Generic Ballot Woes: Who’s at Fault?

Gallup’s generic ballot poll was a disaster for Democrats.  In itself, that’s important, but to have a chance of turning it around, we need to know who and what has caused this dire situation.

The Gallup organization dropped a bomb on the political world this week. In shorthand, the pollsters said Monday that if the midterm elections were held now, Republicans would take control of the House – and probably by a comfortable margin.

On Tuesday, James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, weighed in with a prediction based on his modeling of the political climate. He said that Republicans are poised to gain 51 or 52 House seats, at least 11 more than needed to depose the Democrats.

Election Day is still two months away, but the twin findings added to the fear among Democrats that their House majority – and possibly their Senate majority as well – is in jeopardy.

For decades, Gallup has asked voters the following question: "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?"

This week’s survey produced the largest lead for the Republicans in the history of asking that question: 51 percent to 41 percent. Ninety-six percent of Republicans said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while 88 percent of Democrats said they would support the Democrat. Independents, who helped power Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, split 48 percent to 31 percent for Republicans… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <Washington Post>

Keith Olbermann and Richard Wolfe discussed this issue:

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For responsibility, let’s start with the Nevada Leg Hound, Harry Reid.  He has been too busy humping Republican legs go do his job.  At the end of the first session, it was clear that the Republican agenda was to obstruct by filibustering every bill.  He could have acted to change the filibuster and secret hold rules at the beginning of the current session.  He failed to act.  Had the Senate passed even half of what the House did and not critically weakened what did pass, we would not be in this situation.  If we are fortunate enough to keep the Senate majority, Harry Reid should be replaced.

Second, responsibility falls on Barack Obama himself.  He promised ‘change we can believe in’.  Then he appointed Geithner, Bernanke, and Summers and other corporate Democrats with few progressives.  One of the reasons I voted for him over Clinton is that I feared that Clinton would appoint those three.  In addition, he has persisted in foolish attempts at bipartisanship, even though it became clear long ago that Republicans will not respond, other than by wanting him dead.  He has been quick to forgive conservative appointees for egregious offences, and equally quick to throw progressives under the bus at the slightest bogus rumor from Fox, the Republican Reichsministry of Propaganda.  He needs to remember who put him in office and deliver on his promises.  His only way to succeed is through his progressive base.

Third, I blame the traditional media.  They have failed to fact-check their reports and given Republican lies equal weight with Democratic truths.

Fourth, the anti-Obama progressives are undermining the party.  That poll is of likely voters, and Keith pointed out that far too many Democrats don’t even plan to vote.  Of those that do plan to vote, I am appalled that 12% of Democrats say a Democrat won’t get their vote.  I’m not telling you not to criticize.  I do, and we should.  But unless we support this party, flawed as it is, we’ll have John “Agent Orange” Boehner as our next speaker.