My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to the second Presidential debate, but not the third. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate. I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 5% or less. These numbers are always subject to change. Nest week I will lower that to 3%, because the elections are so close.
President:
Even States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
AZ
11
44
48
CO
9
48
46
FL
29
47
48
IA
16
49
48
NC
15
48
48
NH
4
49
47
NV
6
50
47
OH
18
48
46
VA
13
48
47
This represents an electoral vote count of 247 to 180 in favor of Barack Obama. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have changed from undecided to Obama. Of the even states Obama leads in six (68 votes), Romney leads in two (40 votes). One is tied (15 votes). Overall this is a significant improvement for Obama.
The Senate:
Even Senate
AZ
Carmona – D
45
Flake – R
42
CT
Murphy -D
47
McMahon – R
44
IN
Donnelly -D
45
Mourdock – R
44
MT
Tester – D
47
Rehberg – R
45
ND
Heitkamp – D
48
Berg – R
49
NE
Kerrey – D
46
Fischer – R
48
NV
Berkley – D
45
Heller – R
46
TN
Clayton – D
48
Corker – R
51
vA
Kaine
46
Allen
45
WI
Baldwin – D
48
Thompson – R
46
The current tally is:
Democrats: 45
Republicans: 44
Independent: 2
Undecided: 10
Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in 6 states, Republicans in 4 states.
This is a slight improvement for Republicans.
Map credit: 270 to Win
Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com
In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.
I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.
It now appears more likely that Obama will win the Presidency than it did last week, and still likely that Democrats will hold the Senate. I spoke in error last week when I said this would be the last report. I shall make one final projection next Sunday.
Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.
Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.
15 Responses to “Election Projection–10/28/2012”
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Senator Bernie Sanders is from my home state and Angus King (ME) is someone who I voted for when I lived in Maine….
I guess that makes you blessed.
How come you NEVER include Missouri in your Senate tabulations?
Sadly, it's going to be tight – but I hope Claire McCaskill can prevent Todd Akin from becoming our Senator!
Nameless, that's my bad. I neglected to color it blue, as McCaskill leads by over 5%. I corrected it on the map.
I don't believe polls because they Always ask leading questions, they don't like Independent Answers & they never ask the Real Questions that we Want answered! I do think Democrats Should win & that Some races will be tight simply because the Democratic Party is not using its money as effectively as it could. Getting out the vote is the MOST important thing because there would be NO RepubliCON wins if ALL Democrats VOTED!!!
Yvonne, that is true of some polls, but not all. I spent several years in opinion research, so I can look at a poll and see if it has internal bias.
I havent paid real attention to polls since Dewey won– beat the hell out of that hillbilly Truman—-Mom voted for Truman and Dad voted for Dewey— they never did agree-
But Dad taught me how polls lie!!
LOL! That was before my time.
Gee TC I was a pretty young Chick myself—lol– was weaned on politics–lol
Before I could wean myself on politics, which I did early on, I had to be born first. 🙄
The only poll that really matters is the poll in the voting booth!
Get out the vote!!!!!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!
So very true, Lynn!
Get out and vote! Take someone with you!
Vote Obama/Biden next Tuesday, November 6, 2012 .
Vote for Democrat whenever you can. Clean up the Senate and the House!
That is the one that counts.
Willard Mitt Romney (WMR) is a danger to America! While he may have strong family and moral values…he had to prostitute himself to the radical right to get the GOP nomination. Now he is trying to move to the center to win the election, However if elected, he is still beholden and will follow the direction of the evil axis created through cross-pollination of radical right Religious Extremists, Tea Partiers, Birchers, their “Funding Fathers”, the Koch brothers as well as LDS elders and members who have infiltrated the membership and philosophy of all of the foregoing and who consider Mitt Romney to be the one who if elected will fulfill the "White Horse Prophecy." A divine utterance made by founder Joseph Smith and reinforced by every Mormon prophet since, predicting that the United States will be facing great economic and social unrest, and a Mormon will be elected President who will, declare a national emergency, set aside the Constitution and enact a Mormon theocracy. That may sound impossible, but ever since he was at BYU, Romney has been called by his inner circle “the chosen one” to fulfill their cult’s prophecy. On the basis of the prophecy, that Mormons expect the US to eventually become a "Mormon-ruled theocracy divinely ordained to not only direct the political affairs of the Mormon community, but also those of the United States and ultimately the world!". WMR says he does not believe he is the “Chosen One “ who will fulfill the prophecy, but it is evident that many of the LDS ruling class do believe and will bring unbelievable pressure to bear upon WMR if he is elected President. At the worst WMR’s election will threaten the well-being and survival of American and the rest of the world. It may be the beginning of the end of western civilization as we know it. At the very least, expect a return to the glory days of belligerence, insults, go-it-alone, bloated military budgets, unnecessary and costly wars justified by lies about non-existent dangers.
Welcome George. 🙂
Politically, I think you are spot-on about Lord Willard. Religiously, I don't know enough about the inner workings of Mormonism to comment. However, the rapidity with which Republican Supply-side pseudo-Christians have dropped Mormonism from their list of cults to hate boggles the mind.