As of today, there are 99 days left until election day, and hopefully, not much longer before the US has a President for the first time since Obama left office. It would be hard for things to look much better for Joe Biden.
The polls say things are looking very good for former Vice President Joe Biden. Polling averages show the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. And some eye-popping surveys even have him leading President Donald Trump in Texas, which hasn’t gone for a Democrat since 1976. But is it all too good to be true? Many Democrats certainly seem to think so.
“I don’t trust polling,” Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told the Atlantic. “I don’t believe that Biden is 16 points up in Michigan; that’s a bullshit poll, and it’s the same people who said Hillary [Clinton] had it in the bag.”
Dingell is among the Democrats traumatized by polling missteps last cycle, which led surveys to overlook the strength of Trump’s support in key battleground states including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — three states Clinton was counting on to win the election. In a late-October survey of Wisconsin, for example, the Marquette Law School poll had Clinton up by 6 percentage points, while Trump ultimately won the state by 0.7 points.
After the election, pollsters conducted an autopsy of why there was such a disconnect between state polls and the final electoral outcomes (though perhaps less so than some Democrats believe).
The review, led by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), identified multiple factors: For one, some pollsters failed to weight for education — so more educated individuals who favored Hillary Clinton were overrepresented in samples and skewing the results. For another, many surveys missed the wave of undecided voters who may have broken for Trump at the last minute.
Importantly, as many pollsters frequently emphasize, the way polls are interpreted also matters: These surveys, after all, are intended to be a “snapshot” in time, and not necessarily predictive of the election’s final result. It’s worth noting, too, that there are variables that make every cycle different: According to a mid-July New York Times analysis, because of the polling lead he currently has, Biden would still win key battleground states if the polls had errors comparable to the ones they saw in 2016… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <Vox>
Map credit: medium.com
Trump won these key states in 2016. Now, he’s losing them
Of course, the worst thing we can do is to become complacent and overconfident. That could give Trump* at least four more years man maybe make him permanent Fuhrer of the Republican Fifth Reich. Nevertheless, day after day of ever increasing horrors can tire us to the point of PTSD. Therefore, it’s important that we recognize the light at the end of the tunnel to give us hope. Go, Joe! Go!
RESIST!!
8 Responses to “Go, Joe! Go!”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
I hope and pray every single night, … that dt is outed, and gone in November. 4 more years? Uh, Hel- NO!
And to show how much he really truly cares about us, and the Nation, he golfs at every opportunity he gets.
I seem to recall thoughts that some of the polls showing Hillary ahead by comfortable margins, in the rust belt, may have been purposeful misinformation put out by the Russians!
Florida? Arizona? Maybe because of the rampant growth in Covid-19 cases? Otherwise I view these with much skepticism…even in Pa.
Are there any Democrats who weren’t traumatized by 2016? Not to mention the fact that a mere victory is not enough – we need a landslide. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Johnson James Buchanan, were bad, but none of them refused to leave the office when they lost (though God only knows what they might have done were they taking large quantities of Adderall and cocaine. Besides the fact that none of them was, as far as we know, an enemy agent. Not caring about anyone but himself is one thing. Openly making war on his own country in service of another is a very different order of magnitude. I wish the media would grasp that and tell it loudly and strongly.)
There’s no way that our country could take on another 4 years of this incompetent leader.
I too pray that Joe continues to lead over tRump and that tRump will be gone…permanently.
After seeing how tRump has down played these critical times, like the killing of George Floyd, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Black Lives Matter protesters, hopefully the people all around the U.S. will finally see that tRump is not for the people. He’s only cares about himself.
We must fight together, to get Joe voted into office.
If Trump were to win, he would absolutely destroy our country.
The sad thing is that his losing will still be an existential threat – because who knows what he’ll try to do.
Having been burned four years ago, I dutifully avoid looking at polls. OK – a glance … but that’s it.
I think the scenario that undecideds broke for Trump in 2016 is probably true. That was a one-off election where BOTH candidates were intensely disliked.
No matter what you think of Joe Biden politically, he’s a decent and likeable person. It’ll be much easier for undecideds to vote for Biden than Trump this time around.
I remember four years ago when everyone was optimistic about a Democrat’s chances of winning the election after two terms of another Democrat, which wasn’t usual at all, I understood from political and historical analysis. I also remember that Hillary had the worst ratings in a very long time of any Democratic candidate in her own party but that same party was sure Blue would win. I also remember all of us at PP saying not to be complacent and above all, not to vote for a third party or write Bernie in.
Chances are much better now for Biden than they ever were for Hillary. Biden is far more popular than Hillary ever was and Trump has proven himself disastrous for the country all thanks to a virus. And this article should give Democrats hope that he will win and be a much better president than Trump. But the warnings should be as strong as in 2016: get your vote in, no matter what, and vote for Biden, nobody else.
Never be complacent because things might be different again this year and those people who voted for Trump at the last moment might now be scared enough to vote for him again.
‘If Trump doesn’t win … there might be an actual nationwide rebellion’, With the election looming, the United States is a nation at war with itself.
That article paints an accurate contrast between good and evil!
Thanks and Hurry Hugs to all.
The difference between 2016 and this year is not just the Trump* virus plague. In 2016, people based their votes on what Trump* said. This year, they will base their votes in what he did. That list is long and ignominious.