I have often said that winning back the House of Representatives in 2014 is very unlikely, and as much as I hope we do, hope alone makes it less likely that we will win it back in future years. So let’s start by seeing how Republicans are holding onto it. It began as a classic bait and switch operation. Republicans took advantage of American voters’ absurd belief that the damage to the economy by the Bush Regime could be undone overnight. Heavily financed by the Koch Brothers, the Chamber of Congress, and other 1% vulture capitalists Republicans campaigned on jobs, promising to bring the economy around. They captured so many state houses and state legislatures that they dominated the redistricting that occurs every ten years. Then they brought out Project Red Map, software developed for the party by vulture capitalists, that can redraw boundaries to virtually guarantee more seats for Republicans in the US House. It was so effective that, in 2012, although 1.4 million more Americans voted for Democratic House candidates, Republicans maintained control by a 234 to 201 margin. Republicans gained control of the House at the state level, and I say again, that’s where we must go to get it back. The Republican bait and switch tactic won’t work anymore, as people under Republican tyranny are developing buyers remorse., and we have an excellent opportunity to take state houses back in 2014.
On our final polls for this election cycle we also looked ahead to the 2014 race for Governor in every state that has one, testing the sitting incumbent against a generic opponent of the opposite party. Here’s what we found, grouped into three different categories:
Folks in a whole lot of trouble:
Many of the Republicans who were swept into office by the wave election of 2010 may have a hard time winning a second term if 2014 doesn’t prove to be another huge year for their party.
In Pennsylvania Tom Corbett trails a generic Democrat 47/37. In Maine Paul LePage trails a hypothetical opponent from the opposite party 49/41. Both of them became unpopular pretty early in their terms and have stayed that way.
Other Republicans who look highly vulnerable next time around are Florida’s Rick Scott who trails a generic Democrats 48/44, and Ohio’s John Kasich who leads a potential foe only 44/43. The good news for these folks at least is that their numbers have been on an upward trajectory during their second year in office- they both trailed by much wider margins at this time a year ago… [emphasis original]
Inserted from <PPP>
Photo credit: electoralvote.com
This polling data is over six months old, and public disaffection for Republicans is growing.
I chose today to write this article, because Ed Schultz just made the same point I have been making all along.
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Democratic Governors is most of the states they snookered in 2010 will go a long way to block Republican class warfare now and stop their plans do deny their right to vote to many Americans in 2016. The battle will be hard, because it will be our voices against an elephant butt-load of money!
18 Responses to “How to Take Back the House”
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God bless Gov'r Mark Dayton in Minnesota – they have raised taxes on the wealthiest in the state and delivered a balanced budget – and mended the mess they found when they got into power. As Ed Schultz says – and TomCat too – politics start locally. I don't know if anyone remembers the shock (certainly over here) a few years ago when the Repuglicons took over local politics in the US – and they started with the School Boards…. we should have learned our lesson already!
Amen, Pat!
Great article, Tom – and very much cause to celebrate. I, too, sense that the mood towards republicans is growing very ugly. People are just plain fed up with these obstructionists. Women and immigrants hate them (how could they not).
It is also encouraging to hear that redistricting is the only thing that has helped them maintain an edge in the House. I would rather it be that than the fact that a lot of people support their hateful and ignorant agenda. Great news that redistricting will not help them this time. I am still angry over the way they gerrymandered Kusinich out of his seat. Enough with these criminals.
I think we need a bill to stop gerrymandering.
Angie, the only places rediistricting will not help them is in the Governor and Federal Senate races, because they are decided by the entire state. It will continue to help them in the US House and state legislatures, because those didtricts are still Gerrymandered and will be until 2020.
Yes, redrawing districts must be in non partisan hands.
The under-handed way Republicans have gained seats – primarily through gerrymandering is appalling to say the least, and yes you're quite right that we must be vigilant at the State level of politics; unfortunately too frequently that is the area that's most neglected – as those repugs know only too well. They will stop at nothing to use every dirty method to achieve their evil agenda!
Quite right (or I guess I should say left), Lee.
I fear the chance of Democrats regaining control of the House (and thus provide a responsible, FUNCTIONING government) will not happen until after the 2020 Census. And then only if we're able to gain control of some key state legislatures and Governor's mansions.
Like Speaker Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local."
Yes. Please see my reply to Angie.
Excellent analysis.
Be sure to listen to the Ed Show.
.
Thanks Jim.
Amen!
I hope we can get rid of that do=nothing majority in the House this time around. We also need to hold onto our Senate seats when those seats come up for a vote.
The lowliest local office is equally important!
Patty, pleas see my rteply to Angie.
While the Democrats went grassroots successfully during the 2012 election and turned out numbers for President Obama, (even the GOP losers acknowledged that strength) the Republican/Teabagger version of grassroots seems to be to line up the state governments under their flag. It worked in 2010 & 2012 but I question whether it will be so effective this time. I think Republican/Teabaggers just may have awakened a sleeping dragon with their war on women and their war on immigration. They have shown in states that they are so anti women in particular. With the electorate being 51% women, that is a whole lot of fire breathing dragon, even if some women are foolish enough to vote for the GOP. I agree with Ed Schultz, Democrats, and any other party hoping to break the Republican/Teabagger stranglehold, is going to have to step in at the state and local level with army boots on. They also though, have to stay strong and get stronger at the federal level too.
Lynn, please see my reply to Angie.
When you are in the majority and don't do anything, like the republicans in the house, people get pissed and vote for the other guy.
Good point, unless they can blame it on us.
Kentucky had a Republican governor, Fletcher, for four years and had severe buyers remorse. Beshear, a democrat won the next election easily. I don't understand why they keep voting for McConnell and Paul when it is obvious a Democrat does a better job for us.
Is KJentucky at the crossroads between ignorance and InsaniTEA?