A SOFT, A HARD OR NO BREXIT? THAT IS THE QUESTION, AGAIN.
Today, Tuesday 11/12/2018, should have been the day British Prime Minister Theresa May would have put the Brexit deal, which she has been negotiating for two years with the EU in Brussels, to the vote of the MP’s in parliament. However, at the last moment, the British government decided yesterday to postpone the House of Commons vote indefinitely. Mrs May had come to the same conclusion as everyone else: the current agreement would receive insufficient support in parliament. Dozens of Conservative MPs had been planning to join forces with Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the DUP to vote down Mrs May’s deal. Especially the status of Northern Ireland and border with Ireland is a problem.
Mrs May announced that she still intended to put her deal to MPs, but she would first ask the EU for more “reassurances”. To get these “reassurances” she has started her round of talks with European leaders this morning at the Catshuis in The Hague, where she’s met with Dutch PM Rutte. The relations between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are very good despite the Brexit plans. Within the EU, the two countries often draw together.
After that, Mrs May is to meet with German PM Angela Merkel. It is unclear if Mrs May will meet with other European leaders in the coming days. Several of them have already said that there is little more to negotiate and EU-president, Donald Tusk has confirmed this on Twitter:
Tusk’s statement means that no letter will change to the agreement made between the British government and the EU last month. However, a passage may be added in the accompanying political statement to clarify certain points in the agreement.
At this point in time, the Irish border backstop proposal seems to be the largest bone of contention. It concerns the border between Northern Ireland, which will leave the EU as a part of Great Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which will of course remain. After Brexit, it will become the only land border between the UK and the European Union. (Although Spain-Gibraltar is also a topic still under discussion)
The backstop proposal is intended to be a safety net, a way of avoiding (the return of) a hard border in Northern Ireland, if appropriate customs arrangements cannot be agreed by the EU and UK in time for the end of the transition period in December 2020. The EU believes the backstop should mean Northern Ireland to stay in the single market for goods and the customs union until the UK comes up with solution to the border issue. Mrs May wants a backstop that would see the whole of the UK staying in the customs union for a limited time after the transition period, something the EU has said is unacceptable.
Adding to the problem, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said it was not possible to renegotiate the Irish border backstop proposal without “opening up all aspects” of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. The British Tory rebels and the DUP do not like the Northern Ireland “backstop”, because it is a legally-binding proposal for a customs arrangement with the EU, which would come into force indefinitely if the two sides cannot agree a future relationship which avoids the return of customs checkpoints on the Irish border.
But to be frank, the backstop is only one problem the British can’t agree on; it is impossible to negotiate a deal with Brussels that will please everyone. So, for now there is a array of possible outcomes, ranging from a disorderly Brexit with no deal to another referendum on EU membership. Staying in the EU has now become an option again as the European Court of Justice ruled the UK can cancel Brexit if it wants
The question is of course if Mrs May will be the one to initiate the next step. Leading Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Moggis is trying to get enough Tory MPs to submit letters of no confidence in the PM to trigger a leadership contest. Crispin Blunt became the 26th MP to do so on Monday, but as 48 Conservative lawmakers must submit letters for any challenge to be initiated, it’ll take a while before they make the numbers, to the dismay of Boris Johnson who has been looking to fill Mrs May’s quirky shoes for a long time. Boris Johnson stated in interviews that he could make a much better deal, without a backstop, than Theresa May, but later on that the UK should withhold payments to Brussels and prepare to leave the EU without a deal Which led the former foreign secretary, Sir Alan Duncan to note that Mr Johnson was the “last person on Earth who would make any progress in negotiating with the EU at the moment.” Let’s hope that most Tories see the value of that remark and that Mrs May is safe for now, unless the Labour Party tables a vote of no confidence in the PM.
The fact that US President Trump is also stirring the pot, pushing for a hard Brexit with no deals, by taking back his promises of “great trade negotiations with Britain” because Mrs May’s deals are too soft to his liking, doesn’t give either Britons or Europeans much confidence in a good outcome either.
