Like the last two weeks, here is my 2012 election map with my projections. Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic. I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article.
Map credit: 270 to Win
I moved Wisconsin back into the blue column, because Obama now leads by over 5%. I also moved Virginia into the blue column for the same reason. That makes the electoral vote count 260 for Obama and 191 for Romney, so Obama needs 10 more to win, barring changes, of course.
There are seven states too close to call, the two states I moves, and the latest poll averages. I did make an adjustment to my calculations. Ever since I was in opinion research I have thought that Rasmussen skews their results by using unrealistic populations. I had hoped I could avoid doing this, because calculating the averages myself is a lot more work, but Rasmussen’s results deviate so far from most other polls in many states, that I removed them. Other polls, whether liberal or conservative in their orientation, usually yielded results within a standard deviation of each other.
Swing States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
CO
9
48.5
45.7
FL
29
48
46.5
IA
6
48.5
43.5
NV
6
48.7
46
NH
4
46.5
43.5
NC
15
47
47.8
OH
18
49.2
44.4
VA
13
49.7
44.6
WI
10
51.8
43.8
Polling data credit: Real Clear Politics
The remainder of this article remains unchanged from last week.
While I still consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency. There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.
Now, if I could I would change the system in two ways. I would do away with the Electoral College and make the vote for President a national populate vote. That would eliminate all the economic benefits of the election going to a few swing states. It would also end the imbalance that makes a vote in Wyoming count over twice what a vote in California does. Second, I would place plurality rile with true majority rule with preference voting in all elections. Voters would cast ballots with their first second and third choice candidates. If counting everyone’s first choice does not produce a majority the ballots would be recounted, substituting the highest choice that made the top two for all voters whose first choice did not. In that way we get true majority rule without stigmatizing third parties.
Every Vote Matters…
Especially Yours!
17 Responses to “Election Projection–9/23”
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PEW Research seems to agree with you.
Obama Leads Romney in Latest Poll
19 September 2012 With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Barack Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.
Let's not get over-confident though.
Vote Obama/Biden in November 2012!
Thanks Patty.
We take nothing for granted… Obama-Biden 2012
Do so agree– It ain't over til its over—only then can we rest– So message remains — VOTE and help others vote.
The most important vote is yours!
I'm still not voting for "O" – if I lived in a State that wasn't categorically Dem and my vote made a difference I would vote for him, but fortunately (or not) I'm voting my conscience and Dr. Stein will get my vote this year! I may work for Obama before November – he's a big let down, and still under "corporate control" – but the SCOTUS is at stake and the advances he's made for women and gays is almost worthy of a vote.
Lee, I hear what you're saying, but have you considered that people may follow your example in places where it doers matter?
Let's not blow this. Bottom Line – especially for our down-ticket Democrats:
Amen, Nameless!
In my state of SC, the debate is by how little Obama will lose by. Usually, GOP takes it by double digits, but only by 9 in 2008. I'm predicting it will only be a 7-point loss for Dems this year.
My condolences, Rob!
To paraphrase John Paul Jones "We have not yet begun to fight!"
Get out the vote!!!!!
Don't be complacent!!!!!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!
Amen Lynn!
There are a number of good Poll places available, but one that's kind of fun offers a "Rasmussen Free Map"
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep24-noras.html
Thanks Nameless. I subscribe to that site. Their maps cannot be customized and they do not show states with <5% difference as tossups, but I forgot they have Rasmussen-free stats available. That will savfe me a lot of work!
I completely agree, Tom, especially with doing away with the electoral college. Also, until we can get the rest of the country to adopt Oregon's vote-by-mail system, which I talk up at every opportunity (as well as creating opportunities where they don't already exist,) make election day a mandatory Federal holiday. For those who must stay on the job, like emergency responders, public utilities, hospital staffers, etc. an appropriate amount of time off during the day -with pay- to vote.
John, I have preached Oregon's system for years, so I fully agree!