After poll after poll saying that Democrats are going to take it in the shorts this November, here’s one that gives us an even shot. However, one thing I learned from years in the opinion research business is that, this early, generic ballot polls are not really predictive.
Nervous Democratic incumbents in Congress received a sliver of good news Thursday from a new poll that found them tied with Republicans when people were asked which party they’d vote for in November.
However, the bipartisan Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll found that, by a 9-point margin, most voters still think that the GOP will reclaim control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Still, when they were asked which party they’d vote for if they had to do it today, both Democrats and Republicans registered 43 percent.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the survey with GOP pollster Ed Goeas, said the results proved that Democratic incumbents weren’t as dead in the water as pundits thought.
Recent polls have projected a Republican tidal wave that could give the GOP more than the 39 House seats it needs to add to wrest the speaker’s gavel from Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Republicans need to gain 10 seats to take control of the Senate.
"It’s a tough battleground, but it is a battleground, still," Lake said. "It’s a tough, tough environment for both parties, and both parties are going to find some surprises in November. This electorate is relishing upsetting the status quo."
Goeas said that Republicans retained a formidable advantage because their base and angry independents appeared more motivated to vote than Democrats did… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <McClatchy DC>
The reason it doesn’t matter very much is that, especially in midterm elections, the likely voters demographic grows. Sad as it is, most voter’s minds are on their favorite football or baseball teams, fantasies about a Hooters waitress, getting the kids back to school, finding a job, keeping their job, the latest music video, the next episode of their favorite reality TV show… everything and anything but politics. The vast majority of Americans won’t even give the midterms serious thought until mid-October. It’s a national shame.
Most survey savvy folks know from experience that saying that they do not intend to vote is the easy way to get out of taking the survey, and and many more say they aren’t voting to express fristration when they really will when the time comes. So the likely voters taking the poll are the committed activists on both sides, along with lonely people who are glad the researcher called just to have someone to talk to. They are not at all predictive of who will actually vote.
Now the danger here is this. The lopsided results in most polls demonstrate that more of the activists on the right are engaged than of those on the left. If the left gets busy, there is still ample time to recover.
One disparate finding was the nine point spread that people think the GOP will take the House and the Senate. It seems contradictory that the same people split evenly on the generic ballot would yield this result, but there’s a reason. The MSM have been saying just that, over and over again, based on the inaccurate generic ballot polls, and that’s what people are hearing.
Therefore it is very important that we encourage people get active, organize, and vote.
24 Responses to “The Latest Poll and Why it Doesn’t Matter”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Brother you know 6 months ago I was threatening to sit this one out. Truth be told though the first time I voted was absentee while I was in the military and 18 and have never disregarded any vote not even single issue minor ones about millage renewals. Now that you know this and everything else I have said you know I am pushing everyone I know NOW and will continue until election day to get them to vote and hopefully they swing left. I do know some insane sons a bitches though so you never know.
I remember well, Mark, and I did my best to encourage you to vote. I think your insane friends are more likely to come down on our side, because I can’t see people in your circle empty enough to do the other way.
I think it’s too early to get worried about polls. The one where people think the GOP will take both the House and Senate is just what you say it is, this is all they hear on TV and blogs. I think it’s bullsh*t! There’s still time for the White House to get out of pussy mode and into fighting mode. They HAVE TO GET OUT THEIR MESSAGE. The GOP/Teabaggers are dangerous for our country and must not get power!
Thanks Sue. I agree.
I agree with TC – the election is nearly 2 months off and by that time everyone should have all their summer stuff in and the pool boy (Otis) can close the pool. I’ll pick the last of my veggies from the garden and freeze them. But first I have to clean out the freezer, otherwise we WILL have an avalanche potential. If Armeggedon comes here, come to my house. I can feed about 30 people out of my freezer alone (that’s just the outside freezer). Otis has named my food OCD Bob. Hey, you always have what you want to eat eh? Then STFU. It does need to be cleaned out, but it’s full of steaks, prime rib (yummy) beef stew meat, fish, crab legs (yes, King crab, is there any other kind? and fish.) And no I don’t hunt my own food – not like the tundra twat. I like to pretend that it wasn’t an animal before I ate it. 🙄
Prime rib and king crab? Purrrrr!! 😀
Yes, thye economy is still terrible, but I have a very hard time believing the electorate is going to swing en masse back to the very same yahoos who screwed it up in the first place. The electorate has been dumbed-down by the nonstop harping of the corporate media, talk radio, and Fox “News”, but I seriously doubt they will elect idiots like O’Donnell or Angle this year, or even Palin in 2012.
Jack, as I see it, the only way we fail big is if the majority of the electorate stays home.
I always vote, regardless, even if it is a “revenge” or “anti” vote. Polls? Don’t believe ’em. Another great piece of work Tom.
So do I Mike. Thanks. People who do not vote deserve Republican government.
