It’s really too early in the election cycle to pay much attention to polls, and it will be until after the bump from the Democratic Convention levels off in mid=August. However, I consider the poll-based election map by Cook Political worthy of note, because if the shift that took place when Rump Dump Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee.
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.
As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.
With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic – enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <Cook Political>
Thank badness for Rump Dump. If Hillary gets the nomination, we can’t just assume that she will be elected. We’ll have to fight for it. Rump Dump makes a win possible. Any Republican in the White House would transform America into hell on earth.
17 Responses to “The Electoral Map Looks Rump Dumped”
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Very interesting. As you say, it's way too early – the only thing that looks predictable this year is unpredictablility – but interesting. "Any Republican in the White House would transform America into hell on earth." – Now that would be predictable. Excellent analysis.
Gulp. You are correct in your assessment, Tom.
Gulp!!!!
Wow. Just, WOW! This makes me want to go knocking on doors, if I could! There has to be a way to keep the orangutan out of the Oval Office!!! Color me extremely ? of Rump Dump Drumpf!!!
We must vote blue,"No matter who!"
The results of splitting the Dem vote as per the idiotic petition for Bernie to run on athe Green party line would be like giving away the election, a la Ralph friging Nader "beating" Al Gore.
I agree with you,Mitch.
Splitting the Dem vote is the most ludicrous tactic ever and a recipe for defeat. I said so on Care2. This social democrat Canadian Sasquatch chick loves Bernie. To not "vote blue no matter who" is to dishonour Bernie and what he represents.
I agree with you that not voting blue dishonors Bernie, and have been saying so, gently, wherever I can. Maybe I need to be not quite so gentle. Although with the crap I gat back when I am gentle, it may be a lost cause. And on some level they already know they are dishonoring Bernie and don't care.
Kudos to Mitch!
I have been so pisied off at that petition that I can't even type straight!
AMON!!
The number of people who are supporting Trump really amaze me. How can anyone with the ability to think do that?
"Any Republican in the White House would transform America into hell on earth." — I think it would be worse than that! With the reach of the US, all foreign dealings would be affected. The toxic spill over would be disastrous!
Vote blue, no matter who!
Agree!
Thinks are looking up for Hillary, assuming she's the Democratic nominee, but I've seen banana republics with less chaotic elections (if they have them at all, that is) so it's really much too early to tell. It would be nice to see these graphics change in the right direction even more over time, but that's only going to happen if – and I'm repeating myself here for the umpteenth time – all Democrats go out to vote and Vote Blue No Matter Who!
Well said!
Thanks all! Hugs!
I just voted…