My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to all the Presidential debates. If a candidate is 3% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate. I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 3% or less. I reduced this from 5%, because the election is only two days away. I am also including my final projection, in which I predict all the states, no matter how close. For the toss up states, I relied on the age of the available polls, the reliability of the research companies that conducted them, the methodologies they published, and when all else failed, gut instinct. We’ll see how I did soon.
President:
Even States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
CO
9
47
47
FL
29
48
48
NC
16
46
48
VA
18
47
47
This represents an electoral vote count of 281 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama. . Of the even states Obama leads in none , Romney leads in one (16 votes). Three are tied (56 votes). Overall this is a significant improvement for Obama.
The Senate:
Even Senate
MT
Tester – D
48
Rehberg – R
47
ND
Heitkamp – D
48
Berg – R
48
VA
Kaine – D
46
Allen – R
45
WI
Baldwin -D
46
Thompson -R
45
The current tally is:
Democrats: 50
Republicans: 45
Independent: 2
Undecided: 4
Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in 2 states, Republicans in 1 state. 1 state is tied.
This is a significant improvement for Democrats.
Map credit: 270 to Win
Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com
In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.
I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.
It now appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and that Democrats will hold the Senate.
Here are my final projections, with all states called.
President:
I expect Obama to win 303 to 235
The Senate:
I expect that the new Senate will include 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents.
Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours. The two things I cannot factor in are voter disenfranchisement, and Republican election theft crimes.
I don’t know if I can holds out, but on election night I intend to live blog, updating maps as results come in.
23 Responses to “Election Projection–11/4/2012”
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I also believe Obama will win It looks like we keep the senate. It is the house I want to see how it plays out Millions were spent on keeping the the same ones who did nothing to help the American people. Will it be money or the vote them out?
I think up until Tuesday night I will be on pins and needles. I will be here on the internet off and on but i will be watching the election as it unfolds 24/7.
Thanks Tom see ya on election night Obama/Biden 2012
I see our first shot at taking the House in 2014.
TC. Thank you for this. I will worry until the election is called. I believe that Mittens and his co-horts will do anything and everything to disrupt and/or win this election, would not put anything past the repukes/baggers. They used to be just a pain in the a$$ but now they are just plain evil.
You will have a lot of company in the worry room.
I could not have said it better.
I agree with you about Colorado. As in Nevada, the polls probably under-state Democratic support due to under-polling of Hispanics (most pollsters don't do polls in Spanish).
Actually a lot of the party ID shift from Republican to independent consists of teabaggers who no longer identify as Republican. That accounts for why many polls show Romney with a big edge among independents even while losing with the overall electorate — because a big chunk of independents are people who have left the Republican party rightward, as far as self-identification is concerned.
I think your analysis is spot on.
I agree, although some of the shift from Republican to Independent arew more moderate Republicans, who are appalled at what their party has become.
I have real hope- but having a streak of pessimism– –It aint over til its over——Then I think I might even drink!!!! 2 wine coolers oughta do it!!!
Enjoy!
Friday's "New York Times" had a fun interactive post titled "512 Paths to the White House" with what must be every reasonable combination and permutation of how it plays out WRT different outcomes for the Battleground states.
What a web!
The first hurdle is election night! But until all is said and done, I'll find it hard to breathe! Although not watching in 2000 like I have this year, I do remember the SCOTUS shenanigans in determining the election outcome, and my disappointment at Bush winning. There really MUST be election reform to make all federal elections come under the same rules. People in one state should not be disadvantaged by their state rules over people in other states. That is just plain wrong!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Re-elect Barak Obama 2012!!!!!
I fully agree!
This doesn't take into account the rampant Republican election fraud.
Robert, in case you missed it, I said the same thing in the next to last line of the article.
I have to tell you that the Canadian news was all awash with US election predictions and commentary this evening when I took my mother out for dinner. The table behind me , another elderly mother & daughter were abuzz with the election too. A lot of citizens here very obviously in favour of Mr Obama, even to the point of having Obama/Biden bumperstickers. One person even said that he had heard that if Romney wins the markets will go into a slump. I have no idea where he heard or of the veracity so I wouldn't put any stock in it (pun intended), but personally, I might have thought the opposite. Hey but what do I know, I'm a banker, not a trader.
Did you know that old bankers never die? They just lose interest! (chorkle! chorkle!)
ARGH!
I don't think the market would go down, but I do think he would crash the economy worse than 2008.
I remain cautiously optimistic.
May caution decrease and optimism increase!
To the Republican named Joan, who commented opposition to Obama. You are welcome to express your point of view here, but not under a dishonest email address.
Since my point of view is obviously the normal, right point of view, either my candidate will win, or there must be tremendous amount of corruption and cheating.
Obviously.
We'll see what happens.
That does not alter the fact documented irregularities are almost exclusively one-sided.