Afghanistan: A Ray of Hope?

When Obama ran on expanding the war in Afghanistan in 2008, I supported him.  I was wrong, and when I’m wrong, I say so.   I did not realize just how corrupt Bush’s installed energy puppet from Unocal, Hamid Karzai, was and then extent to which Bush and Karzai had turned the people of Afghanistan against the US and the corrupt Karzai Regime.  The current COIN strategy cannot succeed, because counter-insurgency, without strong popular support is doomed.  Therefore, I support the establishment of a strict timeline for withdrawal.  There may be slight reason to hope for just that.

Taliban representatives and the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai have begun secret, high-level talks over a negotiated end to the war, according to Afghan and Arab sources.

The talks follow inconclusive meetings, hosted by Saudi Arabia, that ended more than a year ago. While emphasizing the preliminary nature of the current discussions, the sources said that for the first time they believe that Taliban representatives are fully authorized to speak for the Quetta Shura, the Afghan Taliban organization based in Pakistan, and its leader, Mohammad Omar.

"They are very, very serious about finding a way out," one source close to the talks said of the Taliban.

Although Omar’s representatives have long publicly insisted that negotiations were impossible until all foreign troops withdraw, a position seemingly buoyed by the Taliban’s resilience on the battlefield, sources said the Quetta Shura has begun to talk about a comprehensive agreement that would include participation of some Taliban figures in the government and the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops on an agreed timeline.

The leadership knows "that they are going to be sidelined," the source said. "They know that more radical elements are being promoted within their rank and file outside their control. . . . All these things are making them absolutely sure that, regardless of [their success in] the war, they are not in a winning position."

A half-dozen sources directly involved in or on the margins of the talks agreed to discuss them on the condition of anonymity. All emphasized the preliminary nature of the talks, even as they differed on how specific they have been. All expressed concern that any public description of the meetings would undercut them.

"If you talk about it while you’re doing it, it’s not going to work," said one European official whose country has troops in Afghanistan.

Several sources said the discussions with the Quetta Shura do not include representatives of the Haqqani group, a separately led faction that U.S. intelligence considers particularly brutal and that has been the target of recently escalated U.S. drone attacks in northwestern Pakistan.

The Haqqani group is seen as more closely tied to the Pakistani intelligence service than the Quetta Shura, based in the southwestern Pakistani province of Baluchistan. But one Afghan source, reflecting tension between the two governments, said Pakistan’s insistence on a central role in any negotiations has made talks difficult even with the Quetta group…

Inserted from <Washington Post>

Like I said, it’s a long shot, but I think this be the least horrid option in a situation so constrained by years of Republican mismanagement that no good options remain.