I think you hit the nail on the head – the MSM have been hyping this pending Republican victory so much that people believe it, even if they personally won’t vote Republican. We have to make sure the Dems get out and vote in November. If the GOP takes over it will be a disaster. Especially if it’s Tea Party candidates!
Thanks, Mimi! That’s exactly what I’m trying to accomplish.
2010 House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls, Undecided Voters and Election Fraud
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Sept. 15, 2010
The 2010 Senate and House forecast models will be updated on a regular basis as new polling data becomes available. The models consider the difference between likely voter (LV) and registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2004, LV polls have accurately projected the recorded vote while RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls. Final RV polls gave the Democrats a 2-4% higher vote share than the LV polls.
Based on a mix of RV and LV polls, the Senate Forecast Simulation Model indicates that the Democratic majority will shrink to 53-45.
The LV poll projections indicate a 50-48 Democratic Senate.
The Democratic projection increased by one as result of the Delaware GOP primary.
Based on the latest 13 Generic RV polls (the GOP leads by 47.3-41.9%), the Generic Poll Forecasting Model projects a 233-202 GOP House majority.
The latest 7 LV polls (47.4-37.7%) project a 239-196 majority.
Go here for the latest results:
http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm
Welcome, Richard. 🙂
Thanks for the info. I think your data might be a tiny bit better if you dodn’t include pollsters with a tendency to push, like Rasmussen and Fox, but most of the data is excellent. I look forward to seeing what it is a month from now, when it’s more significant.
Thanks for the welcome.
I just updated the model to include a poerful probability analysis.
As for Rasmussen, I am well aware that he is a biased GOP pollster who just does LV polls.
That is why I show the RVs and LVs and break out the pollsters for 2010.
The model is unique because it is the only one that quantifies the election fraud factor.
NO OTHER ANALYST EVEN TALKS ABOUT IT.
The LV polls project the bogus recorded vote quite well.
The RV polls are a much better indicator of the TRUE VOTE.
Unfortunately, the public only gets to see the final LV polls which match the corrupted recorded vote.
IN ADDITION, FINAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE BOGUS RECORDED VOTE (I.E. THE LV POLLS).
Take a close look at the 2004, 2006,2008 results.
This text will appear in every update.
Richard
Thanks!
Only the last week before the election is usually of any significance toward the results. This is why the ad sales become almost totally political in nature, for this is the week when minds get swayed for the last time.
But this doesn’t remove the stigma from Obama and the Democrats for making so many bad decisions over the previous two years. It just means that they have to come up with something spectacular that actually does something for those mired in the depths of Main Street. The Republicans are perfectly placed to see to it that this is a difficult effort, which means the Democrats will have to point fingers to derive any benefit, something they have been loathe to do previous to this month.
So it comes down to whether or not the Democrats can successfully man up. I’m not going to hold my breath. I’m not interested in suffocating.
Welcome Realist. I hear you. Democrats pandering to the right has been a source of frustration to me. Even before Obama was nominated, let alone elected, I was saying that his intent to include Republicans in his policy decisions was futile, because bipatrisanship is impossible with people who refuse to share the sand box. He and the Democratic leadership screwed up big time trying to make that happen.
Either DEM way, no poll is needed to know We the People will Take it in the SHORTS.
Bruce, whem you say “We the prople”, are you referring to the Tea minority?
Hey TomCat.
What I’ve seen over the years is Democrats and Democrat leaning people becoming more and more quiet while right leaning and rabid righties becoming louder and louder.
The polls are meaningless to me because so many people don’t use land lines that pollers have numbers for. Backward thinking tea bagger types still use landlines and love to spew their right wing propaganda they got from Rush of FOX News to anyone that will listen. A phone call from a pollster gives them an audience.
It’s a shame that people with progressive views have been hushed. I’m evidence of that. I was one of three liberal bloggers in my old community and was ripped on regularly. A person writing a letter to the editor with a left point of view got hater mail against them published by crazy righties within days. Nothing refuting with facts. Just nonsense about being a commie or socialist.
Unbelievable the paper wqould publish this crap but it sells papers I guess.
LOL, Ayatollah Joe!! 😉
The pollsters do have cell phone numbers now. My cell is my only phone, and I’ve already received a couple of calls. I tell them I will take the survey, if they call me back on Saturday, when it is not burning minutes.
When I used to blog under my own name, I received death threats more than once.
This remind of me Tony Robbins. One of the things he talks about is basically self-fulfilling prophesies: most people believe that the Republicans will reclaim control of the House and Senate. The mood of the electorate is very important for both persuading voters (hard to convince someone to change their vote when they think it’s a forgone conclusion in the first place) and for get out the vote (why vote when it’s a forgone conclusion)
Welcome Ben. 🙂
That’s why it’s so important to be involved in changing that mindset.