Polls that have Barrack Obama in a dead heat with potential Republican opponents has many supporters deeply worried. However, several years in the public opinion business taught me that polls are meaningless until the last six months before an election, and only slightly meaningful until the last couple weeks. However there is an American University professor who has developed a prediction method he calls the 13 Keys, and Allan Lichtman has used it to accurately predict the outcome of every Presidential election since 1984. He has never missed.
…The college professor developed his system back in 1981 and published the rather basic formula in his book, The Keys to the White House. Basically, the "keys" test the recent performance of the party that is currently in the White House; according to US News, if six or more of them go against the party in power, then the opposing party can start picking out the bands they want at the inaugural ball.
"The keys have figured into popular politics a bit," Lichtman says. "They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to."
Here’s a brief rundown of how Lichtman scores Obama on the 13 criteria:
1) Incumbent party picks up seats in preceding mid-term. Point Republicans.
2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination. Point Obama.
3) The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Point Obama.
4) There is no significant third party challenger. Point Obama.
5) The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Push (Lichtman declares this one “undecided.”)
6) Real per capita economic growth during the past term is at least equal to mean growth during the previous two terms. Point Republicans.
7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes. Point Obama.
8) There is no sustained social unrest during the previous term. Point Obama.
9) The incumbent administration has no major scandals. Point Obama.
10) The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. Point Obama.
11) The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. Point Obama.
12) The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. Point Republicans.
13) The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Point Obama.
Final score (again, we stress, on Lichtman’s scorecard): 9-3-1, Obama wins… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <Slate>
I highlighted four of the keys because I question Lichtman’s analysis of them. I don’t see much improvement in the ecomomy, because of Republican obstruction. Social unrest is growing, based on the increase of hate crimes inspired by Republican rhetoric. Afghanistan is a military failure. To be sure, it’s Bush’s failure, but Obama assumed ownership of it when he opted to keep it going. The twelfth should be point Obama, because he is certainly charismatic. So by my reckoning, the score is 8-5. Obama wins.
Lawrence O’Donnell interviewed Professor Lichtman.
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I hope he keeps his perfect record.
22 Responses to “13 Keys Predict an Obama Win”
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There was such high hopes but sadly no matter who wins this is going to devolve to an election between the lesser of two evils again. When was the last time a sitting president was ordered about like a house servant by the leader of the house, dictated to about not only when they will meet but if they will meet? (Remember before the golf summit how many “invitations Mr 10 Million dollar Boehner refused to meet with the president and then walking out?) It will be interesting to see his ratings against your holy ellipsoid orb opening? So which will you watch live and which will you record Tom?
Why didn’t Mr.I have no testosterone just go to the lincoln center give tickets to Americans and do his speech on jobs on the 7th…did he think the only audience that matters would not have attended? He doesn’t need to be in the Boehners ass to get in his face. And furthermore what does Boehner have to do with the debates for republican candidates? Why is he not more concerned as a sitting speaker of the house with the business of the nation. Or better yet call them back into a special session a week early? We pay them for God’s sake and i never had a job that gave me as much time off or perks than what congress has given themselves. Already I am sick of the bullshit that is only going to be worse for the next 14 months.
I See their LOOOOOOONG vacation from each other has made neither side any more palatable.
Mark, the force that animates the orb has decreed that there will be mo conflict.
I hope he’s right with his “keys”.
Me too.
And they have the audacity to criticize teachers for time off! I agree with your questioning those 4 points, I would add another – there is not YET a third party candidate – I signed in at americanselect.org and am curious to see what if anything develops, also we haven’t heard from Hillary yet! I will not vote at all if it’s a choice between two evils – which I am only too disappointed that our conciliatory O has become! Really – acquiescing to every Boehner demand is too much!
I am disgusted with the sitting president ( who incidentally just started a WH petition site, theoretically to address issues that are most popular among the “people” ) and I’m disgusted with fellow citizens who I can’t believe are as stupid as they actually are!
This morning on Morning Joe I heard that the parties are too extreme – and I must say absolutely NO! The republicans have become extreme, but in my day the democrats were represented by far more liberal constituents than we see today – Kennedy (all of them) were “representatives” of the party – they were “liberal” – Pelosi represents the party of “yesterday” she is “liberal” – Maxine Waters represents the “liberal” party – but the democrats are no longer represented by “liberals” – it is represented by moderate republicans – so that being the case, if I am not represented any longer – I won’t vote – I’ll simply sit back and watch the damn country self destruct!
