Like last week, here is my 2012 election map with my projections. Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic. I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article.
Map credit: 270 to Win
I moved Wisconsin out of the blue column and put it back in the toss-up states, because Ryan’s activity there has moved the race closer than it was last week. That makes the electoral vote count 237 for Obama and 191 for Romney, so Obama needs 33 more to win.
There are nine states too close to call, and here are the latest poll averages.
Toss-up States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
CO
9
48.3
45.3
FL
29
47.8
46.5
IA
6
45
44.8
NV
6
49
45.7
NH
4
47.3
43.3
NC
15
45
49.8
OH
18
48.5
44.3
VA
13
47.3
47
WI
10
48.2
46.8
Polling data credit: Real Clear Politics
Obama increased his lead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. Romney increased his lead in North Carolina and decreased Obama’s lead in Virginia and Wisconsin. Iowa and Nevada were unchanged.
While I still consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency. There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.
Now, if I could I would change the system in two ways. I would do away with the Electoral College and make the vote for President a national populate vote. That would eliminate all the economic benefits of the election going to a few swing states. It would also end the imbalance that makes a vote in Wyoming count over twice what a vote in California does. Second, I would place plurality rile with true majority rule with preference voting in all elections. Voters would cast ballots with their first second and third choice candidates. If counting everyone’s first choice does not produce a majority the ballots would be recounted, substituting the highest choice that made the top two for all voters whose first choice did not. In that way we get true majority rule without stigmatizing third parties.
Especially YOURS!
18 Responses to “Election Projection–9/16/2012”
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"Obama increased his lead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. While I still consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency. "
I gave money to the DNC today and my wife and I are going out tomorrow for door to door…
Good for you, Richard!!
TC– It aint over till its over– all the more reason to get out and VOTE!!!! talk after- but VOTE–
I think you are very right about a redo for how votes are weighed- this is not a new issue– but it is past time to do instead of suggest or support an idea— I have voted in every election since my first time- for Ike– and the electoral college has been a problem since before that– the Gore debacle should have done it–
S
I agree on both counts.
Another donation today for Obama. I want to have dinner with him! Missed out on George Clooney. That would have been cool since I consider him to be one of the smartest men in film. I used to think Clint Eastwood was smart. Now, the poor old dude is simply senile.
I'm also looking at the Senate races. We've sent quite a bit to Liz Warren. I'm happy to see she's ahead in the polls at this moment.
The Senate is extremely important, so I'd encourage people to look to their State races and, if your state isn't up for the Senate (as Oregon is), then pick another Dem to support in another state where it might help.
The House is a lost cause, but try to keep your Democratic legislators in office. While I don't think Robinson has a chance against DeFazio, Pete will be getting an October donation from us.
And, since Tom gives me some spam leeway, I'd like to mention that my Oregon-based murder mystery is now out in print. Anybody buys a print copy will get an ebook copy free. All they have to do is show me the Amazon receipt. The book is also in the buy 3, get 1 free program. If you're at all interested, my website is listed at the top of this message.
If you have that dinner say hi for TC!!
People, I recommend Marva highly. Click here for Marva's site.
A poll on CNN this week showed that if Obama won either Ohio or Florida he would win the race. Hopefully the senior citizens in Florida will want to protect their Social Security and Medicare enough to vote for Obama.
I would certainly hope so!
Over turn Citizens United and reform the electoral process! Has a nice ring to me! I would like to see the reform of Canada's electoral process too in order to prevent another Harper debacle. Four years of Harper and his harlots on a 39.6% popular vote. Now there is another "space for rent!" but in a different way. Here, we don't even vote for the PM — he is elected by his constituency, and as leader of his party, automatically becomes PM if his party wins. Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Doesn't the Parliamentary system prevent gridlock?
Sort of . . . if the government party has a majority, then they usually vote along party lines, especially with Harper around dictating the terms. If there is a minority government, a vote of 'non confidence' can topple the government providing that the opposition can muster enough votes. If some of the opposition decides to vote with the government, then the non confidence fails and the government is off the hook. It can be an even split, but I think they go back to jaw flapping to break the split. Some of Harper's minority governments were brought down by non confidence votes.
Thanks! IC!
Almost forgot . . .
Get out the vote!!!!!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!
DO!
I'm hoping that our RepublicanT congressman gets defeated this year. There hacve been a lot of negative letters to the editor of our local paper written about his voting record. He says he's a moderate but has voted his party line of NO all the way so far. Now if people will pay attention, we can get rid of him.
Good lick with that!. In RepubliSpeak a moderate is someone slightly to the right of Hitler. 😉
I have been donating what I can to Democratic candidates particularly House races where it is close. If we could gain control of the House and keep control of the Senate then hopefully, something concrete might happen in DC. The swing states are critically important. Gov Scott of Florida has been trying to disenfranchise voters for a while and I try to stay informed on his antics. I have high hopes that Obama is reelected. Not because he is so good but Romney is just so bad. I do hope in the future that we can get rid of the electoral college, we Americans are educumated now and we can read so our vote should count.
Welcome Janet! 🙂
Thank you for what you are doing, and I agree,