Europe and the US election

So close to the November 3 election, Americans might like to know what other nations think of another four years of Trump. The following article is one taken from 9 clips in The Briefing, a weekly background letter (e-mail) written by Darren McCaffrey, Euronews Political Editor with an overview of the most important European news across the continent that week.

For Europe, does it matter who wins the US election next week?

If it was up to Europe, Joe Biden would win next week’s US Presidential election, and win big.

Earlier this month, the polling company YouGov surveyed seven European countries – Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Denmark and Sweden – and found that over 60 per cent of people in all but one country wanted to see Joe Biden triumph over Donald Trump. Even in Italy, where support was highest for the incumbent, only 20 per cent backed Trump.

Clearly, this is not Europe’s election and we have no say in the final result but whoever wins will have a big impact on our politics for years to come.

For most of the post-World War II era, the United States, while not necessarily agreeing with its Western European allies on every issue, has shown commitment to our continent. This arrangement may have been mutually beneficial but it has also helped Europe prosper, bringing the Marshall plan, security from NATO and political unity, as well as support for the EU project.

Four years of Donald J Trump have proved, however, to be a cold, hard slap in the face for much of Europe. The predictability of the past 75 years has been challenged and replaced by mounting uncertainty. Assumed US support for the Iran deal, the Paris climate agreement and NATO simply haven’t been there. An understanding that the world operates on a set of principles and rules, enforced by the US, has been cast in doubt. Even the existence of the European Union as we know it has been questioned and undermined.

There is little doubt that Biden as president will restore a more familiar state of affairs but Europe’s relationship with the United States is unlikely to ever be the same again.

The Atlantic is getting bigger, America is changing, pivoting away from us and towards a big, more complex Asia-Pacific. The United States has always been a bi-oceanic nation but for most of our lifetimes, the trans-Atlantic relationship has dominated its view on the world. This is no longer the case. This pivot did not start with Donald Trump and rather dates back several presidents, accelerating under Barack Obama.

For Washington in the 20th century, Europe was the crux of international affairs, with its strategic rival Russia. In the 21st century, Asia and, more importantly, China are assuming this position.

Changes at home are powering this too. America is becoming more diverse; the number of white, Protestant Anglo Saxons with European heritage is decreasing. They are being replaced by growing numbers of people with Hispanic, African-American and Asian heritage whose view of the world has Europe on the periphery.

This huge, geopolitical dance should be an opportunity for Europe to define and assert its own, united foreign policy position. But for the time being, that seems to be more of an aspiration than a reality, simply because leaders often cannot agree. A point that was proved by the farce last month when the UK and Canada imposed sanctions on Belarus before the EU could because of other internal battles over Turkey. Surely, unanimity is no longer fit for purpose?

Over the past four years, Europe has had a wake-up call concerning what the future might hold. It cannot simply rely on the United States – a US that is prepared for trade wars, a more inward-looking nation, a country that might view the EU itself as a threat rather than a partner.

This means Europe standing on its own two feet, but that spells change. A Biden presidency might feel reassuringly familiar but we shouldn’t become complacent. The European Union needs to take decisive action now if it is to become the major global player it clearly wants to be.