Lee, in theory, Americans Elect is a great idea, but it’s purpose is to dilute votes on the left. It’s start-up was funded by Hedge Fund Manager, Peter Ackerman, a Bankster who is also heavily invested in privatizing Social Security. Don’t be fooled.
thanks TomCat – I sort of suspected such – I guess I’ll probably sit out this next election – and watch the dice roll – no big deal – the results are negative every time anyway!
You’re welcome, Lee. Republicans are pros at creating slick fronts to lead people astray. I hope you realize that by not voting against Republicans you are helping them.
I certainly agree with your highlighting the questions/answers that you did, Tom. No social unrest! What the hell? 🙄 There are millions on Care2.com alone who might disagree with that. Charismatic? Good grief, how much more charismatic can he get to be! And apparently he’d have to blow himself and the rest of us up to have a “foreign affairs” failure. On the video he says that’s a point for Obama because of the killing of Osama bin Laden. [shoulder shrug] ❓ I’m glad that this method shows the Prez. winning, primarily because the opposition is so odious that the thought of voting for them is completely out of the question.
Lee’s answer above is certainly understandable. Frustration is very, very high for many of us. But I don’t think I will choose not to vote. For one thing, LESS evil is still less evil and the other side is more evil. A non-vote for the ‘less’ amounts to a vote for the ‘more,’ and that is totally unacceptable to me. I’m also still hoping that this very intelligent, mature President has been doing what he’s had to do in order for the opposition to show its true colors so the American people will learn and will vote in many more Dems/Is to Congress. The lesson hadn’t been learned by 2010, but perhaps by 2012, with the Teabagger Governors and congresspeople making fools of themselves, they will choose to give a chance to more Dems. Then the Prez. will be able to make the moves we’ve wanted to see him make all this time. I’m hoping the “lame duck” Prez becomes the tiger we thought he was! I’m still hoping. 🙂
Welcome Caitlin. 🙂
I’m with you. Also see my reply to Lee about Americans Elect.
Interesting– will keep for reference-
Thanks Phyllis.
So far he has always been right. I hope he is this time.
As do I!
Rome wasn’t built in a day and our economy wasn’t wrecked in one either. It will take steady work to build it back up. I really don’t want to change horses in mid stream (sorry about the cliches but they’re accurate shorthand). I really want to vote Green party because of its platform but if it seems to be very close I dont’ want to let the TP man in. That would be disaster for all social programs including education.
I agree Blue. I love the Green platform, but they are a wasted vote.
He’s gotta win. I did a double take when I saw “charismatic–Point republicans.” Say WHAT? Maybe only to other Republicans.
Welcome Anne! 🙂
I almost missed that, because it was so obviously wrong!
VERY important info on America Elect — they suckered me in, now I’m outta there. Many thanks.
YVW, Ann. Those GOPers can be sneaky little bastards.
Very interesting. I wonder if he has a Canadian Version or if this one could be adapted. Here Mr Harper is not particularly well liked (personally I think he is a weasel!) and if you look at the popular vote, you realise that only 36% of the people voted for the Conservatives. But he has a majority government.
And about not voting, if you don’t vote you do not have the right to bitch because you effectively voted for the other side. I remember an ad in a Superman comic from I was a kid (really long time ago!). In it, a kid throws down his bike on the sidewalk outside his brownstone, outs a piece of gum into his mouth and throws the wrapper on the ground. He goes into the house for a few minutes and then comes out ready to pick up his bike and go tearing off again. When he gets outside again, he is confronted by thousands of bicycles all piled willy-nilly and millions of gum wrappers. Superman tells him that it might seem like he is just throwing down his bike and his gum wrapper, but if everyone did the same, there would be a big mess. Obviously this made a big impact on me if I can remember it 50 years later.
We don’t know what other people are going to do with their vote, we only know about our own. Don’t be part of the problem, be part of the solution. Voter apathy is what allows despots and morons to govern.
BTW, I hope Mr Obama and the Democrats win in 2012 with a healthy majority. If I were American, I would be a Democrat.
Lynn, that would be very difficult, because our electoral sysyems are as different as night and day. Frankly, I prefer yours.
Republican rule is the punishment for people who don’t vote.