We have four weeks left before the 2018 Midterms. They are finally sufficiently close at hand that some of the research being done will be valid. Therefore, I’d like to give you a broad overview of what we can expect in November. The biggest unknowns are how big a backlash we can expect from the bogus confirmation of Pervert Kava-Nazi and how big a counter backlash Republicans can get from their lies about being the innocent victims.
The Washington Post, in partnership with the Schar School, polled the 69 districts that were rated as “toss-ups,” “lean Republican,” or “lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report this past August — and found that voters in such areas prefer a Democratic Congress by a margin of 50 to 46 percent. By contrast, in 2016, these same districts collectively favored Republican candidates by a margin of 56 to 41 percent.
The Democrats four-point lead in these battlegrounds might look perilously thin on first blush. But of the 69 districts polled, 63 are currently held by Republican incumbents; and to take the House, Democrats need to flip just 23. Which is to say: Pelosi’s party can afford to lose far more than half of these contests, and still get her the Speaker’s gavel. If Democrats win the popular vote across these battlegrounds by any margin at all, they will almost certainly win control of Congress’s lower chamber.
Should that happen, Democrats will owe college-educated women some thank-you cards. Demographically, the House battlegrounds are 7 percent more white than America as a whole; in previous elections, this dearth of African-American and Hispanic voters has rendered Democrats uncompetitive in most of these districts. But the battlegrounds are also 4 percent more college-educated than the country writ large — and in the Trump era, few things are more threatening to Republicans than a woman with a higher education: White, college-educated women in the battleground districts favor Democrats over Republicans by a whopping 62 to 35 percent margin, while white women without such diplomas back Republicans 49 to 45 percent… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <NY Magazine>
Here is the Real Clear Politics Senate Outlook:
|
Toss Ups 7 |
|
|
37 Safe or Not Up |
3 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
46 Safe or Not Up |
51 Seats Needed For Majority
You can see the difficulty we face. I expect 49 – 50 seats. I’d be thrilled with 51. We are more likely to make gains in 2020.
Here is the Real Clear Politics House Outlook:
|
Toss Ups 32 |
|
|
173 |
14 |
18 |
32 |
24 |
13 |
161 |
218 Seats Needed For Majority
Our chances are much better here. I expect 235 – 240 seats.
If you really want to get down and dig in the weeds, Politico analyzed and projected every House, Senate and Governor race. Have fun!
Finally, Lawrence O’Donnell highlighted a couple Democratic stars.
Lets take our government back!
RESIST!!
VOTE BLUE!!
28 DAYS!!
18 Responses to “Election Outlook 10/9”
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Unfortunately, neither of my Senators – who both voted for Kavanazi – are up for re-election this year. Fortunately, we can still get the Blue Tsunami as long as progressives get their arses to the polls and VOTE. I am doing my part, sending post cards to voters in order to encourage them to not just vote, but cast informed ballots. I will definitely vote, and at least I am (probably thanks to gerrymandering) in a district with a Rethuglican Rep so I have the opportunity to help flip one Congressional seat. In addition, here in Georgia we can make history in several ways by electing not just the USA’s first female black governor, but also the first female AND the first black governor of Georgia.
This year, vote blue no matter who. Then gear up for the 2020 elections and make sure all Democrats running are REAL Democrats, as in Progressives, not “moderate” DINOs!
Lawrence is always good to listen to, He is also very perspicacious. His remarks do give me some confidence. Actually, I am more worried about hacking than I am about voters. Ceclie Richards is definitely the expert on Texas, and she comes by it honestly, inherited from her mother. She’s a treasure.
Met Beto at our local town hall. Love this guy!!! I’ve already voted, BLUE!!! as well as hubs voting BLUE. VOTE BLUE, VOTE BLUE, VOTE BLUE!!!
I’ll send you a pic of me w/Beto…
You lucky gal, you! Snapping selfies with the next Senator from Texas!
Hi, Nameless,
Thanks!! He’s da Man!! here in TX!! He’s wonderful, and will represent TX through and through!
Not just that, but he also will sit down (after he done talking), and listen to folks who have questions, and takes time to explain and answer them, and how he will work for the future of TX, and our country, while drinking sweet tea with anyone who wants to talk to him.
Case in point: He sat down with a Veteran who was having problems with the VA about his checks coming in while he was pursuing his degree. After he finished talking, Beto got his name, and phone #, and called the VA later on, and got it fixed for this gentleman. Beto also told him to call him if he had any issues/problems in the future! WOW!
He is an asset that we need right now, and I firmly believe and support BETO.
You are lucky Pat. I wish I could meet him. He’s amazing.
Nita,
He’s a wonderful man, with a great personality, gracious, and kind. I was thrilled to meet him, and sent a pic to TomCat, with me & my friend & Beto here at my town hall meeting.
He listens, is compassionate, is a great motivator, a family man, and has been to all the counties in TX.
I wish I could have driven to Austin to have seen him with country legend Willie Nelson though, at the rally, but I don’t drive to Austin anymore, and I don’t like big crowds, I think 58,000 (?) or so…showed up, and that’s one huge! crowd! lol
Here’s a clip from the rally: Enjoy!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEhreQJGYC4
Have a good evening, and take good care. Hugs!
I received your pic with Beto. See today’s Open Thread.
Yay!! Thanks, Tom.
YVW, Luv!
While I hope to see Kava-NAH impeached at some point, I also personally hope that, that talk goes away until AFTER the election.
I think that topic has become counterproductive for us. It’s clear that Twitler is going to use it as a cudgel to beat his base over their heads to rile them up. The less Kava-NAH is heard about the better it will be for Democrats.
We’ve got plenty of talking points to use that WON’T serve to fire up the Rethuglicans. I say we let this one go … for now.
Eye on the prize! We can’t change things if we don’t win.
The Politico numbers look hopeful. I think it’s very possible that we could take the senate too. Lawrence and Cecile Richards also give me hope. What we must do now is get out and vote blue all over the country. I am very excited about our own Beto. I’m making sure that I take some of my gal pals with me to early voting and have them vote blue. We need a Democrat back in the senate here in Texas.
I’m hoping. I’m keeping expectations low, but I’m hoping! I could use me some Hurrahs! on Nov. 7th!
Cruz may be about to reap the wind…in his face, with spittle. How nice would that be?
It would be nicer if Cruz pisses into the wind!
Hoping for the best is all I can do. I know exactly what PP readers are going to do, but for the rest of America I can only
Thanks and hugs to all. I’ll reevaluate in 2-3 weeks.
We really need to win a lot of seats, no question about this election at all! None whatsoever!
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