By all rights, 2014 ought to be a banner year for Republicans. Only once in over one hundred years have the party in the White House gained House seats in a second midterm election. In the Senate, many senior Democrats are retiring, and all the new Democratic Senators, who rode Obama’s coattails to victory in 2008 face reelection. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the 2014 outlook is not good for Republicans.
The 2012 election was supposed to be can’t-miss for the GOP. By historical standards, 2014 is supposed to be a good year, too. Will the Republicans mess everything up again? Right now, they’re figuring out their options.
Republicans are divided over whether to make attacking President Obama the central message of their campaign, The New York Times’ Jeremy W. Peters reports. Republicans figured out in the middle of 2012 that harsh attacks on Obama didn’t work well. Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS showed ads of moms feeling disappointed in Obama instead. Today, a large majority still thinks Obama’s likable. Those who think attacking Obama harshly won’t work also point to 1998, when, for the first time since 1822, the party holding the White House gained seats in the midterm election of the president’s sixth year in office. "I didn’t want to talk about Clinton at all," former Rep. John Linder, who ran the National Republican Congressional Committee at the time, told the Times. Newt Gingrich disagreed. While Gingrich prevailed in the fight over strategy, Republicans did not prevail in the election, and Gingrich ended up losing his speakership. This time, Linder’s advice to Republicans is "Don’t overreach." The trio of bureaucratic scandals don’t directly trace back to Obama.
But if the scandals won’t work, what about a message of healing Americans’ economic pain? That might not sell either. The economy has improved, making that issue less important, Politico’s Ben White reports. Unemployment is down, housing prices are up, the deficit is shrinking. Obama’s job approval ratings on the economy are better than they’ve been since 2009. "The fact is the economy is probably going to look and feel very good next year," Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics told Politico. "The most likely outlook for Obama and the Democrats is pretty good growth and employment rising strongly. If you step back and look at it, it’s a hugely favorable scenario for them."…
Inserted from <The Atlantic Wire>
The best chance Republicans have is for us to get confident and lazy, expecting a rerun of our 2012 success. That MUST not happen. After all, we only need to look to 2010 to see what happens when Democrats get lazy. Republicans have a unique ability to take advantage, whenever Democrats form circular firing squads.
Fortunately we have something else working in our favor. As long as Republicans continue their endless wars on everyone except the 1% and extremist, pseudo-Christian hatemongers, they identify themselves as the problem, not the solution. With lots of dedicated effort, we can take another step toward putting the GOP where the party belong.
19 Responses to “2014 Outlook Not Good for Republicans”
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I certainly hope you're right, but I don't trust the intelligence of the average American voter – I'm taken aback at how stupid mid-America proves itself to be time and time again! One would think that at this point the GOP has made it abundantly clear that it runs on a platform that is racist, anti-women, anti-Union, radically "Christian", pro-corporation, anti-poor and elderly. These beliefs are extreme and either Anti-American, or simply without allegiance to the nation. That they want to allow tax exemptions and less tax to the rich and to large corporations is no secret, and that these major corporations are either not paying taxes at all, +/or are subsidized by the poor and middle class is blatantly obvious, I don't think they can pull the wool over the voters' eyes any longer – but I reiterate the stupid of America will vote against themselves like a dog returns to its vomit!
Sadly, Lee, I feel the same as you about the intelligence and collective memory of American voters.
Lee, I mostly agree but the it worked in 2010, because nobody had seen the differeneces between what they said they would do then and have actually done since.
Herman Cain was a giant – in the world of fast food pizza. He spewed the 9-9-9 plan (which is used in Sim City and has no relationship with reality) and some hate on TV and republicans thought he was the second coming of JC. So, I have high hopes that the carpet baggers, desperately stupid Bible-thumping oppportunists, arrogant failing CEO's with delusions of grandeur, and flat out perverts/creeps that you wouldn't want living next door, will jump on the GOP bandwagon and run in 2016 – all with Koch mega- dollars.
That is my belief and hope.
Oh Lee, I sympathise, and wish it were only the average American voter who falls for election tricks, but they work all over the world – or we wouldn't have a Conservative govt in the UK (forget the Lib Dems trying to moderate things – they are constantly out-manoeuvred and blamed for Tory misdeeds).
I do hope you are right TC about the 2014 election and that the Republicons do fall over their own feet!
Me too, Pat!
Tom, I don't know if it's your pain meds taking over or if you got into some bad catnip – but you could NOT be more wrong. What Real 'Merkuns are focusing on in the upcoming 2014 election (still over a year away) is Benghazi.
Of more correctly pronounced BENGGGHHHAAAZZZIII
Now I know you may think that a …
Falling Unemployment Rate
Improving Consumer Confidence
Rising Home Prices and Equity
Declining Deficit
All of which have lead to an improving Economy and brightening Jobs picture, might be what Real 'Merikuns are wanting Congress to focus on – but you would be WRONG! What we want are more hearings by Darrell Issa (R – Grand Theft Auto & Arson) on BENGGGHHHAAAZZZIII
Perhaps I'm wrong, but the more absurd they get with their Benghazi accusations, especially since THEY were the ones that blocked funding for more embassy security, I think thay are using tkat to waste time, and it wioll blow over, except for use against Hillary in 2016.
I think you're exactly right.
AND, given their history, I think they will once again overreach and shout BENGGGHHHAAAZZZIII over and over and over … totally oblivious to the fact that poll after poll after poll documents the American public DOES NOT CARE.
They just might. Timer will tell.
I'd like to think that the Republican/Teabaggers have dug their own grave and will lie down in it for all eternity. Unfortunately, they have prostituted themselves such that they refuse to represent the people that elected them and are beholden to the "sydicates" of the 1% that bought them off and financed them. Will the sheeple recognise this? Not likely. It is so important to stay on top of things in every district so that as few Republican/Teabaggers as possible are elected in 2014.
Amen Lynn!
Are you familiar with the Green Shadow Cabinet, TC? Methinks <i>that</i> group should register as a political party, and then run for President (and cabinet) in '16. Might give Republican'ts and a few Democrats that subscribe to conservative political philosophy their comeuppance.
I am, Phil. Bads idea. Do you remember how Care2 went ga-ga over Rocky Anderson? He got 0.03% of the vote. Prior to the demise of the GOP, no third party can gain traction, without starting at dog catcher anw working their way up after years of local and state successes.
I sincerely hope the Republicans mess up so badly that they lose, but nothing surprises me. Remember, I live in the state that keeps re electing McConnell. When I ask why did you vote for him they really don't have an answer. He certainly hasn't done anything for Kentucky. Then, of course, there is Rand Paul whose only real mission seems to be to embarrass Kentucky. I tend to agree with Nameless, they will keep on with the Benghazi until they get someone prosecuted. I watched the Sunday morning shows and Issa is determined to knock Obama down.
TC, I loved the cards and Oreo says it is EXACTYL true!
Sadly, Edie, any stare that would elect Rand may be beyond hope. 😉
Sounds like good news to me… 🙂
Lets hope so!