“The Gulf Stream is about to collapse!” the headlines scream. “It could happen as early as 2025! Total chaos is just around the corner!”
Or is it?
Face it – news people relish sensationalistic headlines, because as the old saw goes, if it bleeds, it leads. Any story that can generate click-bait headlines gets more attention. I have shared stories like this with my extensive mailing list to which I send articles and petitions, although I sometimes caution people to take such with a grain of salt or two.
Now cooler heads are speaking out. “Not so fast!” they declare. Yes, the Gulf Stream may collapse, but not for a few decades.
True, our planet is getting hotter, and the evidence points strongly to human actions as the main cause. However, that does not mean we are headed straight for Doomsday. We could be en route to complete societal collapse as weather patterns shift, leading to droughts, crop failures, famines, mass refugee migrations, disease and war. Thus, it can’t hurt to prepare for the worst. On the other hand, we shouldn’t get “Debbie Downer” syndrome and moan there is nothing we can do, we’re going to be back to troglodytes in a generation. We still have hope to curtail climate change and reduce its worst effects. We cannot stop the planet from warming – we have to deal with what this will bring about. But we can each do our little bit.
Climate change is prompting ice caps and glaciers to melt faster. More cold freshwater in the northern Atlantic slows down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and this weakens the gulf stream. But will it suddenly shut down in 2025? Probably not. Computer models may have suggested a cessation or at least a great weakening of the stream as early as 2025, but computer models are just that – models. They can give indications and reveal trends, but they are not always perfect or even accurate predictors of what will come.
Evidence from satellites suggests that the gulf stream has been weakening since the early 1990s, and it could shift south. Even if it does not turn off in 2025, even if it continues its merry way well into the 21st century, a weaker gulf stream means colder winters in northeastern North America and northwestern Europe. We will still see more and stronger hurricanes, as well as greater weather extremes, expanding deserts, wet areas getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Climate change is already affecting weather patterns, and could have some affects we have not anticipated. Changes in ocean currents can be devastating to large swaths of land, if not entire continents.
However, we should not react with fear and panic, but preparation. We also shouldn’t take too seriously the Doomsday Dons hollering about an imminent collapse of the gulf stream, or the AMOC, though there is plenty of compelling evidence they are both getting weaker. We don’t fully understand the complexity of ocean currents, or weather, or climate. We do, however, know the planet is getting hotter, and that human action is causing this or exacerbating a natural trend. We need to lean on our elected officials to do more to curb our contribution to climate change, as well as prepare for the troubles it will bring.
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