neighbor, and each side is convinced that the other epitomizes Evil, be it Communism or Fascism.
Many a right-wing wack job has declared that left-wingers, progressives and liberals had better watch out because they have targets on their backs. (Never mind that a lot of liberals, progressives and Democrats pack heat!) Proud Bois, Q-Anon and other right-wing bugnuts are actually hoping and even praying for a second Civil War. Um, ever heard the caveat be careful what you wish for? Wanna see Washington, DC in flames? Wanna see your home town get the crap bombed out of it, so you and your family – and your little dog too – spend years living in a refugee tent and getting your meals from a communal soup and sandwich dispensary?
The 6 January 2021 putsch reveals just how dangerous the Radical Right is. Those people were willing to invade the Capitol in order to squelch the results of a legitimate election. Even now, people keep screaming that Trump actually won. A few months ago I saw a billboard proclaiming that Trump received 120 million votes. Haw, haw, haw! Nearly 160 million people voted in the 2020 Presidential election. Neither Nixon in 1972 nor Reagan in 1984 enjoyed such a landslide. Rather than face reality, Trump’s stooges howl “Stop the steal!” and continue to raise hell.
Republicans in Congress have been consistently stymieing legislation vital to the health of democracy in the USA. Why? For no good reason, just because these bills are part of President Biden’s plan to restore this country. Build Back Better, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and other good bills all fell victim to blind, unthinking Republican hatred. Republicans have just one goal, to “own the libs,” and the good of this country and its citizens be damned.
So – is the United States headed towards a second Civil War?
The Political Instability Task Force ranks all countries on a scale from fully functional democracy to absolute dictatorship. For decades the United States was at +10, a perfect democracy; but now it has slipped to +5, a condition known as “anocracy,” when a country combines democratic and autocratic elements. The CIA uses this, among other criteria, to measure a country’s instability and likelihood of civil strife. According to Barbara F. Walter, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego, who is a member of the PITF, +5 is the beginning of where a lot of political violence begins. In her book How Civil Wars Start, she writes “If America has a second Civil War, the combatants will not gather in fields, nor will they wear uniforms…they will go on-line to plan their resistance, strategizing how to undermine the government at every level and gain control of parts of America. They will create chaos and fear. And then they will force Americans to pick sides.”
In other words, if you’re not with me, you’re against me.
Walter envisions the hypothetical Second Civil War as being more of an insurgency, not centralized at all but fought by multiple paramilitary organizations and militias, which at times will cooperate and at other times be at cross purposes. Instead of regular battles, there will be numerous assassinations and acts of terrorism, like The Troubles in Northern Ireland.
Another risk factor for Civil War is when a group that has long had hegemony realizes – or feels – that it is losing its dominance. In the United States, this group is white people, especially conservative Christian white men. Not all whites feel this way, of course; but many of those who do have no problem with shedding blood, and a lot of them are heavily armed. The USA is in the middle of a major transition from white-majority to racial plurality. Thus, conservative whites realize their power is shrinking, and they are terrified of no longer being large and in charge. The groups that start civil wars are usually the ones that feel they are losing power and are desperate to hang on to it. Because white men have held most of the power in this country since its inception, they resent seeing racial and religious minorities, as well as women and non-binary people, gain political power. They realize the future is multi-colored, and if they can’t prevent this, they can delay the inevitable, like spoiled brats stalling for time.
Time and again, racial, ethnic or religious groups who had long been the top dogs have resorted to violence when they knew they were losing their predominance. The insurrection in Washington last year, and recent not-so-subtle calls for secession by notorious right-wingers such as Ted Cruz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, show just how determined and powerful the USA’s Ancien Régime is.
We could be in for an unfortunately interesting decade or two – and remember, if worse comes to worst, we’ll be dealing with all the effects of climate change as well. Hold on tight and hope you survive the ride.
Further reading:
People who study the origins of civil wars see ‘indicators’ the US is on the brink of conflict
US is “closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe”
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