Sources:
Theresa May calls off MPs’ vote on her Brexit deal
Brexit: Theresa May to meet EU leaders in bid to rescue deal
May heeft ‘brexit-ontbijt’ met Rutte
Brexit vote postponed by British Prime Minister Theresa May, plunging deal into turmoil
Boris Johnson: Go forward with Brexit deal but remove the backstop
Posted to Care2 HERE
UPDATE 12/13/2018
I was quite wrong. Theresa May wasn’t safe for long at all; in fact her leadership was challenged the next day. However The PM won the ballot on her leadership by 200 votes to 117 on Wednesday night. (GMT). She’s now heading to Brussels for an EU summit, less than 24 hours after surviving that vote of confidence. Again Mrs May is seeking legally binding pledges from EU leaders on the Irish backstop. It is understood the EU will not renegotiate the deal but may be willing to give greater assurances on the temporary nature of the backstop.
9 Responses to “As Seen from Afar 12/11/2018”
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If they’d only face up to the fact that May & the Government dived into Brexit on the basis of a vote (supposedly advisory) on something that even Parliament hadn’t begun to understand all the implications & ramifications … let alone the voters, who were being fed misinformation (especially, but not only, by the Leave campaign).
Now, people are starting to find out all the complications & disadvantages – and costs – of a Brexit … Apart from a certain very ‘obstinate’ group of aggressive Brexiters (several of the leaders having vested interests, e.g. to be free from EU controls related to fiscal paradises, for example! – and some having opened offices in Ireland & other EU states so as to work around losses of the UK from being outside the EU …), many people want the right to a new INFORMED vote on Brexit – to include dropping Brexit as an option. Over 1 million in the streets of London reflects this …
And it would be possible – https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643
“The European Court of Justice has ruled the UK can cancel Brexit without the permission of the other 27 EU members. ”
What a mess! A long, long way from British pride that ‘Britannia rules the waves”!
Excellent points!
I’m still reading.
Yes, sounds messy right now! Thanks, Lona for this informative post.
I’m still reading. Thanks, Lona for this informative post.
Thanks so much for this, Lona!
Like most Americans, I was shocked and saddened when Brexit passed (if for no other reason than Twitler supported it).
But why PM May and the Tories triggered Article 50 before developing detailed plans on how they were going to actually accomplish their EU departure is a mystery to me. (Well, other than PM May is reportedly quite stubborn.)
What a mess they’re in. It’s like your cat howling at the door to be let out – so you open the door and the cat stands right in doorway … neither going out nor staying in. And then looks at you as if to say, “Are you really THAT dumb to have opened the door in the first place?”
Excellent image.
Thanks for this- there are so many lessons for Americans here. Especially as there are people talking about secession as a possibility. The Irish backstop issue certainly illustrates what a nightmare that could be for us. And it brings up in my mind even the issue of citizenship, which is already getting scary for other reasons.
I had not realized that the European Court had ruled that Britain would be allowed to cancel. Good for the Court. That appears to me like the best possible solution for this mess … not that I am terribly optimistic.
Boris Johnson … I realize that parents whose surname is Johnson will want to avoid baby names like Peter and Dick and Willy, but BORIS? Where did that come from? I’m sure he was bullied over it as a child as least as much as he would have been as a Willy. Not that that excuses him, but it might help to explain him.
In the run up to the Brexit vote, there was so much outright lying and misrepresentation as I recall. And then the vote. All of a sudden, things did not look so well with Britain outside the EU. But Mrs May said that Britons had spoken with their vote and dug her heels in. She totally ruled out another referendum. Maybe she should soften her tone on that especially as I heard earlier, the European Court has declared that Britain can take back their declaration if they want to.
My advice to Mrs May, allow another referendum — stay in the EU or Brexit.
Nameless found this video of Lord of the Rings actor Andy Serkis who played Gollum. Serkis uses Gollum’s voice and presentation to play PM Theresa May.
They need a “Do-Over!” Without Russia’s influence!