Election Projection–10/21/2012

Last week, I noted that my projections did account for public reactions to the first Presidential debate. My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do not reflect public reaction to the second Presidential debate, so  the picture they now paint is incomplete with few changes.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 5% or less. Especially because the most recent polls do not reflect public reactions to the second Presidential debate, these numbers are also subject to change.

President:

Even States
State	EV	Obama	Romney
AZ	11	44	48
CO	9	50	47
FL	29	47	47
IA	16	49	47
NC	15	47	49
NH	4	48	48
NV	6	49	46
OH	18	47	44
PA	20	49	45
VA	13	48	48
WI	10	50	47

This represents an electoral vote count of 221 to 180 in favor of Barack Obama. Michigan has changed from undecided to Obama, but Pennsylvania has changed from Obama to undecided, and Arizona has changed from Romney to undecided.  Of the even states Obama leads in xix (73 votes), Romney leads in two (26 votes).  Three are tied (46 votes).  Overall this is a very slight improvement for Obama.

The Senate:

Even Senate
AZ	Carmona – D	45
	Flake – R	42
CT	Murphy -D	46
	McMahon – R	42
IN	Donnelly -D	40
	Mourdock – R	38
MT	Tester – D	46
	Rehberg – R	44
ND	Heitkamp – D	47
	Berg – R	47
NV	Berkley – D	40
	Heller – R	44
TN	Clayton – D	48
	Corker – R	51
WI	Baldwin – D	47
	Thompson – R	46

The current tally is:

Democrats: 48

Republicans: 42

Independent: 2

Undecided: 8

Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in five states, Republicans in two, and one tied.

This is a significant improvement for Democrats.

Map credit: 270 to Win

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.

It still appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and more likely that Democrats will hold the Senate, I expect Democratic gains by next week’s report, which, of course will be my last of 2012

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.