As polls make Obama’s advantage more clear each day, Republicans leaders are desperate for a way to make people believe that it just isn’t so. To achieve that end, they have concocted an idiotic conspiracy theory that the poll results are “voter suppression” by Democrats in cahoots with the media. Before going into this in more detail and explaining why it could not possibly be true, here is an explanation from the intellectual cream of the Republican Party.
If you listen to right-wing pundits, the entire political science establishment, in cahoots with mainstream media, are circling their wagons around their favored candidate, and obscuring either the inevitability of his failure or a more sinister outcome behind a font of false information. The current polling numbers that show President Barack Obama pulling ahead of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney are cooked, they say.
It’s a laughable premise, of course — the media are hardly kind to liberals or Democrats — but this is no random theory dreamed up by an unhinged wingnut. It’s a carefully crafted narrative, and one that may hold the only hope Republicans have of winning the 2012 presidential race. Why? Because with an increasingly shrinking slice of the electorate undecided on its presidential candidate, the outcome of election 2012 will likely hinge almost entirely on which candidate gets to the polls all the voters who lean his way. Polls that depress the spirits of right-wing voters could easily depress their turnout, as well…
…In the alternate universe occupied by the right, there’s a dark conspiracy afoot — one in which the steadfast conservative exists in an undulating world that conspires to confound him with unwelcome information: his big car is melting the polar ice caps, women are bringing home the bacon and, four years ago, a black man won the presidency, fair and square. Information that so disturbs challenges his comfort level must surely be wrong…
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Republicans point to the demographics, noting that this year’s polls use a higher percentage of Democrats and lower percentage of Republicans than they did four years ago. The conspiracy theory hinges on the notion that the media, who sponsor the polls, changed those demographic percentages intentionally to produce skewed results.
However, there is an alternate explanation that also happens to be true. Polls depend on self-identification of voters. Because the Republican party has moved so far to the extreme right, many former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and many former Independents now self-identify as Democrats. In short, the polls reflect more Democrats and fewer Republicans than there were four years ago, because there are more Democrats and fewer Republicans than there were four years ago.
Finally, the reason the Republican conspiracy theory could not be true is that skewing the results is directly against the self-interest of the media. The media want a close race. The closer the race, the more people will pay attention and soak up media ads, generating more revenue for the media. After all, generating revenue is the be all and end all for the media.
So, is it skewed polls or warped minds? The answer is obvious.