COVID-19 Fact and Fiction #24

The world is dealing with an unprecedented health crisis caused by a new virus. With new insights in the way COVID19 spreads, in the way the virus behaves and in the way to deal with the pandemic every day, it is now more important than ever to safeguard the information we share is accurate and fact-based. We have to inoculate ourselves against the fake news and misinformation that infect our newsfeeds and timelines at this crucial moment by fact-checking.

For the duration of the pandemic, I will try to give you an overview of the main issues in CoronaCheck, an Australian email newsletter with the latest from around the world concerning the coronavirus, but now appear only once a week.*

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The COVID-19 misinformation and disinformation market seems to have dried up completely now that social media are focussing on other areas such as politics, in particular the upcoming American Presidential election. As fact-checkers have their hands full with all the disinformation spread on this subject, this may well be the last regular edition in this series.

“THE DEATH RATE IS NOT BEING OVERSTATED” REVISITED

Conspiracy theorists suggesting the COVID-19 death rate has been artificially inflated have turned to a document produced by the Western Australia Coroner’s Court as evidence of government deceit.

The document, a guide for medical practitioners completing death certificates, describes a situation in which a death can be assumed to have been caused by COVID-19, even when a person has not been tested for the disease.

“Where a person is known to have suffered typical symptoms of COVID-19, such as fevers, cough, or breathing difficulties, during a COVID-19 pandemic, but has not been formally tested or diagnosed, then it is reasonable to ‘assume’ the death was related to COVID-19 and should be recorded on the death certificate,” it reads.

The document appears to be in line with advice on the classification of COVID-19 deaths issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as well as international guidance provided by the World Health Organisation.

Both authorities stipulate that COVID-19 should be recorded on the death certificate of “all decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death”.

In one example of a post on an anti-vaccination Facebook page which links to the WA document, a user declares: “There you go. COVID guide for medical practitioners. This is how deaths in Australia are faked as covid deaths.”

But while some Facebook users appear to view the document as a reason to lose confidence in official death statistics, the WA branch of the Australian Medical Association told Fact Check the guidance was consistent with normal practice when it came to assuming a cause of death.

“There is some assumption involved in most situations and that is reasonable,” Andrew Miller, the president of the AMA (WA), said in an email. “Where a medical practitioner cannot reasonably assume a cause of death, they consult the coroner’s office and an inquiry or inquest may result.”

According to Dr Miller, the AMA considered the circumstances described in the document as a reasonable threshold for labelling a death as having been caused by COVID-19 and were more concerned that COVID-19 deaths were being underreported rather than inflated. [emphasis mine]

Noel Woodford, the director of Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, told Fact Check that he “didn’t accept the premise” that there was an overreporting of COVID-19 deaths, and that doctors made clinical judgements “all the time” when it came to reporting causes of death.

He agreed with Dr Miller that underreporting of COVID-19 deaths was of more concern than overreporting. He noted, however, that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community would affect how reasonable it would be for a medical practitioner to assume COVID-19 as a cause of death in the circumstances described by the document.

“If the prevalence is really low, then it’s not a reasonable assumption, because there are lots of other reasons that people could have a cough, and a fever, for instance,” he said. “But I would be surprised if a doctor wrote COVID on a death certificate without first having confirmation that COVID was in fact present, given the low prevalence of the disease in WA.”

He reiterated that cases, where a practitioner could not make a reasonable clinical assumption as to a cause of death, were referred to state coroners.

The very low number of COVID-19 deaths recorded in WA, just nine to date, would itself appear to contradict suggestions that numbers are being deliberately inflated.

 

A LESSON IN INTERNET POSTING AND MISINFORMATION FROM NEW ZEALAND

As New Zealand grapples with a new coronavirus outbreak after more than 100 days without any recorded community transmission, rumours, some of which evoke racist stereotypes, have been spreading as to the source of the outbreak.

One such rumour, since slammed during a news conference by Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, appears to have originated on Reddit when a user posted a list of dot points connecting unverified pieces of information.

The comment, which was picked up by right-wing groups who added racist remarks, suggested that a young woman had breached hotel quarantine in Auckland to visit a man who had recently arrived from Melbourne.

An interview with the man responsible for the original Reddit post, published by New Zealand journalist David Farrier, offers a fascinating look into how misinformation can quickly spiral out of control online.

The user, who fears he will lose his job over the incident, explained how he had heard rumours from friends and colleagues about an apparent breach of isolation.

“I made a poor decision to put that in writing on Reddit,” he said. “I realised a couple of hours later and removed it as much as I could, and by that stage, it had been used in screen shots.”

As noted later by the interviewer, Dylan Reeve, the Reddit user had done what many people do: “heard some rumours and ‘facts’ from a few places and put them all together”.

In this case, the initial online comment was used as the basis for a conspiracy theory rooted in racism which spread rapidly, earning a very public rebuke from the government.

According to Reuters, the New Zealand government said there was no evidence to support the theory posted online, but has not detailed an alternative explanation for the outbreak. Genomic testing is continuing.

 

GRAPHIC OF THE WEEK

With varying states of lockdown remaining in place across the country, and with Australians more aware than ever of good health and hygiene, the number of flu cases has fallen dramatically.

This graph, taken from the latest Australian Influenza Surveillance Report to be published by the Department of Health, shows laboratory-confirmed flu cases for 2020 (up to the week ending August 9) compared to previous years.

 

Things that don’t cure and/or prevent COVID-19

#40:

St John’s Wort
“St John’s Wort is a herbal remedy usually used as a treatment for depression. There is no evidence of it being used to treat or cure Covid-19. It can weaken the effect of life-saving medicines and cause dangerous side effects.” – Full Fact

 

*The facts in this article are derived from the Australian RMIT ABC Fact Check newsletters which in turn draw on their own resources and those of their colleagues within the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), of which RMIT ABC Fact Check is a member.