On Obama and Iran

Just when we thought that there might be a chance of progress with Iran, we received news that had GOP fear mongers foaming at the mouth in delight.

President Obama and his allies raced Friday to use their revelation of a secret Iranian nuclear enrichment plant as long-sought leverage against Tehran, demanding that the country allow highly intrusive international inspections and propelling the confrontation with Tehran to a new and volatile pitch.

In a day of high drama at an economic summit meeting, American, British and French officials declassified some of their most closely held intelligence and scrambled to describe a multiyear Iranian effort, tracked by spies on the ground and satellites above, to build a secret uranium enrichment plant deep inside a mountain.

The new plant, which Iran strongly denied was intended to be kept secret or used for making weapons, is months away from completion and does nothing to shorten intelligence estimates of how long it would take Iran to produce a bomb. American intelligence officials say it will take at least a year, perhaps five, for Iran to develop the full ability to make a nuclear weapon.

But the finding so cemented a sense of what Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain called “the serial deception of many years” that it led to a rare Russian rebuke of Iran, and a milder warning from China, two countries crucial to Mr. Obama’s efforts to back up diplomacy with far tougher sanctions.

Mr. Obama’s aides and a raft of intelligence officials argued that the small, hidden plant was unsuitable for producing reactor fuel that might be used in a peaceful nuclear program. Moreover, its location, deep inside an Iranian Revolutionary Guards base about 20 miles from the religious center of Qum, strongly suggested it was designed for covert use in weapons, they said.

Late Friday afternoon, preparing to return to Washington, Mr. Obama issued a stark warning about the nuclear negotiations that are to begin next week, the first direct talks between the two countries in 30 years.

“Iran is on notice that when we meet with them on Oct. 1 they are going to have to come clean and they will have to make a choice,” he said. The alternative to giving up their program, he warned, is to “continue down a path that is going to lead to confrontation.”

It seemed unlikely that by “confrontation” Mr. Obama meant military action. While the president said that option was still on the table, Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates said on CNN on Friday that “the reality is that there is no military option that does anything more than buy time — the estimates are three years or so.”

Mr. Obama said he had withheld making the intelligence public for months because it “is very important in these kind of high-stakes situations to make sure the intelligence is right”— a clear allusion to former President George W. Bush’s release of intelligence on Iraq seven years ago this month that proved baseless. Mr. Obama’s hand was forced, however, after Iran, apparently learning that the site had been discovered by Western intelligence, delivered a vague, terse letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday disclosing that it was building a second plant, one that it had never mentioned during years of inspections… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <NY Times>

I’ve already heard rumblings about Obama’s weakness and naiveté from the rabid right.  But they just don’t get it.  Obama knew about this since he took office, and instead of being blindsided, as the GOP would have you believe, he has planned a wise strategy to deal with it.

Obama knew all along that Iran had a secret uranium factory. He may be more of a master strategist than his foes–and even his friends–have realized.

The key to understanding today’s announcement on Iran is this: President Obama knew about the secret Iranian facility nine months ago. Before he began his strategy of engagement, he knew Iran was lying about its program. When he extended his hand in friendship, he knew Iran had built a secret factory to enrich uranium. Before he offered direct talks, he knew Iran was hiding a nuclear weapons breakout capability.

Each move was denounced as "weak" and "naïve" by the right. That talk looks foolish today. These were the moves of chess master, carefully positioning pieces on the board, laying a trap, and springing it at the opportune moment.

We now know that Obama was not acting on impulse, or philosophy or general principles, but on deep strategy. He knew better than his critics that Ahmadinejad could not be trusted. He just had a better plan for how to deal with him.

Obama is now well positioned to unite world leaders in a long-term strategy to back Iran away from nuclear weapons. While some nations mistrusted the previous administration–fearing a repeat of the Iraq War–they have more confidence in Obama. They don’t believe he will use military force, except as a last resort.

Meanwhile, Obama’s missile defense decision–a move that puts more military assets in position more quickly against the Iranian missiles–not only increases the pressure on Iran but allows Russia to move closer to the U.S. position without appearing to be buckling to America.

Obama’s open hand also undercut Ahmadinejad at home. Previously, he was able to use the nuclear program as a nationalist rallying cry, posing as the warrior president defending the nation against Western attack. He kept the reform movement down and IAEA inspectors out. Obama’s strategy of engagement has foiled Ahmadinejad, allowing the forces of reform to surge in Iran. Without the threat of a US attack, Iranian opposition leaders have more freedom of movement and are less vulnerable to the government claims that they are tools of US imperialism.

Internationally, Obama is restoring American credibility… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <Huffington Post>

Imagine, if you will, what our response might have been id GW Warmonger were still pResident.  Cheney would be drooling  blood and demanding a nuclear strike.  Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter, Beck and the other GOP leaders would be blaming it on Bill Clinton.  We would have moved to immediate confrontation and launched a preemptive war.  Bush and the GOP were doing their best to manufacture an excuse for war with Iran.  Even the relatively mild John McConJob became infamous for singing “Bomb Bomb Iran”, not realizing that his microphone was live.

In contrast, consider Obama’s careful response.  He has already organized the international support needed to bring real economic pressure to bear against Iran while providing for the defense of Iran’s neighbors.  My biggest worry is the need to restrain Israel.  Qom is one of the holiest cities for the Shia sect and Iran’s center for Shia learning.  An attack anywhere near that location would spark a jihad from Shiites the world over.  And an Israeli attack would be deemed as having US sanction.  I trust that Obama’s reasoned approach will, in time, resolve the situation without Violence.