For the last couple of weeks the race between Republicans to win the Iowa caucuses has dominated the news. Millions od dollars have been spent. Pundits have agonized over the unpredictability of the race, and it’s impossible to turn on news without seeing a talking head drone on about the subject. So I asked myself if the Iowa Caucuses are important enough to justify all the attention.
Here are the latest standings, according to the Chicago Sun Times.
24 percent Mitt Romney
22 percent Ron Paul
15 percent Rick Santorum
12 percent Newt Gingrich
11 percent Rick Perry
7 percent Michele Bachmann
The Republican Party is not really representative of Iowa. Obama won the state by a 10 point margin.
In addition, the Iowa caucuses are not really representative of Iowa Republicans. Only the most dedicated activists attend. According to the New York Times, the 2008 caucuses set an attendance record, but attracted only 118,192 voters.
Now, let’s assume that both that they equal their record, and that one of the above losers wins 51% of the vote, absurd though that may be. 51% of 118,192 votes equals 60,278 votes for the winner.
Moving along, I live in Portland OR, home of 583,876 people. 60,278 would represent 10.3% od Portland’s population. If I were to say to you, “10.3% of Portlanders like Mitt Romney,” you might say, “So what?”
Lets look at this another way. There are approximately 169,000,000 registered voters in the US. 60,278 would represent .036%. That’s 3.6 one hundredths of one percent, an insignificant number. Seen in that light the Iowa caucuses hardly matter at all.
What we have been experiencing here is pure media hype, and it gives a small handful of activists a lot more influence than they warrant.
21 Responses to “How Important Are the Iowa Caucuses?”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Interesting. I was looking at this very thing this afternoon I think on Huffington Post. Here are 4 links (sorry TC, I know it will go to moderation). Unfortunately I can’t find the others.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/02/iowa-poll-paul-romney-santorum_n_1179412.html?ref=canada&ir=Canada
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/02/iowa-caucus-2012_n_1180095.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-fineman/george-w-bush-election-2012_b_1179655.html?ref=canada
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120103/us-iowa-caucus-history/
In one of the stories, it was said that a peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter wanted to boost his visibility so the Iowa Democratic caucus was moved up to be the first one. He went on to become POTUS. In another part, the article went on to show some who won Iowa and then fell flat on their faces, destined not to go any further (I think Mitt Romney was one of those a few years ago as was Huckabee) and others that lost in Iowa yet did well later. Overall, it didn’t seem to matter what happened in Iowa, as much as what the candidates stood for and represented, which I think is the way it should be. One reporter even commented that it was more about media making the hype over Iowa than the candidates.
It seems that Iowa is primarily a way to narrow the field of candidates. And as you pointed out TC, the numbers certainly show it as nothing more than a drop in a bucket.
Rick “Big Gaffer” Perry is at it again referring to an Alaska bridge to nowhere as an Arizona bridge to nowhere. Like usual he can’t keep his facts straight, not a good sign for a potential POTUS. He may not make it out of Iowa.
Some of this stuff, the infighting and dirty tricks, the he said/she said crap — and parents wonder why their kids grow up combative? It’s because they watch adult politicians getting away with uncivilised behaviour.
Anyway, it was a good afternoon distraction from the university books.
Gad zooks! as I sit here waiting for my computer to finish refreshing so I can copy my comments over to Care2, I suddenly realised that I am staring at the picture of the 3 amigos, Romney, Paul and Santorum, with their percentages below them and I thought they looked a lot like a series of police photos. Criminals all, throw them in the clink!
It’s no problem for me Lynn. It just makes your comment invisible until I see and release it, which I do and blank the targets.
Interesting stuff, but I’d rather the field be narrowed in an more representative location.
wake me when it’s over
WAKE UP!!
” So I asked myself if the Iowa Caucuses are important enough to justify all the attention.” Tom I knew I loved you!! ROFLOL–
I have been so annoyed with all the foolishness and hype– ‘ sound and fury signifying nothing”– Turn on the telly and here are all these so important ‘ experts’ — pointing at graphs and charts– speaking oh so very seriously– and I have scratched myself and wondered whatever they were drinking !! But then I thought ‘ well now –‘who am I , just a little , overweight ole lady , to speak with disdain.. these wise men and wiser women must have access to sources of wisdom not available to old folk like me– After all look at all the money they are paid to access and pontificate , to provide us plain folk the advice and insights they have accumulated … perhaps I should be grateful for all they share , in their oh so serious manner-‘ ? — I wring my hands and wonder what makes me question what they are preaching– They must be right– ? The future of this country — nay the world – depends on how these small and statistically insignificant groups of learned plow pushers decide to cast their votes!?
Oh what joy I felt when someone– A real person!! With respected opinions — comes to the same conclusions This old lady has– ! Lots of hogwash being spewed out into the air!! Yes Lee– wake me when its over — I will go back to watching more meaningful things , such as watching the lake start freezing over–
What can I say Phyllis. great minds fall in the same ditch. 😉
You nailed it, TomCat! It’s just pure media hype designed to give the worthless MSM pundits something more to babble on about. The rest of us, the sane ones, don’t care in the least about it.
Thanks, Jack!
Meanwhile, Iowa rejoices in the money that those political campaigns and national media are spending in its borders.
Excellent point, Rob. By the time it’s Oregon’s turn, it’s always in the bag, so we never get any of those benefits.
Seems it’s pretty much agreed that the Iowa caucus ONLY serves to winnow some of the loons from the herd. I predict Perry and Bachmann, if they continue at all (Perry has money; Bachmann’s got guano for brains), will focus entirely on South Carolina – where the loons are even more plentiful.
I wonder if we can gauge any “Enthusiasm Factor” (read: not-so veiled racism) of wanting to make Pres. Obama a one-termer by caucus turnout? There were a little over 119,000 loons who voted in the 2008 caucus – and this one has been hyped ad nauseum, and it’s good weather for January – so if they don’t get substantially more than 130,000 to vote, I’ll be less concerned about the repubican “Enthusiasm Factor” come November.
Nameless, I have no doubt about it. Even here in Oregon, I have heard Republicans in a doctor’s waiting room call Obama “uppity”.
I’m with Lee. Wake me when it’s over. The only thing more boring than watching an inconclusive and non-consequential event like this is watching mold grow. And it’s just as irritating.
I woke Lee up, so he can wake you up. 😉
I personally am glad the media stays in the faces of the Republian candidates. Why I do not think any of them can beat Obama. It is fun and entertaining and to watch. Newt and his tears. Now calling Romney a liar. When he was one of the ones agreed that having pac money was a good idea. And now calling foul. Romney saying he going to win. Santorum saying he would go to war. I am looking forward to see who gets in the top 3. Huntsman thhink he will get into 1rst in New Hampshire. Will be getting special coverage. Perry and Cain will be out and about doing interviews. Between MSNBC and CNN I’ll be watching. Is it important? WEll Ob thinks so with all the crap they are saying about him,well they will be and set u there owm fun fill night. There will be a video Obama will doing. Will it matter in the end. Maybe but it will be interesting.
Mama, I want the media in their faces to. I just want it ti be in a more representative venue.
For some reason, I have the song “Send in the Clowns” stuck in my head. Seems somehow appropriate.
Look on the bright side. Every penny these idiots spend trashing each other is a penny one of them will have to try and replace for the general election.
Good thought– hold it while we watch even more money being poured down the rathole– think about it tho– money= jobs for venders
Hey! It a republican jobs program.
Excellent thought, John.