As Seen From Afar 06/02/2016

What do the campaigns of America’s Trump and Britain’s Brexit “outers” have in common?

First of all, on this side of the Atlantic, we are inundated with news about both. Not a day goes by without media mentioning yet another shocking Trump statement and more, mostly worried, commentaries and analyses of the effects Trump’s possible presidency could have on us. The same can be said about the upcoming Brexit referendum that will be held this coming 23rd of June, when the British have their say on whether their country should leave the European Union or not. Should the majority opt for “outing”, something their government has promised to do if that is the case, this will have major consequences for both Britain and the other countries in the EU, and to some extent for countries in the Commonwealth like Australia.

Second, the leadership style of both Trump and the strong man behind the out campaigners, UKIP leader Nigel Farage, now joined by the Tories’ former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, is that of the populist “whose often incoherent  and contradictory remarks are provocative and play on the feelings of resentment and contempt, mixed with a touch of fear, hatred and anger.” (Robert Kagan in NRCHandelsblad, May 25, 2016). Both Trump and Farage present themselves as men of the people, and surround themselves with their very personal mix of inflated ego and machismo. This mix also applies to Boris Johnson, who has created a schism in his own party by campaigning for an EU exit against his party’s leader David Cameron’s pro EU stance has been referred to as being “a much nicer version of Donald Trump but the campaign is remarkably similar and about as relevant to the real problems that the public face,” by Ken Clarke, former Conservative Cabinet minister.

That last remark brings me to the final common denominator: very strong nationalism and isolationism. Trump wants to make America great again, Farage wants to have his country be given back to him, and both play into the rising anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiments among their followers. Trump promises to build a wall to keep all illegal and “criminal” Mexicans from entering the country, Farage wants to stop the influx of workers and immigrants from EU countries like Poland and Rumania by leaving the EU, making immigration the focus of the Brexit campaign for the out-campaigners, while the (negative) effects on the economy have become the focus of those who want to remain. Both Trump and the “outers” promise that America and Britain will become economically stronger when left to their own devices.

Britain’s departure from the EU will have economic and social consequences for countries in the EU too, and will undermine the fragile unity within the EU itself, so generally speaking the other EU members do not want Britain to leave. But how about the members of the Commonwealth? Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already urged the British to remain in the EU and now voices in Australia are joining him.

“Perhaps the greatest threat a Brexit poses to Australia is the potential disruption to a relationship with the EU that at last appears to be on a decent footing. Australia’s recently announced free trade negotiations with the EU have been a long time coming.

Were Britain to exit the EU, there might be some sense of schadenfreude on the Right of Australian politics. But the dismay among diplomats and businesspeople would be heard from Canberra to Kakadu.”

Most analysts in Australia are equally unhappy with Trump’s foreign policy. Some, like the  head of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and former chief strategist for the defence department, Peter Jennings, see Trump as a high risk to Australia’s security and say that Trump is part of a bigger phenomenon that Australia should be thinking about:

"There's an emerging isolationism in the Republican party that is a concern. It's worth thinking about it – what do we do if we are in fact facing an inward-looking US that doesn't want to take an interest in Asia-Pacific security?"

Or as Peter Hartcher, the author of the article muses: “These are the questions that Australia has to confront, however discomfiting. In Trump's view of geopolitics as a real estate deal, is Australia prepared to stake its security on his valuation?”

Others Australian commentators see him as initiator of a trade war with China and Mexico, undermining the TTP.  Anna Caldwell mentions the “[ ] Economist Intelligent Unit Report – a global forecasting service linked to the The Economist magazine – [has] this week ranked a Trump presidency as one of the top risks facing the world.”

‘In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the TPP’ the report read.”

At first glance, it seems strange that two campaigns about unrelated issues have so much in common, most obviously that they are against everything, especially the powers that be.  But I’m sure that as the Trump election campaign and the Brexit campaigns continue, we’re bound to hear more voices join in the nationalist chorus across Western countries because, unfortunately, it isn’t only American and British nationalism that is on the rise, but a growing phenomenon fostered by populist by tapping into the growing dissatisfaction with inequality and government in general. Those of us who see it all from afar will now have to keep our fingers crossed until the end of this month for the Brexit referendum and November for the American elections and hope that our British and American friends use their democratic rights well and make sure that the campaigns of the “outers” and Trump were to no avail.

On a brighter note I want to leave you with this ditty which sums up Trump’s foreign policy so very well:

My name is Donald with an unchecked mouth,
I’ll build a great wall – on our borders south.
I’ll ship back home – the rapists and crooks,
And all those who protest – just liberal sooks.
Oh..
To confuse the world – that’s my devious plan,
And notions of dichotomy and isolation – to fan.
So, the rest can starve – and the USA can feast,
To top it off, let’s carpet-bomb – the Middle East.

Commenter

Howe Synnott, Sydney, May 17, 2016, 7:31AM