COVID-19 Fact and Fiction #17

The world is dealing with an unprecedented health crisis caused by a new virus. With new insights in the way COVID19 spreads, in the way the virus behaves and in the way to deal with the pandemic every day, it is now more important than ever to safeguard the information we share is accurate and fact-based. We have to inoculate ourselves against the fake news and misinformation that infect our newsfeeds and timelines at this crucial moment by fact-checking.

For the duration of the pandemic, I will try to give you an overview of the main issues in CoronaCheck, an Australian email newsletter with the latest from around the world concerning the coronavirus, but now appear only once a week.*

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WHY FACT-CHECK?

As cases have continued to climb across Melbourne (in Victoria, Australia) doorknockers have targeted hotspot suburbs where community transmission is a concern, encouraging people to be tested.

Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said authorities had been “smashing targets for testing” with more than 164,000 people tested across Victoria and doorknockers reaching nearly 95,000 homes in just a few days,

But she said that more than 10,000 people had refused to be tested for a range of reasons, including that they may have already been swabbed.

She said officials were analysing the data for more clarity on their reasons. “It is concerning that the report that I have received is that some people believe coronavirus is a conspiracy or that it won’t impact on them.”

The statistics aren’t in yet, but it is worrying that people may believe unsubstantiated news and social-media myths and come to decisions based on these which could endanger their health and those around them and which could prevent the Victorian government from getting this outbreak under control. Apparently, fact-checking and countering online misinformation time and time again on social media is still very necessary as the following examples bear witness to.

THE ACCURACY OF COVID-19 TESTS

In one Facebook post spotted by Fact-check this week, a slick, shareable infographic posted by a newly-created Facebook page claims there is “no evidence” that COVID-19 tests used in Australia are accurate. The post, shared by Friends of Truth, also states they have not been safety tested and are “unapproved”.

A spokesman for the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) explained that there were two types of tests in Australia — PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests used to diagnose COVID-19 and serology (antibody) tests, used to provide historic information about a person’s exposure to the virus.

“[The PCR] test is very accurate and is the primary method of diagnosis of a COVID-19 infection. False negative or false positive results can occur, but this is rare.”

“All sponsors of COVID-19 test kits included in the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods (ARTG) are required [to] provide evidence to the TGA to support the quality and performance of the tests,” the spokesman continued.

On the claim that tests hadn’t undergone safety checks, the spokesman said the TGA was undertaking a “post-market review” of serology tests, including independent testing by the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity. Furthermore, Australian laboratories accredited to undertake COVID-19 testing were subject to “strict regulatory requirements” and “participated regularly in quality assurance programs to ensure the nucleic acid and serology-based COVID-19 tests in use are of the highest quality for the Australian community”.

At the beginning of the pandemic some tests were subject to an “emergency exemption” limited to accredited pathology laboratories but as there now are sufficient tests included in the ARTG exemptions are no longer necessary.

 

DON’T TAKE FACEBOOK POLLS AT FACE VALUE

The Friends of Truth page also claims that a poll conducted by 2GB radio host Ben Fordham found that “79 per cent of Australians oppose a compulsory vaccination”; a claim which has been shared more than 1,400 times.

But that statistic is problematic at best as the poll in question was not conducted according to professional standards because the question, “Do you think a Coronavirus vaccine should be compulsory?” was posted on Facebook, where the “yes/no” poll attracting 53,000 responses.

Anne Kruger, Asia-Pacific Director of verification organisation First Draft, told RMIT ABC Fact-check that First Draft researchers had regularly observed groups and individuals targeting Facebook polls to manipulate results. “Followers are asked to ‘raid’ the polls and vote according to the groups’ desired outcome,” Ms Kruger said. “This underscores the lack of reliability from such polls for the public to make informed decisions.”

Fact-check found the poll was shared by celebrity chef and coronavirus conspiracy theorist Pete Evans, who encouraged his 1.5 million followers to answer “No”, and was also posted multiple times to the page of the conspiracy group “99% unite Main Group — it’s us or them”.

That made the poll  “certainly not restricted to Australians,” she added. “We can see it was shared in public anti-vaccination and conspiracy theory groups in other countries as well, including the US, with members encouraged to vote ‘No’ to the question about the coronavirus vaccine.”

A further search by Michael Workman from the ABC’s Investigations Unit, connected with CrossCheck, found that Friends of Truth‘s website was registered to Ben Mitchell. On his Facebook page, musician Ben Mitchell posted a video in May stating that he had set up a Friends of Truth page on LBRY, a video, music and e-book sharing website.

 

HOW ABOUT THAT “SECOND WAVE”?

As Victoria battles a surge in coronavirus cases, the state’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer has sought to reassure the community that the uptick is not a “second wave”. But what does that mean? And can we expect a second wave eventually?

According to fact-checkers at USA Today, the concept of a “second wave” was first used as a metaphor during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, when the disease briefly abated during summer months before fatalities picked up again.

But medical historian Howard Markel told USA Today the disease may not have come in “waves” at all. “It may be that they were hiding from it and as more people came out they were exposed to it,” he said.

The fact-checkers found that a claim that all past pandemics had featured a second, more deadly wave was historically inaccurate and that there was “no rule in epidemiology” dictating that a pandemic involves increasingly severe waves of infection.

“In many instances, including the current COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of waves may not accurately describe the course of the pandemic,” they concluded. “Rather, the trajectory of the virus will largely be determined by the varied human responses to the new coronavirus.”

 

FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

Let’s not look at Trump this time but at his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence and his attempts to downplay the COVID-19 outbreak in the US.

According to fact-checkers at the Associated Press, Mr Pence last week told US senators that they should focus on the “encouraging signs”, and on Sunday said in a television interview that coronavirus outbreaks were occurring in only “4 per cent of all the counties in this country”.

But as AP reported, while it was correct that about 4 per cent of US counties were reporting increases in COVID-19 cases, they accounted for more than 20 per cent of the US population. “The emphasis on a percentage of counties makes for a misleading portrayal of the virus threat,” the fact-checkers said.

CNN’s Fact First also took a look at Mr Pence’s claims, including that all 50 US states were “opening up safely and responsibly”. According to the fact-checkers, Mr Pence’s claim came as “about 30 states were experiencing increases in the rate of new cases” and as states “reopened without having met the administration’s recommended safety milestones”.

Mr Pence also claimed that “to one extent or another, the volume of new cases coming in is a reflection of great success in expanding testing across the country”. However, as the New York Times pointed out in a fact-check, “ramped up testing alone does not account for the uptick in cases”. There had also been an increase in positive tests as a proportion of all tests.

 

Things that don’t cure and/or prevent COVID-19

#33: Hand dryers
“Hand dryers are not effective in killing the 2019-nCoV. To protect yourself against the new coronavirus, you should frequently clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.” – World Health Organisation

 

*The facts in this article are derived from the Australian RMIT ABC Fact Check newsletters which in turn draw on their own resources and those of their colleagues within the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), of which RMIT ABC Fact Check is a member.