As Seen From Afar 7/17/2016

Most Americans will be aware that the Republican Convention will start tomorrow, but for those living elsewhere that news may have been eclipsed by the shocking news of other events such as the horrific attack in Nice or the attempted coup in Turkey. For those who want to do a quick catching up, get some background information, familiarize themselves with this particular convention for the first time or are just interested in a Dutch view on a very American happening, the translated article below may be of interest.

A NEW IMPULSE FOR THE TRUMP BRAND

Monday the Republican Convention starts in Cleveland: a lot of air time for Donald Trump, the most unpopular presidential candidate ever. In the next few days in Cleveland Trump can thoroughly reorganize the party.

By our correspondent Guus Valk in Washington.

“Schedule of the Convention will be announced tomorrow," Donald Trump tweeted last Wednesday. "Let’s talk today about Crooked Hillary and the corrupt system under which we are suffering."

After this tweet eight days of silence set in around Donald Trump. He did produce names of speakers for the Republican Convention in Cleveland, which commences on Monday, let alone come up with a schedule. Only at the end of this a provisional list week was published. That list was more than remarkable, especially because of the many names that are not on it.

There are hardly any party public figures on the list. Former presidential candidates Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole will not attend. The whole Bush family is absent. There are just as many Trumps who speak as senators do (both six). Only four of the 31 Governors are willing to give a talk. The list is supplemented by speakers from the network TV world, where Trump feel at home. TV stars will be speaking, such as former model Antonio Sabàto, Jr. and Kimberlin Brown of The Bold and The Beautiful.

This is not a Republican Convention.

Donald Trump will have himself crowned this week in the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland as presidential candidate for the Republican party. But of that party there’s hardly a trace. Republicans who can afford to stay away, won’t show. Instead outside the motorcycle club Bikers for Trump will drive around, complete with weapons and flag-waving. They’re going to "guarantee the safety" of the visitors, said a spokesman. "Paid rioters on Trump-meetings throw eggs and become violent. We won’t permit that here."

Four days of Trumpism

American political parties organized Conventions until well into the twentieth century to decide who could lead the party. This task has slowly faded into the background. Conventions became applause machines, tailored to primetime TV.

That is why Conventions last four days these days: those are four nights of free advertising on all networks. The week after the Republicans the Democrats will show how that’s done: applause, balloons, confetti and no hassle around the candidate, Hillary Clinton.

This Republican Convention is different. This is no celebration of conservatism, this is four days of Trumpism. Trumps ideas are miles off from the Republican consensus, they are often even contradictory to it.. The party leadership is deeply embarrassed by the candidate who has won the primaries, and rather sees the coming Convention as an advertisement against the Republicans. In November not only a new president is elected, but also a large part of Congress. The party leadership fears losing the majority in the Senate and see Trump as a great risk.

However, the party is not a mechanism to dump Trump. The Democrats have built in the mechanism of 'super delegates', unpledged public figures with voting rights, through which the elite can smother the chances of any unwanted candidate. Republicans don’t have this escape. They have to make do with the candidate whom the voters, often not even tied to the party, decide on. The horrified party leadership saw how Trump managed to defeat sixteen competitors.

Gap between top and voter

This is not unique to the Republicans. Whenever political parties in Western democracies allow their constituencies to choose a leader, this may well go wrong for party leadership. Just think about Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: unpopular with his fellow party members in the House of Commons, and not seen as a leader who brings in votes for the party. Yet someone who retains his position because he does well with active constituents.

Trumps situation is similar. He benefits from the huge gap between party leadership and Republican voters. Speaker Paul Ryan of the House of Representatives, de facto party leader, wants the party to modernize. Republicans need to stick to the core conservative ideas, such as a small government, low taxes and traditional family values. In addition the party must open itself up to a changing America. Latino-voters, African-Americans, young women should also feel at home, he says, because the base (older white men) is shrinking.

Donald Trump has cut across this strategy completely. He became popular because he took aim against 'political correctness'. He took on his own party as well as Democrats. Trump is not in favor of free trade, calls for preservation of the Welfare State and is not at all against government intervention. That is, as long he leads that government. He’s insulted virtually all groups in American society, making it impossible for Paul Ryan’s broad coalition ever to succeed. Trump's support among black voters is around 1%.

Trumps natural base consists of lower educated white voters who believe that they are the losers of Barack Obama's America. That has been a mighty group during the Republican primaries, but not for November, when Trump will have to convince floating voters.

Although the dissatisfaction with Trump is large, there may be in Cleveland virtually nothing more can happen to dethrone Trump. Of course, the #NeverTrump movement is still alive. This initiative is led by influential conservatives who think Trump is without principles. They were active this week in subcommittees on party rules, those nobody normally pays attention to. They tried to change the rules for the Convention.

This was the plan: at the moment delegates must vote for the candidate who won in their district, their own opinion does not count. The anti-Trump-camp wanted to turn it into a 'conscience vote': delegates should be able to vote whichever way they want. That way Trump’s position might crumble. But Trump’s stalwarts saw through the intrigue and swiftly put an end to it.

What now? Riots? Chaos? Everything is possible, like as a ' 1976 ' scenario. That also was a year of great internal unrest. The party leadership wanted to nominate president Gerald Ford again, but conservative populism haunted the party. Ronald Reagan tried to depose Ford at the Convention in Kansas City and just failed by a narrow margin.

As was the case in 1976, behind the current division an ideological conflict is hiding. Today’s Reagan, Ted Cruz, will speak at the Convention, while still not openly supporting Trump. Many conservative Republicans see him as their last hope. Perhaps Cruz can become the present day Reagan. Because admittedly Reagan lost at the Convention, yet won the nomination four years later.

Chaos lies in wait

Many Republicans still think of Trump as passer-by, and that his followers will disappear of their own accord. Maybe congressional elections will turn out better than expected in November. And if Trump loses the White House, that's no disaster either. Everything will return to normal even faster after November. Even a chaos at the Convention – riots, anarchy, shouting – suits the elite just fine.

But the next few days in Cleveland Trump has the opportunity to thoroughly reorganize the party. There is a new party platform to vote on, in which Trumps ideas will play a large role.

Opponents barely get the stage. For a whole week Trump will have ample opportunity to give a new impulse to the Trump brand.

Which is desperately needed, because he is by far the unpopular presidential candidate in modern history (Clinton is in second place). But, as ally Newt Gingrich worriedly noted this week, chaos is lurking. "This is all new to him. He is someone who thinks he can cobble together a Convention in a few days."

This article was published in the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad on Saturday, 16 July 2016, page 16-17