The US midterms showed more than a weakened Trump and a relieved Biden. Are the prophets of doom right about America?
I’ve been posting disappointed, cynical and perhaps even angry comments on Politics Plus since the polling booths closed. That may seem a little unfair to many Democrats who are happy the Red Wave didn’t come to fruition and election day was spared expected violence from the right. However, as seen from afar through a democratic lens, both events are not enough. We had hoped for more. I leave it to Stan Grant, an Australian analyst, to explain what the American midterms mean to a long-term ally. His article is taken in full from the ABC News site.
You can hear the sighs of relief that the anticipated red wave in the American midterm elections did not happen.
The United States has been spared a resurgent Trumpism … at least for now. The question is: why did anyone think there would be a resounding Republican triumph?
Remember the presidential election? The same pundits were predicting a blue wave. An America exhausted by the turmoil of the Trump years, they said, would swing behind the Democrats and Joe Biden.
Well, just like now, there was no wave. Yes, Biden won the presidency. But nearly 70 million people voted for Donald Trump, the highest number of votes ever for a sitting president.
America is divided. That’s the point. These midterms have just underlined it.
The US is wracked with political tribalism, cutting across fault lines of class, race and geography. So weird is American politics that in a poll before the midterms most Americans believed the Democratic Party, not the Trump Republicans, is the more extreme.
America is so unruly. So apparently ungovernable that some have even wondered if the Union itself will hold. At their most breathless, prophets of doom have warned of civil war.
Of course, America has been here before. It has actually had a civil war. In the 1960s the United States was torn apart by political assassinations, riots, racism and economic strife. In the 1970s it weathered Watergate and the corruption of the Nixon presidency.
America can always rebound. It is still a beacon for so many. At its best it remains a dazzling place. But equally the past 50 years may just prove that America’s unravelling is long and deep.
American decline continues
Those breathing a little easier now need to ask themselves what they are celebrating. A Biden reprieve? The likelihood of another Biden term at the next presidential election? What is there to be relieved about in an ailing nation where far too many have abandoned hope?
Biden has not arrested American decline. Inflation is rampant. The economy is shrinking. The poor are getting poorer. Life expectancy is decreasing. Americans have less faith in democracy, not more.
When Biden took power he promised to re-energise the country. America would build things again. It would regain its moral core. It would lead the world, not shrink from leadership. America is back, said Biden.
But what has happened? Serious questions are being asked about Bidenomics: his stimulus cash splash only fuelled inflation. His America is more protectionist. He urges Americans to buy American; laws promote the use of American iron and steel and hands out subsidies to local manufacturers in industries like electric vehicles.
All of that might boost local jobs. But analysts warn there is a downside. Protectionism hurts other nations. It inspires tit for tat – beggar thy neighbour – economic retaliation.
The Economist newspaper recently warned of increasing red tape, of higher prices for goods, dulling Biden’s “go-green” environmental push. It warned that such measures tempts other countries into China’s orbit.
The Economist wrote: “Rather than putting up barriers, America should reap the benefits of openness.”
Abroad, Biden’s first two years in office were marked by the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. The most powerful military in the world humbled by the Taliban.
Yes, Biden has sought to rally democracies. He has thrown his support – but not troops on the ground – behind Ukraine in its defence against Russian invasion.
Biden says don’t bet against America. But the jury is out on that.
Xi Jinping is a wild card
Putin’s Russia is not Xi Jinping’s China. There is a greater threat looming: war over Taiwan. Biden has been confused and confusing in his response. He pledges that the US will defend Taiwan only for the White House to have to walk back his words.
China, not Russia, looms over the 21st century. It is on track to usurp the US as the biggest economy in the world. Even as its economy slows it is still growing at around 4 per cent while America stands on the brink of recession with growth at 1 per cent.
Joe Biden will now sit down with Xi Jinping, a meeting of the world’s two most powerful leaders. Both leaders need the meeting. Both face headwinds. But Xi Jinping believes he needs America less than America needs China.
For certain, Biden cannot dismiss Xi. The unipolar world – the American century – looks to be over. The era of great power competition is upon us again as the Chinese ask: Can two tigers live on the same mountain?
Xi Jinping is a wild card. President for life. He dresses in military fatigues and warns of war. But Xi is not Vladimir Putin. He cannot easily be put in the deep freeze and Biden must talk with him.
A rapprochement is too much to expect but new Cold Warriors who think China can be isolated, who imagine a showdown with China, flirt with catastrophe.
What do the midterms tell us?
This is the backdrop to the midterm elections: war, the threat of war, economic strife, an ailing America and a nation far from the so-called shining city on the hill.
What do the midterms tell us? Donald Trump is weakened but it is too soon to write him off. He still has a grip on the Republican Party.
Trump is a carnival act. An American Barnum and Bailey creation. He’s personally odious and politically dangerous. He has concocted conspiracies. Incited insurrection. Exploited racism. Bragged of his misogyny and sexual predatory.
Yet he speaks to the dying heart of the country. His vision is American carnage, not American dreams. And right now, for too many Americans, that sounds right.
After the elections American politics faces gridlock. Neither party commands the country. But the midterms were not just about Democrats and Republicans. They were about America.
And that means they were about all of us.
Stan Grant is the ABC’s international affairs analyst and presenter of Q+A on Thursday at 8.30pm. He also presents China Tonight on Monday at 9:35pm on ABC TV, and Tuesday at 8pm on the ABC News Channel.
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