Last week, I warned that my projections did not take public reactions to either nthe first Presidential debate or the improved unemployment rate into account. My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do and they paint a picture far less positive than last week’s. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate. Especially because the most recent polls do not reflect public reactions to the Vice Presidential debate, these numbers are also subject to change.
President:
Even States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
CO
9
47
47
FL
29
47
48
MI
16
48
45
NC
15
47
48
NH
4
46
50
NV
6
48
46
OH
18
48
45
VA
13
49
47
WI
10
50
47
This represents an electoral vote count of 227 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama. States with a combined electoral total of 63 votes, that Obama led by 5% or more one week ago, are now in doubt. Of the even states Obama leads in five (64 votes), Romney leads in three (40 votes). One is tied (9 votes)
The Senate:
Even Senate
AZ
Carmona – D
43
Flake – R
43
CT
Murphy -D
48
McMahon – R
45
IN
Donnelly -D
40
Mourdock – R
38
MA
Warren – D
48
Brown – R
46
MT
Tester – D
45
Rehberg – R
43
ND
Heitkamp – D
47
Berg – R
47
NV
Berkley – D
41
Heller – R
44
TN
Clayton – D
48
Corker – R
51
VA
Kaine – D
48
Allen – R
45
The current tally is:
Democrats: 46
Republicans: 43
Independent: 2
Undecided: 9
Of the even races, Democrats lead in six states, Republicans in one, and six are tied.
Map credit: 270 to Win
Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com
In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.
I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.
It still appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and Democrats will hold the Senate, but the races are closer than the done deal they appeared to be a week ago.
Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.
Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.
15 Responses to “Election Projection–10/14/2012”
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Vote Democrat!
Obama/Biden in November 2012
Give them a Senate and a House of Representatives that work with them and not against this country!
I agree 100% — the only way to get past the mess of Republican obstruction!
What Phyllis said!
Straight Democratic ticket for me, Obama/Biden 2012
Ditto that!
I will never vote republican – never. All the Dems have my vote.
But now I am worried. I hope Obama wins easily to send the Koch brothers a message that is unmistakably loud and clear.
I have voted for Republicans in the past, but I would never vote for what they have become.
I admire the work you do with the polls, but they make me anxious – so anymore I've taken to just heading to Nate Silver's 538 site and let him filter them all for me. I've found that to be much more relaxing (and a time-saver.to boot).
I like Nate too, Nameless, but I like to be more doen in the weeds, given my background in opinion research. Our results are actually quite similar, the difference being that he calls the close races, while I leave them undecided.
I hope your results are the right ones. We need more Democrats in the House and Senate if we are ever to get this country back on the right track.
Actually, I hope last week's results are more accurate.
On the radio news this afternoon, I heard a lot of rukus and the newscaster said it was the Democratic team getting things done and getting hyped (next debate prep) as they chowed down on pizza. While the question at the beginning of the short piece was " Which Obama will we see?" the eventual response was an aggressive, 'take no prisoners' Obama. I hope so! I hope that Mr Obama took notes from Joe Biden!
Up, then down, then up again. It is a rollercoaster! I hate rollercoasters because, hey, I toss my cookies in the car with motion sickness! But the only poll that really counts is on 06/11/2012! It is so important that everyone weigh their options because once the vote is in, there is no going back.
I noticed, like everyone else I'm sure, that the Republican/Teabaggers are trying to take political advantage of the Benghazi incident. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on Face the Nation I believe, accused Mr Obama of a coverup. Chris Stevens' father has lambasted the Romney campaign for using his son and his death for political purposes. Of course that kind of chicanery is their forté and a request from the family will never stop the Republican/Teabaggers because they will do ANYTHING, illegal, immoral, doesn't matter, just to win the election. And this is evidence of leadership abilities? I think it is evidence of depravity!
I came across an article in Truthout called "Advocate: New Constitutional Amendment Needed to protect the Right to Vote" and posted it to Care2 at http://www.care2.com/news/member/775377582/3469355 . (Alsohttp://truth-out.org/news/item/12093-advocate-new-constitutional-amendment-needed-to-protect-the-right-to-vote ). It is an interesting article and well worth the read.
Get out the vote!!!!!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!
Wow! You predicted my lead article, today, but I did not know about his son. Feel free to use this great link on a comment on that article too
eems I have done that a number of times over the past year. Must be pussy cat telepathy!
And purrrfectly done!